Alector Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The traffic light is yellow, not red: the negative equity at June 30, 2026 stems from $162.9 million of deferred GSK revenue that does not have to be repaid, the company says its cash lasts into 2029, and there is no financial debt — so no substance risk in the sense of over-indebtedness or a short runway is on the record. What remains open is the essential operating question: after five halted candidates, it is unproven that the ABC platform works in humans. Until the first AL137 trial, this is a bet on research, not on a business. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Alector is a research company with a full safe and an empty clinic: five candidates are halted and no trial is running, but the Genentech agreement lifts pro forma cash to $223.7 million — roughly its market value on October 5, 2026. The billion-dollar headline is a ceiling, 13 to 19 percent of which goes to Spur. Investors are buying cash meant to be turned into research by 2029, plus an option on a brain ferry that has never been tested in humans. Not investment advice.
Clinical track record
Five drug candidates halted in the clinic (four per the 2025 10-K, nivisnebart in April 2026), no active trial per the 10-Q for June 30, 2026; every wholly owned program is preclinical, and the next human trial is planned for no later than April 2027.
Cash & runway
Pro forma $223.7 million in cash and marketable securities as of September 30, 2026 (preliminary and unaudited $138.7 million plus $100 million from Genentech minus $15 million to Spur), no financial debt since July 8, 2026, runway into 2029 per the company.
Partnerships
Genentech pays $100 million upfront for AL050 (up to $1.17 billion in milestones), but 13 to 19 percent of milestones go to Spur, Genentech can terminate at any time, and GSK ends the former flagship collaboration effective January 2, 2027.
Earnings & balance sheet quality
Losses every year since 2019 (2025: −$142.9 million), accumulated deficit $1,018.0 million (June 30, 2026); equity −$9.97 million due to $162.9 million of deferred revenue that is likely to show up as a non-cash book gain when the contract ends.
Dilution
At-the-market program for $125 million since May 7, 2026 (unused through June 30, 2026) — at the October 5, 2026 price roughly 63 million new shares against 111.66 million outstanding; plus 12.7 million potentially dilutive securities.
Worth Noting
Alector reached our research list via the Reddit hype scanner (7 mentions in 24 hours, ApeWisdom, as of October 6, 2026), triggered by the announcement of the Genentech agreement on October 5, 2026. The stock is not a metrics-scanner hit.
The cash figures for September 30, 2026 ($138.7 million, $223.7 million pro forma) are preliminary and unaudited; per the 8-K, the auditor has neither audited nor reviewed them. The 10-Q for September 30, 2026 was not yet available as of our data date.
Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: market value of about $222 million from 111,656,919 shares (10-Q cover, July 31, 2026) × closing price of $1.99 (October 5, 2026); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. The milestones of up to $1.17 billion are contractual maximums, not expected values.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 6, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ALEC since then.
Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.
Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 1.10 $ to 2.70 $ · Last price: 2.20 $ (As of: November 2, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 11/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alector Inc ALEC | 0.2 | – | -8.4 | -615.1 | – | -79.1 | 46.3 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | 139.9 | 32.9 | 25.7 | 55.0 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 30.0 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN | 99.9 | 24.2 | 14.3 | 51.2 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 42.6 |
| Moderna Inc MRNA | 87.6 | – | 4.6 | -66.0 | -131.1 | -39.2 | 687.9 |
| argenx NV ARGX | 54.4 | 33.4 | 26.2 | 59.8 | 32.0 | 89.6 | 8.8 |
| BeiGene, Ltd. ONC | 40.9 | 64.5 | 33.8 | 88.9 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 16.4 |
| Revolution Medicines Inc RVMD | 39.1 | – | -9.7 | -174,708.6 | 0.0 | -100.0 | 225.0 |
| Royalty Pharma Plc RPRX | 36.6 | 36.0 | 20.8 | 95.8 | 100.3 | 5.1 | 85.4 |
| Genmab AS GMAB | 34.2 | 43.2 | 24.7 | 93.0 | 35.2 | -82.7 | 99.0 |
| Median of companies shown | 40.9 | 34.7 | 20.8 | 55.0 | 26.3 | 1.0 | 46.3 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | -15 | -15 | -1.78 | -13 | -25 | 54 |
| 2017 | 4 | -33 | -32 | -0.63 | -18 | -52 | 236 |
| 2018 | 28 | -57 | -52 | -0.76 | 127 | -97 | 308 |
| 2019 | 21 | -114 | -100 | -1.62 | -99 | 195 | 422 |
| 2020 | 21 | -195 | -183 | -2.35 | -167 | 268 | 488 |
| 2021 | 207 | -37 | -28 | -0.35 | 299 | 301 | 815 |
| 2022 | 134 | -138 | -133 | -1.62 | -20 | 214 | 788 |
| 2023 | 97 | -152 | -130 | -1.56 | -184 | 134 | 622 |
| 2024 | 101 | -145 | -119 | -1.23 | -230 | 127 | 468 |
| 2025 | 21 | -146 | -143 | -1.39 | -184 | 31 | 293 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.02 | – | 54 | 257.10 | -3.80 | -55 | -55 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.41 | – | 4 | -76.90 | -1,101.60 | -61 | -61 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.30 | – | 8 | -47.80 | -387.70 | -49 | -49 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.34 | – | 3 | -78.80 | -1,063.40 | -33 | -33 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.36 | – | 6 | -88.50 | -597.50 | -42 | -42 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.21 | – | 1 | -71.50 | -2,192.20 | -50 | -50 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.21 | 30.00 | 3 | -58.20 | -697.00 | -34 | -34 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.50 | -0.82 – -0.03 | 66 | 63.7% | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.73 | -0.99 – -0.43 | 11 | -45.6% | 5 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Alector entwickelt Wirkstoffe gegen Alzheimer und Parkinson und verkauft keine KI-Produkte; der Geschäftsbericht 10-K für 2025 belegt aber den operativen Einsatz von maschinellem Lernen in der Forschung (Zielauswahl über genetische Mutationen), die Quartalsberichte 2026 planen zusätzliche interne KI-Infrastruktur. KI ist Werkzeug, keine Umsatzquelle; die KI-Risikofaktoren sind allgemeine Formulierungen ohne konkreten Bezug zum Geschäftsmodell.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We leverage our bioinformatics expertise and machine learning to identify genetic mutations in the brain that we believe increase the risk of disease onset and progression."
Wir nutzen unsere Bioinformatik-Expertise und maschinelles Lernen, um genetische Mutationen im Gehirn zu identifizieren, von denen wir annehmen, dass sie das Risiko für Ausbruch und Fortschreiten einer Erkrankung erhöhen.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
„implement additional internal systems and infrastructure related to cybersecurity and artificial intelligence;"
zusätzliche interne Systeme und Infrastruktur im Zusammenhang mit Cybersicherheit und künstlicher Intelligenz einführen;
10-Q · 2026-08-06 · View SEC filing
„Although AI has the potential to help advance our business, there are risks involved in utilizing AI, and no assurance can be provided that the use of AI will enhance our business or assist our business in becoming more efficient or profitable."
Obwohl KI das Potenzial hat, unser Geschäft voranzubringen, ist ihr Einsatz mit Risiken verbunden, und es kann nicht zugesichert werden, dass der Einsatz von KI unser Geschäft verbessert oder es effizienter oder profitabler macht.
10-Q · 2026-08-06 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-08-06 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-26
Rated on October 6, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -46.0%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 233.7%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 7.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -953.7%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 54.1%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 220 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -206 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -65.2%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 9.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 54.5%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -26.4%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -26.4%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -466.3%
- ROCE > 15% -65.2%
- Expected return > 10% -82.6%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Rosenthal Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Other | 217,500 | 0.00 | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | CFO & Chief Business Officer | Other | 44,567 | 0.00 | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Wong-Sarad Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Other | 55,555 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Wong-Sarad Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Sell | 3,625 | 2.51 | 9,094 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Wong-Sarad Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Sell | 5,165 | 2.67 | 13,767 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Rosenthal Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 72,606 | 2.66 | 193,473 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | CFO & Chief Business Officer | Sell | 29,251 | 2.66 | 77,948 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Wong-Sarad Grace | Principal Accounting Officer | Sell | 656 | 2.75 | 1,804 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rosenthal Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Other | 350,000 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rosenthal Arnon | Chief Executive Officer | Other | 1,050,000 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Alector, Inc., ein Biotechnologieunternehmen in der klinischen Phase, entwickelt Therapien, um das Fortschreiten der Neurodegeneration aufzuhalten, in den USA.
- Employees
- 103
- Headquarters
- South San Francisco, CA
- Address
- 131 Oyster Point Boulevard, 94080 South San Francisco, United States
- Phone
- 415 231 5660
- Website
- alector.com
- IPO Date
- 02/07/2019
- ISIN
- US0144421072
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Arnon Rosenthal Ph.D. | Co-Founder, CEO & Director | 1956 |
| Neil Berkley M.B.A., M.S. | CFO & Chief Business Officer | 1974 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 10/16/2026 Alector, Inc. (ALEC): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/14/2026 Alector, Inc. (ALEC): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
- 10/05/2026 Alector, Inc. (ALEC): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/06/2026 Alector, Inc. (ALEC): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/08/2026 Alector, Inc. (ALEC): Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement SEC ↗
Data as of: November 2, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.