AEVEX Corp. (AVEX)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Green is out of reach for lack of repeatability; red is not warranted for lack of any substance risk. The business plainly works: 2025 revenue grew 10.4 percent to $432.9 million, the first quarter of 2026 delivered $216.7 million and $21.0 million of profit, equity is positive at $222.1 million, and the IPO replaced roughly $258.5 million of old borrowings with a $100.0 million term loan, with interest expense guided down to about $13.2 million for 2026. What is open is the decisive operating question: results hang on one large contract whose delivery cut funded backlog by $146.5 million to $356.6 million in a single quarter, 93.0 percent of which is meant to be consumed during 2026. Guidance of $600 million to $620 million, implying $128 million to $134 million per remaining quarter, confirms it. Add $97.6 million of operating cash outflow in 2025 and $10.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, plus a customer supplying 88 percent of revenue who can terminate at will. No annual report (10-K) yet shows any of this over a full year as a public company, so yellow it stays. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
AEVEX Corp. builds unmanned systems and autonomy software for the U.S. military and listed on the New York Stock Exchange on April 20, 2026. Six weeks later it reported its first quarter as a public company: revenue of $216.7 million against $53.3 million a year earlier, and a profit of $21.0 million after a loss of $27.3 million. Multiply that by four and you land near $870 million — the company itself guides to $600 million to $620 million for 2026. The quarterly report explains both numbers with the same name: the EUCOM AOR Deep Strike program. And it shows what that contract leaves behind in the order book: a decline of $146.5 million in three months. Not investment advice — just the question of what remains of a record quarter once the contract behind it has been delivered.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 28, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at AVEX since then.
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This stock currently matches 4 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 16.60 $ — 12% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIAEVEX verkauft KI als Produktbestandteil: Das gesamte Portfolio unbemannter Systeme beruht laut Börsenprospekt auf der hauseigenen, KI-basierten Sensorfusions-Software CompassX, die Navigation, Autonomie und Zielerfassung in GPS-gestörten Umgebungen liefert.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Our UxS portfolio is underpinned by our proprietary AI-based CompassX sensor-fusion engine, which delivers assured positioning, navigation, and timing (“APNT”) and advanced onboard autonomy in GPS-denied environments."
Unser Portfolio unbemannter Systeme stützt sich auf unsere hauseigene, KI-basierte Sensorfusions-Software CompassX, die gesicherte Positionsbestimmung, Navigation und Zeitgebung („APNT“) sowie fortgeschrittene Autonomie an Bord in Umgebungen ohne GPS-Empfang liefert.
„We anchor autonomy with our NAC and CompassX suite, fusing AI, deep neural networks, and multi-sensor inputs with multi-vehicle collaborative autonomy across our UxS portfolio."
Wir verankern Autonomie in unserem Navigations- und Autonomiezentrum und der CompassX-Suite, die KI, tiefe neuronale Netze und Signale mehrerer Sensoren mit kollaborativer Autonomie mehrerer Fluggeräte über unser gesamtes Portfolio unbemannter Systeme verbindet.
„We are particularly encouraged by the sustained customer adoption of our AI-enabled autonomy solutions powered by CompassX, along with our next-generation solutions—capabilities that have been validated in operational use and are increasingly central to customer modernization priorities."
Besonders ermutigt uns die anhaltende Kundenakzeptanz unserer KI-gestützten Autonomielösungen auf Basis von CompassX sowie unserer Lösungen der nächsten Generation — Fähigkeiten, die sich im Einsatz bewährt haben und für die Modernisierungsprioritäten unserer Kunden immer wichtiger werden.
Filings Reviewed: 424B4 2026-04-20 · 10-Q 2026-05-20 · 8-K 2026-05-20 · 424B4 2026-06-05
Rated on July 28, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 113.1% above the current price.
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 0.33 | 0.25 – 0.37 | 606 | – | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.50 | 0.38 – 0.55 | 683 | 50.5% | 6 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.06 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026: Q1 | 0.19 | – | 217 | 306.90 | 9.70 | -10 | -12 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 392 | 45 | 79 | 1.62 | 65 | 160 | 557 |
| 2025 | 433 | 4 | -1 | -0.02 | -98 | 246 | 806 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
AEVEX is the sole provider on the EUCOM AOR Deep Strike program (contract value above $645.7 million, more than 4,800 aircraft), has delivered over 6,200 systems, and says it is prime contractor on 84 percent of all its programs. Its in-house CompassX software delivers navigation and autonomy without a satellite signal — the capability that makes the difference in contested environments (prospectus filed April 20, 2026).
The turn is real: first-quarter 2026 revenue reached $216.7 million (prior-year quarter $53.3 million), gross margin went from 5.7 percent to 26.1 percent, and net income swung from a $27.3 million loss to a $21.0 million profit. Full-year 2025 also grew 10.4 percent to $432.9 million (Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026; prospectus filed April 20, 2026).
Funded backlog fell during the record quarter from $503.1 million to $356.6 million; 93.0 percent of that is meant to be consumed during 2026, leaving only 7.0 percent for 2027 and beyond. Guidance of $600 million to $620 million for 2026 implies an average of $128 million to $134 million per remaining quarter — the first quarter was the peak, not the starting point (as of May 20, 2026).
Operations consumed $97.6 million of cash in 2025 and another $10.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 despite the reported profit — driven by a combined $71.4 million increase in receivables and unbilled work. Against that stands a markedly relieved balance sheet: roughly $258.5 million of old borrowings repaid, a $100.0 million term loan in their place, and interest expense guided to about $13.2 million in 2026 after $32.3 million in 2025.
88 percent of first-quarter 2026 revenue came directly from the U.S. government, and 71 percent of all outstanding receivables were tied to a single customer as of March 31, 2026. The prospectus states that all government contracts are terminable at will and that part of the work is funded through short-term operational needs statements rather than programs of record.
56,470,333 Class A shares become 114,041,700 on full exchange; Madison Dearborn Partners controls roughly 70.0 percent of the voting power, making AEVEX a "controlled company" with relaxed governance requirements. Add a tax promise to the pre-IPO owners illustrated at $392.1 million, an equity plan covering 11,404,170 shares, and a lock-up that expires on October 13, 2026 (prospectus filed June 5, 2026).
AEVEX is a genuine, technically strong defense company with a very short public record: first trade April 17, 2026, one quarterly report, audited annual figures available only from a prospectus. The first quarter of 2026 was spectacular — $216.7 million of revenue after $53.3 million, and $21.0 million of profit after a $27.3 million loss — and the filings attribute it largely to a single program that, in the same quarter, pushed funded backlog from $503.1 million down to $356.6 million. Add $97.6 million of cash consumed by operations in 2025, a customer supplying 88 percent of revenue who may terminate at will, and an ownership structure in which half the company sits outside the traded share. Not investment advice.
- AEVEX reached our research list through our watchlist of newly listed U.S. stocks rather than a scanner: as of July 28, 2026 the stock appears in no list from our in-house stock scanner, because relative strength requires twelve months of price history and the nine-point balance-sheet check requires two audited annual reports filed as a public company. Those lists are recalculated daily.
- Data basis and its limits: there is no annual report (10-K) yet, because fiscal 2025 ended before the listing. The audited 2024 and 2025 figures come from the 424B4 prospectus filed April 20, 2026, and the quarterly figures from the Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026 — the only periodic filing so far. Balance-sheet figures as of March 31, 2026 refer to the operating company before the IPO.
- Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: we use 114,041,700 shares (full exchange of all LLC units) and the three anchor prices documented in SEC filings — $20.00 (April 20, 2026), $27.00 (June 5, 2026) and the $15.21 close (July 28, 2026). A market value counting only the 56,470,333 Class A shares leaves out roughly half the company and is deliberately not used here.
About the Company
AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance strategy mission. The company operates in two segments, Tactical Systems and Global Solutions. The Tactical Systems designs and manufactures battle-tested, autonomous, modular, and attritable unmanned systems, including UAS and unmanned surface vehicles with other mission critical products. The Global Solutions provides bespoke mission solutions, including AI-enabled airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), C-UAS, additive manufacturing, and specialized mission aircraft engineering, modification, and testing. The company was founded in 2020 and is based in Solana Beach, California.
| Employees | 650 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Solana Beach, CA |
| Address | 440 Stevens Avenue, 92075 Solana Beach, United States |
| Phone | 858 704 4125 |
| Website | aevex.com |
| IPO Date | 17. Apr 2026 |
| ISIN | US00835T1079 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Roger Wells IV | CEO & Director | 1973 |
| Jeremy Watrous P.M.P. | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Michael Jackson | Senior Vice President of Global Solutions | 1973 |
| Todd A. Booth | Chief Financial Officer | 1972 |
| Manan Patel | Chief Technology Officer | – |
| Jason Michael Gursky | Vice President of Investor Relations & Treasury | – |
| Christine M. Morrison | Chief Legal Officer | 1975 |
| Nelson Erickson | Senior Vice President of Strategy & Corporate Development | – |
| Matt Gunn | Director of Marketing | – |
| Rebecca Culjat LCSW | Chief People Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.