Moodys Corporation (MCO)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
The quality of this company is documented: the business model has held for decades, the operating margin runs at 43.4 percent, profit is backed by cash ($2.901 billion of operating cash flow against $2.459 billion of reported net income in fiscal 2025), interest coverage stands at 18.3 and the Altman Z at 7.17. The thin book equity of $3.025 billion as of June 30, 2026 is the result of buybacks, not of losses — the balance sheet is lean by choice, not impaired. What remains open is a cycle question, not a substance question: ratings hang on issuance volume, and 2022 showed how fast that can turn. The stock is expensive on top of that — a price argument, which does not change the color of this light. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Moody's assigns the grades that half the bond market runs on. In fiscal 2025 that produced $7.718 billion in revenue and $2.459 billion in profit; in the second quarter of 2026 revenue climbed 15 percent, driven by bonds that finance data centers for artificial intelligence. At the same time shareholders' equity shrank by a quarter in six months, because $2.165 billion went into the company's own shares. We read the annual report and the quarterly report filed on July 23, 2026 — and found a company that writes its own dependence on issuance volume straight into its risk factors. No recommendation — just the question of what a grade is worth when the graded party pays for it.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MCO since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 478.40 $ — 52% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIMoody’s verkauft eigene Produkte mit generativer und agentischer KI als Teil der Analytics-Sparte und führt sie im Geschäftsbericht 2025 ausdrücklich in der Wachstumsstrategie; das Unternehmen bezeichnet sich dort selbst als frühen Anwender.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„New products, services, proprietary data and technology capabilities, including Gen AI and Agentic AI offerings, to help customers attain competitive advantage and improve internal productivity"
Neue Produkte, Dienstleistungen, eigene Daten und Technologiefähigkeiten, einschließlich Angeboten mit generativer und agentischer KI, die Kunden helfen sollen, Wettbewerbsvorteile zu erzielen und die interne Produktivität zu steigern
„As an early adopter of Gen AI and agentic AI, which Moody's believes will help our customers make better decisions by unlocking deeper, more integrated perspectives on risk, we believe Moody's has positioned itself to benefit from the capabilities of this technology and harness the proprietary insights resulting from being embedded in customer workflows."
Als früher Anwender generativer und agentischer KI — von der Moody’s annimmt, dass sie Kunden zu besseren Entscheidungen verhilft, indem sie tiefere, stärker integrierte Sichtweisen auf Risiken erschließt — sieht sich Moody’s so aufgestellt, dass es von den Fähigkeiten dieser Technologie profitiert und die eigenen Erkenntnisse aus der Einbettung in die Arbeitsabläufe der Kunden nutzt.
„A provider of AI-powered property risk intelligence; the Company acquired CAPE Analytics in January 2025"
Ein Anbieter KI-gestützter Risikoinformationen zu Immobilien; das Unternehmen erwarb CAPE Analytics im Januar 2025
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-23 · 8-K 2026-07-22 · 10-Q 2026-04-23 · 10-K 2026-02-18 · 10-Q 2025-10-23 · 10-K 2024-02-14
Rated on July 26, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Red flags Analytics targets loweredWe read ten earnings call transcripts from Moody's covering 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The ratings franchise delivers reliably: earnings per share, margins and issuance ended each year at or above the original guidance — even in 2025, when management cut guidance mid-year in April and still finished above the initial range. The other half of the group is weaker: at Moody's Analytics the annual recurring-revenue outlook was cut mid-year in two consecutive years, and the medium-term target was reset from low-to-mid teens to high single digit. Contrary to what is often claimed this did not happen quietly — the February 2025 call was billed in advance as an update to the medium-term targets — but the step was never labelled a cut. One dated commitment was clearly missed: the pickup in Research and Insights promised for year-end 2024. It also belongs in the picture that recurring revenue grew nearly 9% again in 2026-Q2.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2 · As of August 2, 2026
Medium-term analytics target reset
On the 2024-Q2 call an analyst asked directly whether the medium-term targets set at the investor day still held in a tougher environment. The CEO answered: "There isn't a change to our medium-term outlook" — the topic would be revisited in February. That is exactly what happened: the February call (2024-Q4) was flagged in the opening remarks as an update to the medium-term guidance, the CFO gave it a dedicated section of her prepared remarks and named the new analytics figures there — 9% to 10% recurring-revenue growth and a mid to high 30s margin by 2027. Four analysts followed up on the same call, one quoting the new analytics target verbatim. So the charge of a stealth cut does not hold. What remains: the old low-to-mid teens target was never placed next to the new one, the step was never labelled a reduction, and in the same passage management raised the group EPS target. The CFO only called it a reset on the 2025-Q3 call when asked — explicitly pointing back to the February call.
Promised Research and Insights pickup never came
On the 2024-Q1 call management said Research and Insights recurring revenue would tick up to the high single digit range by year-end 2024, driven by Research Assistant and the unrated coverage expansion. On the 2024-Q2 call the figure was unchanged at 6% and the commitment was explicitly repeated. On the 2024-Q3 call it was 6% again, and the CEO walked it back to "the lower end of high single-digit growth". At the 2024-Q4 close it stood at 6% — the commitment was not met. Only in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q4 did the line reach 8%, roughly a year later than announced; in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 it slipped back to 7% and 6%. This is the one item across ten calls that survives review as a clearly dated and clearly missed commitment.
Private credit revenue still not broken out
On the 2024-Q3 call the CEO said of private credit revenue that the company still had "some work to do" to break out where that revenue comes from: "we, in some ways, kind of owe that to you all." That was a statement of intent without a date, not a dated commitment — and it was partly honoured. Since the 2025-Q1 call a private credit block has been a fixture of the prepared remarks: growth rates (75% in 2025-Q2, over 60% in 2025-Q3, 60% for full year 2025, more than 80% in 2026-Q1), mandate counts (nearly 400 in 2024, 200 first-time mandates in 2025-Q3) and share figures (20% of structured finance revenue growth in 2025-Q1, nearly 25% of first-time mandates in 2025-Q2, 30% of FIG first-time mandates in 2024). What is still missing through 2026-Q2 is an absolute revenue figure: asked directly what share of ratings revenue came from private credit, management replied on the 2024-Q4 call that they do not break it out that way. The MSCI partnership announced on the 2025-Q1 call also came without a revenue model: "we haven't disclosed kind of the revenue model or opportunity."
AI revenue is not disclosed separately
Moody's gives no standalone revenue figure for AI products on any of the ten calls — but it never promised one either. The much-quoted line that the contribution is "not material yet" appears on exactly two calls: 2024-Q2 on Research Assistant and 2025-Q2 on standalone GenAI solutions. It does not appear on the 2024-Q3, 2024-Q4, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1 or 2026-Q2 calls; on the two 2026 calls AI revenue is not even raised as a question. Instead of a revenue figure management offers proxy metrics, and they have grown over time: on the 2025-Q2 call roughly 200 million dollars of recurring revenue from the AI-buyer cohort and about 40% of products carrying some AI enablement; on the 2025-Q4 call a 97% retention rate in that cohort and growth at twice the rate of the rest of the customer base. When an analyst pushed back on the 2025-Q4 call that none of this was showing up in recurring revenue, the reply stayed with those metrics. Anyone wanting to verify the AI contribution from outside still cannot.
One-off effects on five calls, then recovery
Recurring revenue growth at Moody's Analytics fell from 10% (2024-Q1 and 2024-Q2) to 9% (2024-Q3 through 2025-Q1) and to 8% (2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1). On five of those calls management names separate one-off effects: US federal contracts renewing at lower value and the shift of sustainability data to MSCI (2024-Q3), government cancellations (2025-Q1), a self-chosen termination of a redistribution partnership plus an account loss after a merger (2025-Q2), tough prior-year comparisons (2025-Q3) and again US agency cuts (2025-Q4). That is five calls, not eight consecutive quarters — and the run ends: in 2026-Q2 recurring revenue grew nearly 9% again to about 3.7 billion dollars, with full-year guidance held at high single digit. What stands is that the full-year recurring-revenue outlook was cut mid-year in both 2024 (on the 2024-Q2 call, from low double digit to high single to low double digit) and 2025 (on the 2025-Q1 call, to high single digit) — and hit on both occasions afterwards.
Ratings delivers, but the forecast swings hard
On the ratings side the record is good. In 2024 the issuance outlook started at mid to high single digit growth, was raised to 20% to 25% on the 2024-Q2 call and to the mid-30s on the 2024-Q3 call, and finished above all of it at 42%. In 2025 the reverse happened: on the 2025-Q1 call management cut EPS from 14.00-14.50 to 13.25-14.00 dollars, lowered its M&A assumption from plus 50% to plus 15% and for the first time expected issuance to decline; the year closed at 14.94 dollars, above the original range. Management acknowledged this swing itself on the 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 calls ("essentially right in line with our original full year guidance"). On the 2026-Q1 call it deliberately held guidance through the April turbulence — and was vindicated in 2026-Q2 with 15% revenue growth. In 2026-Q2 the group raised its issuance outlook but explicitly left the revenue outlook unchanged because of a less favourable mix; that is cleanly reasoned and speaks for communication discipline on this side of the house.
Management promises
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2024-Q1 broken
Research and Insights recurring revenue growth to reach the high single digit range by year-end 2024.
It stayed at 6% in 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3, and closed 2024-Q4 at 6% as well. The 8% only arrived in 2025-Q3, roughly a year late.
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2024-Q1 broken
Moody's Analytics recurring revenue to grow in the low double digit range in 2024.
Already widened on the 2024-Q2 call to high single to low double digit with a midpoint at the top of the high single digit range. The 2024-Q4 call reported 9.4%.
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2024-Q3 open
The group intends to give a better sense of where private credit revenue arises across ratings and analytics.
Stated without a date and partly delivered: since the 2025-Q1 call a fixed private credit section appears in the prepared remarks with growth rates, mandate counts and share figures. An absolute revenue figure is still missing through 2026-Q2.
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2024-Q4 open
Efficiency programme with 200 to 250 million dollars of restructuring charges over two years and 250 to 300 million dollars of annualised savings on completion.
By the 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3 calls over 100 million dollars of annualised savings had been executed. On the 2026-Q2 call the envelope was expanded by 100 million, the programme extended through year-end 2027 and the savings target raised to 300 to 350 million — bigger and longer than originally announced.
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2024-Q4 open
Moody's Analytics adjusted operating margin to reach the mid to high 30s by 2027.
On track: 30.7% in 2024, 33.1% in 2025, 33.6% in 2026-Q2 and a 34% to 35% guide for full year 2026. This commitment has been reaffirmed on every call since 2025-Q1 and has so far run slightly ahead of plan.
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2024-Q4 kept
Adjusted diluted EPS of 14.00 to 14.50 dollars for 2025.
Cut to 13.25-14.00 dollars on the 2025-Q1 call, raised to 14.50-14.75 on the 2025-Q3 call, and delivered at 14.94 dollars — above the original range.
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2024-Q3 kept
The targets set for the RMS acquisition — 150 million dollars of additional run-rate revenue by 2025 — to be achieved.
Confirmed on the 2025-Q4 call: target met and slightly exceeded, with RMS moved from flattish growth in 2021 to a high single digit annual rate.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 16.8% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 23
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 16.94 | 16.73 – 17.26 | 8,287 | 13.4% | 24 |
| 12/31/2027 | 18.87 | 17.78 – 20.00 | 8,888 | 11.4% | 24 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 4.26 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 2.16 | 16.70 | 1,672 | 13.00 | 23.60 | 674 | 600 |
| 2025: Q1 | 3.46 | 9.90 | 1,924 | 7.70 | 32.50 | 757 | 672 |
| 2025: Q2 | 3.20 | 6.20 | 1,898 | 4.50 | 30.50 | 543 | 468 |
| 2025: Q3 | 3.58 | 22.50 | 2,007 | 10.70 | 32.20 | 743 | 903 |
| 2025: Q4 | 3.41 | 57.90 | 1,889 | 13.00 | 32.30 | 858 | 777 |
| 2026: Q1 | 3.73 | 7.80 | 2,079 | 8.10 | 31.80 | 939 | 844 |
| 2026: Q2 | 5.03 | 57.20 | 2,185 | 15.10 | 40.20 | 779 | 688 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,604 | 1,515 | 267 | 1.36 | 1,226 | -1,225 | 5,327 |
| 2017 | 4,204 | 1,843 | 1,001 | 5.15 | 755 | -328 | 8,605 |
| 2018 | 4,443 | 1,925 | 1,310 | 6.74 | 1,461 | 459 | 9,526 |
| 2019 | 4,829 | 2,075 | 1,422 | 7.42 | 1,675 | 831 | 10,265 |
| 2020 | 5,371 | 2,447 | 1,778 | 9.39 | 2,146 | 1,763 | 12,409 |
| 2021 | 6,218 | 2,844 | 2,214 | 11.78 | 2,005 | 2,916 | 14,680 |
| 2022 | 5,468 | 1,997 | 1,374 | 7.44 | 1,474 | 2,519 | 14,349 |
| 2023 | 5,916 | 2,221 | 1,607 | 8.73 | 2,151 | 3,476 | 14,622 |
| 2024 | 7,088 | 2,971 | 2,058 | 11.26 | 2,838 | 3,565 | 15,505 |
| 2025 | 7,718 | 3,455 | 2,459 | 13.67 | 2,901 | 4,054 | 15,830 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Two rating agencies share most of the global market, and Moody's is one of them. That shows up in numbers few industries ever see: a 43.4 percent operating margin in fiscal 2025 ($3.351 billion on $7.718 billion of revenue), and a 63.6 percent adjusted segment margin in ratings alone. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue rose 15 percent to $2.185 billion and the operating margin went from 43.1 to 47.9 percent.
The 2025 annual report itself states that a majority of rating-based revenue is transaction-based. The year 2022 showed what that means: revenue fell from $6.218 billion to $5.468 billion (down 12.1 percent), operating income from $2.844 billion to $1.883 billion (down 33.8 percent) and net income from $2.214 billion to $1.374 billion. The current surge in the second quarter of 2026 comes in visible part from bonds financing AI data centers — demand nobody can guarantee for a decade.
As of June 30, 2026, $3.025 billion of equity stands against $14.675 billion of total assets, $6.946 billion of debt and $6.318 billion of goodwill. That is policy, not accident: $2.165 billion went into treasury shares in six months, three times the year-earlier figure, and cash fell from $2.384 billion to $1.467 billion. Interest coverage of 18.3 and an Altman Z of 7.17 (data as of 2026-07-26) show this is not a solvency question — but the cushion for a bad year is thinner than it used to be.
Of the $878 million in net income for the second quarter of 2026, $179 million came from the sale of MA Regulatory Solutions. Reported diluted earnings per share rose 57 percent, the adjusted figure 31 percent — both are strong, but only the second one describes the operating business. Up to $119 million of contingent consideration from the same sale is still outstanding for the second half of 2026, per the quarterly report.
Moody's Analytics is meant to be the calm counterweight to the issuance cycle, but it grows more slowly than ratings: external revenue of $925 million in the second quarter of 2026 was up 4 percent, while ratings gained 25 percent. On an organic constant currency basis, recurring revenue grew 9 percent, and annualized recurring revenue stood at $3.498 billion as of December 31, 2025 (up 8 percent). The gap is explained by divested units — the segment is being reshaped right now.
Roughly $81.7 billion of market capitalization (173.2 million shares, closing price of $471.50 on July 24, 2026) equals about 30 times trailing earnings per share and about 10 times revenue — a price that assumes quality and forgives nothing. Twenty-three analyst estimates average a target price of roughly $556 (12 strong buy, 4 buy, 7 hold, no sell; data as of 2026-07-26). A book-value comparison does not help here: it would only measure how many shares have already been repurchased.
Moody's is an exceptionally profitable company in a market shared by two houses: $7.718 billion of revenue and a 43.4 percent operating margin in fiscal 2025, $2.901 billion of operating cash flow, and a 15 percent revenue gain in the second quarter of 2026. That very strength carries a price the ticker does not show: earnings hang on issuance volume — the annual report says so itself — the current surge comes in part from bonds financing AI data centers, and book equity shrank by a quarter in six months as $2.165 billion went into the company's own shares. Buying here means buying a very good business at a price that assumes a very good business. Not investment advice.
- Hook: in-house stock scanner "Turnaround-Kandidaten", rank 22 of 62 U.S. hits, turnaround check 6 of 8, as of July 25, 2026. The lists are recalculated daily; ranking and score are a snapshot.
- Disclosed data finding: the mandatory pillar "at least 50 percent below the all-time high" carries a distance of 84.4 percent in our data set. The price history of the same stock shows a highest traded price of $546.88 on January 15, 2026 against $471.50 on July 24, 2026 — roughly 14 percent below. The entry in the list therefore rests on a value the price history does not confirm.
- Data as of: annual report 10-K for 2025 filed 2026-02-18, annual report 10-K for 2023 filed 2024-02-14 (supplies 2021 and 2022), quarterly report 10-Q as of 2026-06-30 filed 2026-07-23, Form 8-K of 2026-07-22; metrics and price history July 24 to 26, 2026.
- Possible confusion: the registrant behind CIK 0001059556 was named "Dun & Bradstreet Corp /DE/" until February 2000. Moody's Corporation is the renamed shell left after the data business was spun off; the former names still appear in SEC company records.
- Do not confuse: the credit ratings assigned by Moody's Investors Service are opinions about borrowers, not statements about Moody's stock. And the traffic light in this analysis judges the company, not the entry point.
About the Company
Moody's Corporation ist mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften ein integriertes Risikobewertungsunternehmen in den USA, dem übrigen Amerika, Europa, dem Nahen Osten, Afrika und dem asiatisch-pazifischen Raum. Es ist in zwei Segmenten tätig: Moody's Analytics (MA) und Moody's Investors Services (MIS).
| Employees | 16,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | New York, NY |
| Address | 7 World Trade Ctr at 250 Greenwich St, 10007 New York, United States |
| Phone | 212 553 0300 |
| Website | moodys.com |
| IPO Date | 3. Oct 2000 |
| ISIN | US6153691059 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 05/19/2005 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Scott Fauber | President, CEO & Director | 1970 |
| Noemie Clemence Heuland CPA | Senior VP & CFO | 1978 |
| Richard Steele | Senior VP & General Counsel | 1970 |
| Michael L. West | President of Moody's Investors Service Inc. & CEO of Moody's Ratings | 1969 |
| Jason Phillips | Chief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller | 1977 |
| Tameka Brown Alsop P.M.P. | Senior VP & Chief Administrative Officer | – |
| Shivani Kak | Head of Investor Relations | – |
| Andrew Weinberg | Chief Compliance Officer | – |
| Michael Adler | Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications | – |
| Maral Kazanjian | Senior VP & Chief People Officer | 1974 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.