Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow here stands for an open operating question, not for a risk to the substance. The substance is documented: $304.4 million of cash including restricted cash and $594.2 million of equity as of June 30, 2026, an undrawn revolver with $115.0 million available, all covenants met, no going-concern warning, $238.6 million of cash from operations in 2025 and $117.9 million in the first half of 2026, and interest cover of more than five times in the second quarter of 2026. What is open is earning power itself: the first profitable year is barely a year old, preceded by losses of $401.4 million and $128.4 million and an accumulated deficit that still stands at $792.7 million. Eighty-five percent of the securities portfolio has no market price and is valued on assumptions that all moved in favour of fair value during the first half of 2026; the fee margin on network volume fell from 4.8 to 4.2 percent, and the company itself writes that its technology has not been extensively tested in a down-cycle. Whether the stock is cheap at a price-earnings ratio of roughly 14 on trailing twelve months and roughly 11 on its own outlook belongs to the price question and does not drive this assessment. Red would require cash from operations to turn, equity to be eaten up by write-downs, or the funding of the retained positions to stall; green would require several quarters with a stable loss assumption, a stable fee margin and a falling related-party share. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Pagaya is the preferred-number trap in its purest form: two correct profit figures stand side by side for the second quarter of 2026 — $45.3 million under U.S. accounting rules and $101.0 million "adjusted" — and the difference consists largely of write-downs on loans the company's own models selected. Behind it stands a fast-growing fee business with genuine cash generation ($238.6 million in 2025, $117.9 million in the first half of 2026) and, at the same time, a balance sheet in which $886.7 million is valued without a market price on the company's own assumptions, nearly 60 percent of quarterly revenue comes from self-sponsored vehicles, and the fee margin has slipped from 4.8 to 4.2 percent. Not investment advice.
Growth and operating leverage
Total revenue and other income rose from $812.1 million (2023) to $1,301.4 million (2025) and by 19 percent to $387.0 million in the second quarter of 2026. Operating income in that quarter jumped 87 percent to $105.8 million while technology, sales and administrative costs together fell from $78.5 million to $62.5 million. Network volume reached $3.5 billion.
Quality of earnings
Between operating income ($105.8 million) and net income ($45.3 million) in the second quarter of 2026 sit chiefly $42.3 million of losses on the company's own securitization paper. The company's preferred metric of $101.0 million adds precisely those write-downs back. Since 2023 this single line adds up to roughly $722.8 million.
Reliability of balance sheet values
$886.7 million of the $1,040.1 million of investments are Level 3 assets with no observable market price (June 30, 2026) — more than the entire $594.2 million of equity. Within six months the assumed loss rate fell from 17.0 to 16.2 percent and the discount rate from 15.0 to 14.6 percent, both supporting fair value. The 2025 annual report itself calls the technology untested in a down-cycle.
Customer structure and concentration
$231.4 million of the $387.0 million of quarterly revenue (59.8 percent) comes from vehicles Pagaya sponsors or advises; two ABS trusts alone accounted for roughly 29 percent of fee revenue in the second quarter of 2026. The related-party share of total revenue is nonetheless falling over time: 76.6 percent (2023), 65.8 percent (2024), 50.2 percent (2025) — although it climbed back to 55.4 percent in the first half of 2026.
Balance sheet and funding
Sound as of June 30, 2026: $304.4 million of cash including restricted cash, $594.2 million of equity, an undrawn revolver with $115.0 million available, all covenants met and $117.9 million of cash from operations in the half year. Against that stands an 8.875 percent coupon on the 2030 notes, whose $413.6 million fair value sits below the $471.9 million carrying amount, plus performance guarantees of up to $141.3 million.
Dilution and share structure
Alongside 83.4 million ordinary shares outstanding (July 29, 2026) sit 22,433,501 instruments from options, restricted share awards and warrants that are currently excluded from diluted earnings per share — roughly 27 percent. Class B shares carry ten votes each and therefore about 61 percent of the voting power on roughly 13.5 percent of the capital.
Worth Noting
Pagaya reached our research list through the SEC filing calendar: on July 30, 2026 the quarterly report (10-Q) for the period ended June 30, 2026 arrived together with a same-day current report (8-K) carrying the earnings release as Exhibit 99.1 and a shareholder letter as Exhibit 99.2. The company outlook appears solely in Exhibit 99.1, not in the quarterly report.
Data basis: annual figures as of December 31, 2025 from the annual report (10-K) for 2025, interim figures as of June 30, 2026 from the quarterly report (10-Q), outlook as of July 30, 2026 from Exhibit 99.1 to the current report (8-K). This analysis deliberately rests on mandatory filings alone: market capitalisation is not taken from a price database but calculated — 83.4 million ordinary shares (cover page of the quarterly report, July 29, 2026) times the price in two Form 4 insider reports filed August 4, 2026, which document sales on August 3, 2026 at $21.9783 and $22.00. The second anchor is the $16.19 price quoted in the quarterly report as of July 29, 2026. Analyst consensus, price targets, short interest and beta cannot be evidenced from any mandatory filing and therefore do not appear in this analysis.
On the share count: many data sheets show only the 72,137,266 Class A shares. Market capitalisation and valuation multiples must also include the 11,288,577 Class B shares — roughly 83.4 million ordinary shares together (as of July 29, 2026). Class B carries ten votes per share. Every price and per-share figure in this analysis is stated on the basis after the 1-for-12 reverse share split of March 2024; older price and per-share series are therefore not comparable.
On the reporting format: Pagaya is an Israeli company but has filed annual reports (10-K), quarterly reports (10-Q) and current reports (8-K) on U.S. domestic forms since April 2024 — voluntarily at first; for fiscal 2023 it also filed the foreign private issuer annual report (20-F). Foreign private issuer status lapsed on June 30, 2025, which made the U.S. forms mandatory. Emerging growth company status ended on December 31, 2025, since when Pagaya has been a large accelerated filer with an auditor attestation on internal control over financial reporting.
On the amendments: the 2025 annual report was supplemented twice — on April 30, 2026 with Part III (directors, executive compensation, auditor fees) and on June 1, 2026 with a more detailed geographic breakdown of long-lived assets in Note 19 plus a re-dated audit opinion. Neither amendment changed the reported financial position or results.
Stock Watch
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 10.60 $ to 43.80 $ · Last price: 20.60 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Software - Infrastructure
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pagaya Technologies Ltd. PGY | 1.7 | 18.1 | 4.5 | 43.4 | – | 25.6 | -51.0 |
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | 3,632.6 | 30.8 | 17.6 | 67.9 | 46.3 | 14.9 | -1.6 |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | 435.3 | 24.7 | 14.8 | 64.0 | 36.2 | 17.4 | -49.5 |
| Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR | 432.5 | 199.0 | 147.5 | 84.8 | 46.2 | 56.2 | 4.7 |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc PANW | 305.7 | 302.6 | 194.0 | 70.4 | -2.5 | 14.9 | 84.7 |
| Crowdstrike Holdings Inc CRWD | 248.2 | – | 490.1 | 75.2 | -2.2 | 21.7 | 120.6 |
| Fortinet Inc FTNT | 124.2 | 61.8 | 39.6 | 80.2 | 31.3 | 14.2 | 115.0 |
| Cloudflare Inc NET | 115.1 | – | 2,805.8 | 72.6 | -9.7 | 29.9 | 56.1 |
| Synopsys Inc SNPS | 73.0 | 77.0 | 22.3 | 82.9 | 10.4 | 15.1 | -10.4 |
| Median of companies shown | 248.2 | 61.8 | 39.6 | 72.6 | 20.8 | 17.4 | 4.7 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 36 | -4 | -6 | -0.35 | -8 | 32 | 59 |
| 2020 | 92 | 21 | 14 | 0.79 | 4 | 109 | 204 |
| 2021 | 446 | -6 | -91 | -5.60 | 50 | 308 | 590 |
| 2022 | 685 | -315 | -302 | -5.19 | -40 | 554 | 1,045 |
| 2023 | 773 | -24 | -128 | -2.14 | 10 | 560 | 1,208 |
| 2024 | 1,005 | 67 | -401 | -5.66 | 67 | 326 | 1,291 |
| 2025 | 1,261 | 224 | 81 | 0.98 | 239 | 480 | 1,546 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -3.20 | – | 276 | 31.00 | -86.30 | 32 | 23 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.10 | – | 283 | 19.30 | 2.80 | 34 | 31 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.21 | – | 318 | 31.00 | 5.20 | 57 | 54 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.25 | – | 340 | 36.30 | 6.60 | 67 | 64 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.38 | – | 321 | 16.50 | 10.70 | 80 | 77 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.26 | 149.30 | 318 | 12.50 | 7.80 | 43 | 40 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.49 | 133.30 | 387 | 21.80 | 11.70 | 75 | 71 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 3 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 3.75 | 3.39 – 3.97 | 1,469 | 13.2% | 10 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.15 | 3.74 – 4.82 | 1,702 | 10.7% | 10 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -7.5% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $251.8M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.71B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $115.6M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 35.7% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 134.7% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Die größte Erlösposition heißt in allen sechs ausgewerteten Berichten wörtlich „Network AI fees“ und brachte im Geschäftsjahr 2025 rund 1.131,3 Mio. US-Dollar — Pagayas KI-gestützte Kreditmodelle sind damit belegt die Umsatzquelle selbst und nicht bloß ein internes Werkzeug.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Revenue from fees is comprised of Network AI fees and Contract fees. Network AI fees can be further broken down into two fee streams: AI integration fees and capital markets execution fees."
Die Gebührenerlöse bestehen aus Network-AI-Gebühren und Vertragsgebühren. Die Network-AI-Gebühren lassen sich in zwei Gebührenströme aufteilen: Gebühren für die KI-Integration und Gebühren für die Kapitalmarktausführung.
10-Q · 2026-07-30 · View SEC filing
„Network AI fees, comprised of AI integration fees and capital markets execution fees, totaled $1,131.3 million, $916.1 million and $696.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively."
Die Network-AI-Gebühren, bestehend aus Gebühren für die KI-Integration und Gebühren für die Kapitalmarktausführung, beliefen sich für die Geschäftsjahre 2025, 2024 und 2023 auf 1.131,3 Mio., 916,1 Mio. bzw. 696,0 Mio. US-Dollar.
10-K · 2026-03-02 · View SEC filing
„We are a product-focused technology company that deploys sophisticated data science and proprietary, AI-powered technology to enable better outcomes for financial institutions, their existing and potential customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors."
Wir sind ein produktorientiertes Technologieunternehmen, das anspruchsvolle Datenwissenschaft und eigene, KI-gestützte Technik einsetzt, um bessere Ergebnisse für Finanzinstitute, deren bestehende und mögliche Kunden sowie institutionelle oder professionelle Investoren zu erreichen.
10-K · 2026-03-02 · View SEC filing
„We earn AI integration fees for the creation and delivery of the assets that comprise our Network Volume."
Wir verdienen Gebühren für die KI-Integration mit der Erzeugung und Lieferung der Vermögenswerte, die unser Netzwerkvolumen ausmachen.
10-K · 2026-03-02 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-30 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-10 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-K 2026-03-02 · 10-K 2025-03-12
Rated on August 4, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 22.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 13.7%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 12.5%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 43.4%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 40.6%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 1.5%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 336 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 763 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 15.8%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 9.1%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
7/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 80.8%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 16.1%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 105.7%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -1.5x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 3
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 18.1%
- ROCE > 15% 15.8%
- Expected return > 10% 132.9%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rosen Tami | Director | Sell | 7,121 | 20.21 | 143,915 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rosen Tami | Director | Other | 15,625 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Das Sanjiv | President | Sell | 13,301 | 20.21 | 268,813 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Das Sanjiv | President | Other | 23,750 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Dobres Jonathan | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 582 | 20.21 | 11,762 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Dobres Jonathan | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 1,125 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Rosen Tami | Director | Sell | 1,265 | 23.07 | 29,184 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Vieira Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Sell | 3,075 | 22.71 | 69,833 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Vieira Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Other | 5,208 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Gardner Jason M. | Director | Other | 5,946 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Pagaya Technologies Ltd., ein produktorientiertes Technologieunternehmen, setzt Data Science und proprietäre KI-gestützte Technologie für Finanzdienstleistungen, deren Kunden sowie institutionelle oder versierte Investoren in den USA, Israel und auf den Cayman Islands ein.
- Employees
- 493
- Headquarters
- New York, NY
- Address
- 335 Madison Ave, 10017 New York, United States
- Phone
- 646 710 7714
- Website
- pagaya.com
- IPO Date
- 06/23/2022
- ISIN
- IL0011858912
- Stock Split
- 1:12 on 03/08/2024
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Gal Krubiner | CEO, Co-Founder & Director | 1989 |
| Sanjiv Das | Co-Founder & President | 1962 |
| Avital Pardo | Co-Founder, Deputy CEO & Director | 1986 |
| Yahav Yulzari | Co-Founder, Deputy CEO & Director | 1986 |
| Tami Rosen | Chair of Strategic Advisory Board, Chief Development Officer & Director | 1971 |
| Evangelos Perros | Strategic Executive Advisor | 1976 |
| Jonathan Israel Dobres J.D. | Chief Financial Officer | 1978 |
| Balasubramaniam Panchanadeswaran | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Edward John Mallon | Chief Investment Officer | – |
| Cory Vieira | Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting Officer | 1979 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.