Novo Nordisk A/S
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The substance is beyond dispute: equity ratio 36.4 percent, Aa3/AA ratings, DKK 121.0 billion of operating cash flow in the first nine months of 2026 — there is no solvency risk in the sense of our traffic light. One material operating question is open, and a big one: whether volume can offset the price decline is unproven. The company itself guides to minus 2 to plus 2 percent adjusted for 2026, the diabetes core is shrinking, the Wegovy injectable is losing US revenue, and on January 1, 2027 the US list price drops by about half. Hence yellow — not because of the share price, but because of that open question.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Novo Nordisk is one of the two companies shaping the global GLP-1 market: financially first-rate, with volumes that are growing strongly while its realized prices fall. The third quarter of 2026 brought 4 percent adjusted growth and the year’s third outlook upgrade, to minus 2 to plus 2 percent; the midpoint, however, arithmetically leaves a decline for the final quarter. Add DKK 15.0 billion of impairments in nine months, an announced halving of the US list price on January 1, 2027 and a change of CFO. Whoever invests is betting that volume will overtake price. Not investment advice.
Market position and demand
Novo Nordisk is one of the two companies shaping the global GLP-1 market. At the end of September 2026, 5.6 million people were treated with the group’s obesity drugs, 75 percent more than twelve months earlier; the obesity franchise grew 22 percent at constant exchange rates in the third quarter of 2026. The Wegovy pill has passed eight million prescriptions since its US launch on January 5, 2026.
Balance sheet and financial strength
As of September 30, 2026, the equity ratio stood at 36.4 percent (DKK 217.8 billion of 599.2 billion), net debt at DKK 79.7 billion and operating cash flow over nine months at DKK 121.0 billion. Credit ratings are Aa3 (Moody’s) and AA (S&P) according to the half-year report. No solvency risk is apparent.
Earnings quality and transparency
Reported revenue rose 13 percent in the first nine months of 2026, adjusted revenue 2 percent; the DKK 26.8 billion gap is a provision reversal with no cash impact. In the third quarter the picture flipped on profit: adjusted plus 27 percent, reported minus 9 percent because of DKK 8.7 billion of impairments; the adjusted increase rests mainly on a prior-year quarter burdened by restructuring costs. On the plus side, Novo Nordisk shows both series side by side and names the effects itself.
Pricing
US sales of the Wegovy injectable fell 13 percent at constant exchange rates in the third quarter of 2026 and 15 percent after nine months — on rising volumes, because of lower realized prices. Effective January 1, 2027, the group cuts the US list price of Wegovy and Ozempic to $675 (roughly minus 50 and 35 percent), with an expected hit to 2027 cash flow. The adjusted gross margin recovered to 82.1 percent in the third quarter, mainly through savings.
Outlook
The 2026 outlook was raised three times, most recently on November 4, 2026 to minus 2 to plus 2 percent for adjusted sales and operating profit. After plus 2 percent in nine months, the midpoint arithmetically leaves about minus 7 percent for the fourth quarter, and the free cash flow guidance an outflow of DKK 14 to 24 billion. Management gave no figure for 2027.
Pipeline and dependence
By far most revenue depends on the semaglutide molecule. Ziltivekimab has failed after ZEUS and HERMES, and major impairments total DKK 15.0 billion in nine months. Hopes rest on CagriSema (US launch planned for early 2027, subject to approval) and Frehemgo; Frehemgo’s US approval is delayed by required remediation at the manufacturing facility.
Worth Noting
Hook: on August 13, 2026 Novo Nordisk ranked among the most-discussed names on the hot list of a large German retail-investor forum — an attention signal, not a quality signal. This edition updates the analysis to the report of November 4, 2026.
Data basis: SEC annual report on Form 20-F for 2025 (2026-02-04) and Forms 6-K through 2026-11-04 (report on the first nine months of 2026); every 6-K through 2026-11-05 reviewed. Earnings call statements of 2026-11-04 per a machine-generated transcript published by Investing.com. Market data as of November 6, 2026.
Risk of confusion: Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) is not the same as Novo Holdings A/S, the controlling shareholder, nor Novonesis A/S, the enzyme group also controlled by the foundation.
Currency note: Novo Nordisk reports under IFRS in Danish kroner, while the ADR trades in dollars. The conversion anchor is the November 6, 2026 rate of about DKK 6.71 per dollar. Altman Z-score and net current asset value per share are deliberately not shown.
Stock Watch
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 35.30 $ to 64.00 $ · Last price: 41.10 $ (As of: November 11, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 11/12/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novo Nordisk A/S NVO | 178.8 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 83.3 | 42.5 | 6.4 | -12.2 |
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | 1,281.7 | 55.9 | 26.9 | 83.6 | 49.4 | 44.7 | 46.3 |
| Johnson & Johnson JNJ | 653.0 | 34.5 | 25.8 | 67.8 | 27.4 | 6.1 | 47.9 |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | 514.3 | 156.2 | 24.9 | 73.7 | 32.2 | 8.6 | 34.9 |
| Merck & Company Inc MRK | 351.0 | 43.1 | 28.9 | 75.2 | 38.6 | 1.2 | 66.6 |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | 251.0 | 33.4 | 16.0 | 72.5 | 33.8 | 9.9 | 42.2 |
| Gilead Sciences Inc GILD | 210.4 | 24.2 | 175.4 | 80.0 | 39.3 | 2.4 | 41.9 |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | 173.6 | 23.9 | 16.0 | 74.9 | 31.6 | -1.7 | 23.2 |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | 129.9 | 18.1 | 10.1 | 70.5 | 33.0 | -0.2 | 34.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 251.0 | 33.4 | 24.9 | 74.9 | 33.8 | 6.1 | 41.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year krM
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (krM) | EBIT (krM) | Net Income (krM) | EPS (kr) | Operating Cash Flow (krM) | Equity (krM) | Total Assets (krM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 111,780 | 48,432 | 37,925 | 7.48 | 48,314 | 45,269 | 97,539 |
| 2017 | 111,696 | 48,967 | 38,130 | 7.69 | 41,168 | 49,815 | 102,355 |
| 2018 | 111,831 | 47,248 | 38,628 | 7.97 | 44,616 | 51,839 | 110,769 |
| 2019 | 122,021 | 52,483 | 38,951 | 8.19 | 46,782 | 57,593 | 125,612 |
| 2020 | 126,946 | 54,126 | 42,138 | 9.00 | 51,951 | 63,325 | 144,922 |
| 2021 | 140,800 | 58,644 | 47,757 | 10.37 | 55,000 | 70,746 | 194,508 |
| 2022 | 176,954 | 74,809 | 55,525 | 12.22 | 78,887 | 83,486 | 241,257 |
| 2023 | 232,261 | 102,574 | 83,683 | 18.62 | 108,908 | 106,561 | 314,486 |
| 2024 | 290,403 | 128,339 | 100,988 | 22.63 | 120,968 | 143,486 | 465,795 |
| 2025 | 309,064 | 127,658 | 102,434 | 23.03 | 119,102 | 194,047 | 542,902 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales (krM) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF (krM) | FCF (krM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q3 | 6.12 | 738.40 | 71,311 | 21.40 | 38.30 | 43,850 | 31,346 |
| 2024: Q4 | 6.34 | 793.00 | 85,683 | 30.10 | 32.90 | 12,301 | -4,257 |
| 2025: Q1 | 6.53 | 686.70 | 78,087 | 19.50 | 37.20 | 24,591 | 10,005 |
| 2025: Q2 | 5.96 | 803.00 | 76,857 | 12.90 | 34.50 | 40,785 | 24,510 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.02 | -83.30 | 74,976 | 5.10 | 26.70 | 46,107 | 30,692 |
| 2025: Q4 | 6.04 | -4.70 | 79,144 | -7.60 | 34.00 | 7,619 | -36,218 |
| 2026: Q1 | 6.63 | 1.50 | 96,823 | 24.00 | 50.20 | 24,084 | 12,045 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.96 | -83.90 | 78,488 | 2.10 | 26.70 | 55,199 | 42,398 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 2 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate (kr) | EPS Range (kr) | Revenue Estimate (krM) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 22.39 | 21.01 – 24.25 | 307,859 | -2.8% | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | 22.89 | 21.73 – 23.74 | 310,778 | 2.3% | 7 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
AI classification
AI Rating
In sämtlichen SEC-Berichten von Novo Nordisk — Jahresbericht 20-F für 2025 und allen Zwischenmitteilungen 6-K bis 05.11.2026 einschließlich des Berichts zu den ersten neun Monaten 2026 vom 04.11.2026 — kommt kein einziger Beleg für Künstliche Intelligenz vor: weder „artificial intelligence“ noch „machine learning“ noch ein Algorithmus- oder Datenanalyse-Bezug als Geschäfts-, Produkt- oder Kostenfaktor; das Geschäft beruht ausschließlich auf Wirkstoffforschung, Zulassung und Vertrieb von Peptid- und Proteinpräparaten.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 6-K 2026-11-04 · 20-F 2026-02-04 · 6-K 2026-08-04 · 6-K 2026-08-04 · 6-K 2026-07-31 · 6-K 2026-05-06 · 6-K 2026-02-03
Rated on November 8, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 20.4%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -76.4%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 15.8%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 81.0%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 3.7%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.7 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 61,873 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 39.0%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.0%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
7/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 12.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 0.3%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 11.4%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -0.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 0.8x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 3.5%
- Return on equity > 15% 160.1%
- ROCE > 15% 39.0%
- Expected return > 10% 2.1%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas. The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of rare blood disorders, rare endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company also provides NovoPen 6 and NovoPen Echo Plus, smart insulin pens; Dose Check, an insulin dose guidance application; growth hormone pens and injection needles; and Wegovy pill an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy for weight management. It operates in Europe, Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Novo Nordisk A/S was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.
- Employees
- 68,794
- Headquarters
- Bagsvaerd, Denmark
- Address
- Novo Alle 1, 2880 Bagsvaerd, Denmark
- Phone
- 45 44 44 88 88
- Website
- novonordisk.com
- IPO Date
- 01/04/1982
- ISIN
- US6701002056
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 09/20/2023
- Stock Split
- 5:1 on 01/09/2014
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 12/17/2007
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Karsten Munk Knudsen | Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board | 1971 |
| Maziar Mike Doustdar B.A. | President, CEO & Member of the Management Board | 1970 |
| Martin Holst Lange | EVP of R&D, Chief Scientific Officer and Member of the Management Board | 1970 |
| Tania Sabroe | EVP of People, Organisation and Corporate Affairs & Member of Management Board | 1977 |
| Thilde Hummel Bogebjerg | Executive VP of Enterprise IT & Quality and Member of Management Board | 1982 |
| Michael Novod | Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations | 1979 |
| Robin Evers | Senior Vice President of Medical Affairs, Regulatory and Safety | 1970 |
| Xia-Ping Zhou | Senior VP & President of China | – |
| Frederik Kier | Senior Vice President of Global Obesity Unit | – |
| Mads Frederik Rasmussen | Senior VP & Head of Clinical Drug Development | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Data as of: November 11, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.