Kodiak AI, Inc.
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
Substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern: that is what the quarterly report for June 30, 2026 says, and it is why the light is red. The company says its $151.1 million of cash lasts into the second quarter of 2027, free cash outflow runs at $35 million to $38 million a quarter (Q1 2026: $35.0 million, Q2 2026: $38.1 million), and common stockholders’ equity is negative at minus $188.9 million. The technology is real and growing — which makes Kodiak more than an empty shell, but does not prove a viable business. If you wait, check the next quarterly report: how much cash is left, how many shares were added, and how fast is subscription revenue growing? The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Kodiak AI is the narrative trap in pure form: the story of driverless trucks is true — 35 trucks run with no one aboard for paying customers. But second-quarter 2026 revenue was $3.5 million, the operating loss $43.7 million, the quarterly profit is an accounting entry, and the company itself doubts it can continue as a going concern. Cash lasts into the second quarter of 2027, by its own estimate, and new stock is flagged. Buying is a bet that the technology turns into revenue faster than the cash runs out. Not investment advice.
Technology & market position
Driverless trucks in paid customer service: 35 customer-owned trucks and more than 40,000 paid driverless operating hours at 06/30/2026, up from about 10,700 at the end of 2025. A seventh-generation driving system was introduced in Q2 2026.
Revenue & customers
2025 revenue was only $3.8 million (2024: $14.9 million) because Army work fell from $13.3 million to $1.0 million. Q2 2026 revenue was $3.5 million, 56 percent of it from a single customer.
Earnings power
Operating loss of $112.6 million in 2025 and $43.7 million in Q2 2026. The $12.5 million Q2 2026 net income stems from a $58.3 million fair-value gain on warrants, not from the business.
Liquidity & going concern
Going-concern warning in the 10-Q for 06/30/2026 and in the auditors’ report for 2025. $151.1 million of cash lasts into Q2 2027, per the company, at roughly $35 million to $38 million of free cash outflow per quarter.
Capital structure & dilution
New stock flagged for the “near term”; 269.9 million shares reserved for future issuance (200.6 million outstanding). Preferred stock with a $183.6 million redemption value (06/30/2026), conversion price cut from $12 to $6 in May 2026.
Worth Noting
Kodiak AI made our research list through our in-house Reddit hype scanner (3 mentions in 24 hours, rank 126, ApeWisdom, as of October 20, 2026).
Kodiak AI was called Ares Acquisition Corp II until the merger on 09/24/2025 (same CIK 0001853138). The Form 25 filed that day concerned the old SPAC securities on the NYSE, not a delisting of Kodiak. Figures before the merger are those of the former Kodiak Robotics, Inc.
Market value calculated by us: 200,618,170 shares (10-Q cover, 07/31/2026) × $1.20 close (10/19/2026). Price cross-check against the 424B3 prospectus supplement of 08/07/2026 ($4.36 on 08/06/2026); the gap is explained solely by the share price decline since then.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 20, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at KDK since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 0.951 $ to 10.90 $ · Last price: 1.10 $ (As of: November 13, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 11/14/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Software - Infrastructure
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodiak AI, Inc. KDK | 0.2 | – | 227.1 | 100.0 | -1,248.3 | -74.6 | -83.0 |
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | 3,823.1 | 32.4 | 17.6 | 67.7 | 46.3 | 14.9 | 5.0 |
| Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR | 412.4 | 181.2 | 112.1 | 84.7 | 46.2 | 56.2 | -2.4 |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | 362.5 | 20.9 | 12.9 | 64.0 | 36.2 | 17.4 | -41.6 |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc PANW | 262.6 | 254.7 | 184.2 | 70.4 | -2.5 | 14.9 | 57.4 |
| Crowdstrike Holdings Inc CRWD | 228.9 | – | 514.6 | 75.2 | -2.2 | 21.7 | 71.1 |
| Cloudflare Inc NET | 105.4 | – | 3,416.2 | 71.9 | -9.7 | 29.9 | 43.2 |
| Fortinet Inc FTNT | 91.6 | 44.7 | 28.1 | 79.8 | 31.3 | 14.2 | 57.0 |
| Synopsys Inc SNPS | 87.2 | 91.2 | 25.9 | 82.9 | 10.4 | 15.1 | 15.6 |
| Median of companies shown | 228.9 | 68.0 | 112.1 | 75.2 | 10.4 | 15.1 | 15.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | -54 | -57 | -0.31 | -44 | -187 | 46 |
| 2024 | 15 | -62 | -69 | -0.38 | -51 | -251 | 36 |
| 2025 | 4 | -113 | -586 | -6.42 | -94 | -60 | 159 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.25 | – | 14 | – | -237.50 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025: Q1 | -2.16 | – | 2 | 248.60 | -8,714.10 | -17 | -19 |
| 2025: Q2 | -1.89 | – | 1 | 24.20 | -22,609.50 | -20 | -23 |
| 2025: Q3 | -3.89 | -3,591.90 | 1 | -89.10 | -35,056.50 | -68 | -80 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.22 | 13.10 | 1 | -92.00 | -6,997.10 | -24 | -34 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.21 | 90.30 | 2 | 24.40 | 1,447.50 | -30 | -35 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.80 | 57.70 | 4 | 595.60 | 356.60 | -34 | -38 |
| 2026: Q3 | 0.09 | 102.30 | 3 | 275.00 | 913.30 | -35 | -38 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 3 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.56 | -0.68 – -0.45 | 11 | 56.4% | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.79 | -0.95 – -0.65 | 30 | -40.0% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 20.10.2026 gegen die Geschäftsberichte (10-K) für 2025 (eingereicht 11.03.2026) und 2024 (12.03.2025, noch als SPAC Ares Acquisition Corp II) sowie die Quartalsberichte (10-Q) zum 30.06.2026, 31.03.2026, 30.09.2025 und 30.06.2025: Kodiak AI verkauft mit dem „Kodiak Driver“ ein KI-gesteuertes Fahrsystem für Lkw, das laut Geschäftsbericht auf mehreren parallelen neuronalen Netzen läuft. Seit Dezember 2024 lizenziert das Unternehmen dieses System an Kunden, die eigene fahrerlose Lkw betreiben (Driver-as-a-Service), und berechnet dafür eine Gebühr je Fahrzeug oder je Meile — der wachsende Teil des Umsatzes (Q2 2026: 3,5 Mio. US-Dollar, davon 1,7 Mio. mehr aus diesem Geschäft als im Vorjahresquartal). Damit ist KI das verkaufte Produkt selbst; nach der Vorrang-Regel „verkauft“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„To that end, we developed the Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver that combines advanced AI-powered software with modular and vehicle-agnostic hardware designed to help address our customers’ needs."
Zu diesem Zweck haben wir den Kodiak Driver entwickelt, einen virtuellen Fahrer, der fortschrittliche KI-gestützte Software mit modularer, fahrzeugunabhängiger Hardware verbindet, um die Bedürfnisse unserer Kunden zu erfüllen.
10-K · 2026-03-11 · View SEC filing
„The Kodiak Driver is a unified physical AI system powered by multiple parallel neural nets that continuously learns and adapts across domains for efficient, scalable autonomy."
Der Kodiak Driver ist ein einheitliches physisches KI-System, angetrieben von mehreren parallelen neuronalen Netzen, das fortlaufend lernt und sich über Einsatzbereiche hinweg anpasst — für effizientes, skalierbares autonomes Fahren.
10-K · 2026-03-11 · View SEC filing
„Under our DaaS model, our customers are provided with access to the Kodiak Driver on customer-owned and -operated vehicles. Under this model, we generate revenue through either a per-vehicle or per-mile license fee."
In unserem DaaS-Modell erhalten unsere Kunden Zugang zum Kodiak Driver auf Fahrzeugen, die sie selbst besitzen und betreiben. In diesem Modell erzielen wir Umsatz entweder über eine Lizenzgebühr je Fahrzeug oder je Meile.
10-Q · 2026-08-07 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-08-07 · 10-Q 2026-05-08 · 10-Q 2025-11-13 · 10-Q 2025-08-12 · 10-K 2026-03-11 · 10-K 2025-03-12
Rated on October 20, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -36.9%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year no data
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -3,141.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion -552.4%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 84 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 523 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -84.8%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 38.0%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 180.5%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 180.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight –
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% –
- ROCE > 15% -84.8%
- Expected return > 10% 32.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Boyd Lorie Ann | Chief People Officer | Other | 747,863 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Die Kodiak AI, Inc. beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklung von Technologien für autonome Fahrzeuge und damit verbundenen Dienstleistungen. Sie bietet Kodiak Driver an, einen virtuellen Fahrer, der fortschrittliche KI-gestützte Software mit modularer und fahrzeugunabhängiger Hardware kombiniert, um die Anliegen ihrer Kunden zu unterstützen. Das Unternehmen bietet zudem Überwachungs- und Integrationswerkzeuge an, darunter Kodiak OnTime, eine firmeneigene Suite von Support-Diensten und Tools, die eine reibungslose Integration in die Abläufe der Kunden ermöglichen soll. Darüber hinaus liefert es Fracht mit seinen autonomen Lkw aus und bietet seinen Kunden Driver-as-a-Service an. Die Kodiak AI, Inc. unterhält eine strategische Zusammenarbeit mit General Dynamics Land Systems zur Entwicklung autonomer Bodenfahrzeuge (AGVs) für Verteidigungsanwendungen. Das Unternehmen bedient die Branchen Fernverkehr, industrieller Lkw-Verkehr und Verteidigung. Die Kodiak AI, Inc. wurde 2018 gegründet und hat ihren Hauptsitz in Mountain View, Kalifornien.
- Employees
- 341
- Headquarters
- Mountain View, CA
- Address
- 1049 Terra Bella Avenue, 94043-7373 Mountain View, United States
- Phone
- 650 209 8005
- Website
- kodiak.ai
- IPO Date
- 09/25/2025
- ISIN
- US5000811043
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Don Burnette | Founder, CEO & Director | 1987 |
| Surajit Datta | Chief Financial Officer | 1975 |
| Michael Wiesinger | Chief Operating Officer | 1988 |
| Andreas Wendel | Chief Technology Officer | 1985 |
| Jordan Coleman | Chief Legal & Policy Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1983 |
| Tyler Rosengren | Vice President of Marketing | – |
| Brett Fabbri | Head of Law Enforcement Policy & Roadway Safety | – |
| Gerhard Eschelbeck Ph.D. | Chief Information Security Officer | 1965 |
| Lauren Harper | Chief of Staff | – |
| Chet Gryczan | Managing Director of Defense | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 11/05/2026 Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: November 13, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.