Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today bets that the new CEO works through the closures cleanly, that the ERP disruptions stay history and that the adjusted margin recovers before the February 2028 refinancing — and gets a growing discounter at 5.4 times adjusted EBITDA for it. Whoever waits may miss the bottom, but will see in the coming quarterly reports whether comparable store sales turn, what the lawsuits cost and whether, after two goodwill tests, the balance sheet finally goes quiet. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Grocery Outlet is not a dying retailer but a growing discount machine with damaged trust: revenue rose 7.3 percent even in fiscal 2025, and on an adjusted basis $75.2 million of profit and $254.3 million of EBITDA remained. But the 2023 software failure lingered into 2025, goodwill was written off twice for a combined $307 million, 36 stores are closing, half of the operator loans sit in a support program, and two securities class actions are pending. Optically cheap on sales, fairly priced on adjusted earnings — the turnaround only pays once margin and comparable store sales turn. Not investment advice.
Business model & demand
The closeout discounter grows through every consumer slump: net sales rose from $3.97 billion to $4.69 billion between 2023 and 2025 (+7.3 percent most recently), gross margin held steady around 30 percent, and fiscal 2025 brought 1.6 percent more customer transactions — the value promise of name brands 40–70 percent below regular prices works (annual report 10-K for 2025).
Earnings quality & goodwill
A net loss of $224.9 million in fiscal 2025 and $180.3 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026; two goodwill impairments within two reporting periods ($149.0 + $158.0 million, the latter triggered by the company's own stock price); stockholders' equity down from $1,197.4 million to $807.1 million in five quarters; even the adjusted Q1 profit shrank from $13.0 million to $4.6 million.
Software failure & legal risk
The ERP conversion begun in August 2023 disrupted ordering, inventory and payment processing into fiscal 2025 (operating cash flow 2024: $112.0 million after $303.4 million in 2023); two securities class actions (2025 on the systems transition, 2026 on growth strategy/restructuring) and several derivative lawsuits are pending — outcomes and potential costs open.
Turnaround & operator system
The Optimization Plan (36 closures, one distribution center) and the restructuring plan (28 abandoned locations, $61.8 million in costs) form a coherent shrink cure under new CEO Jason Potter (since February 2025) — but 50.6 percent of operator note balances sit in the TCAP support program, and the agreement terminations already cost $15.5 million of extra provisions in Q1 of fiscal 2026.
Valuation & balance sheet
A price-to-sales ratio of 0.2 and 3.8 times operating cash flow look cheap, but on adjusted earnings the stock costs about 12.5 times profit and, including debt, about 5.4 times adjusted EBITDA — moderate for a construction site; $490 million of floating-rate debt comes due in February 2028 (cash: $59 million), an Altman Z-score around 3.0 keeps the insolvency question at bay; insiders and institutions were recent net buyers (data as of July 8, 2026).
Worth Noting
GO reached our research list via the Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom, 6 mentions in 24 hours as of July 15, 2026); attention waves of this kind are snapshots, not quality judgments. The 8 hits in our in-house stock scanner carry the July 8, 2026 data cut-off and shift daily.
Scanner metrics (P/S, P/CF, Piotroski, Altman Z, interest coverage) are computed on trailing twelve-month figures; the Q1 fiscal 2026 goodwill impairment and the March 2026 store closures show up in them only with a lag.
Price and valuation figures are dated July 8, 2026 (about $9.50, about $0.95 billion in market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at GO since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 5.80 $ to 17.00 $ · Last price: 11.60 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Grocery Stores
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery Outlet Holding Corp GO | 1.2 | – | 20.1 | 30.0 | – | 7.3 | -31.0 |
| Kroger Company KR | 37.0 | 36.5 | 9.9 | 23.9 | 3.2 | 0.4 | -6.3 |
| Sprouts Farmers Market LLC SFM | 6.5 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 38.9 | 9.2 | 14.1 | -43.6 |
| Albertsons Companies ACI | 6.3 | 33.1 | 6.7 | 27.0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | -28.8 |
| Weis Markets Inc WMK | 1.8 | 18.6 | 6.7 | 26.0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Ingles Markets Incorporated IMKTA | 1.6 | – | 6.0 | 24.3 | 6.2 | -5.4 | 19.1 |
| Yesway, Inc. YSWY | 1.4 | – | 41.1 | 20.8 | 6.9 | 5.8 | – |
| Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. NGVC | 0.7 | 14.7 | 10.1 | 33.5 | – | 7.2 | -18.0 |
| Village Super Market Inc VLGEA | 0.7 | – | 7.2 | 28.2 | – | 3.8 | 16.5 |
| Median of companies shown | 1.6 | 18.6 | 8.7 | 27.0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | -12.2 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,832 | 64 | 10 | 0.14 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | 2,075 | 77 | 21 | 0.28 | 85 | 427 | 1,318 |
| 2018 | 2,288 | 82 | 16 | 0.21 | 106 | 300 | 1,377 |
| 2019 | 2,560 | 68 | 15 | 0.19 | 133 | 745 | 2,186 |
| 2020 | 3,135 | 107 | 107 | 1.08 | 181 | 922 | 2,486 |
| 2021 | 3,080 | 89 | 62 | 0.63 | 166 | 1,009 | 2,670 |
| 2022 | 3,578 | 95 | 65 | 0.65 | 186 | 1,110 | 2,772 |
| 2023 | 3,969 | 126 | 79 | 0.79 | 303 | 1,219 | 2,970 |
| 2024 | 4,372 | 78 | 39 | 0.40 | 112 | 1,197 | 3,174 |
| 2025 | 4,689 | -222 | -225 | -2.30 | 222 | 984 | 3,091 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.02 | -83.10 | 1,098 | 10.90 | 0.20 | 40 | -27 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.24 | – | 1,126 | 8.50 | -2.10 | 59 | -6 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.05 | -63.90 | 1,180 | 4.50 | 0.40 | 74 | 14 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.12 | -51.90 | 1,168 | 5.40 | 1.00 | 32 | -24 |
| 2025: Q4 | -2.23 | -9,543.60 | 1,215 | 10.70 | -18.00 | 90 | 6 |
| 2026: Q1 | -1.83 | – | 1,166 | 3.60 | -15.50 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.06 | 20.00 | 1,193 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 43 | 1 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Momentum & Trend
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 0.55 | 0.52 – 0.59 | 4,701 | -28.3% | 14 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.67 | 0.52 – 0.79 | 4,918 | 23.5% | 14 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug in den ausgewerteten SEC-Berichten: Weder die Geschäftsberichte 10-K für 2025 und 2024 noch die letzten vier Quartalsberichte 10-Q enthalten Treffer zu „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“, „generative“, „LLM“ oder „AI“ — weder als Produkt, noch als operatives Werkzeug, noch als konkretes Geschäftsrisiko. Grocery Outlet ist ein „Extreme-Value“-Lebensmitteldiscounter mit opportunistischem Resteinkauf und selbständigen Filialbetreibern (IOs); die berichtsprägenden Themen sind die ERP-Systemumstellung von 2023, zwei Goodwill-Abschreibungen (149,0 + 158,0 Mio. US-Dollar), der Optimization Plan (36 Filialschließungen) und Anleger-Sammelklagen — keine KI-Themen. Negativ-Befund dokumentiert; geprüfte Filings siehe Liste.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-03-04 · 10-K 2025-02-26 · 10-Q 2026-05-13 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07
Rated on July 15, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 9.4%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 4.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 7.8%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 30.3%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 20.5%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 744 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -8.1%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 6.1%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
1/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 11.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 2.4%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 2.4%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 9
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -82.9%
- ROCE > 15% -8.1%
- Expected return > 10% 4.5%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | Jaros Carey F. | Director | Buy | 15,000 | 11.70 | 175,500 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kerr Frank Michael | See Remarks | Sell | 1,432 | 11.30 | 16,182 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Miller Paul Blaine | See Remarks | Buy | 8,000 | 10.90 | 87,200 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jaros Carey F. | Director | Other | 45,000 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ist ein Einzelhändler für Verbrauchsgüter und frische Produkte, die über unabhängig geführte Filialen in den USA verkauft werden.
- CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.)
- selling own stock
- Employees
- 1,642
- Headquarters
- EmeryVille, CA
- Address
- 5650 Hollis Street, 94608 EmeryVille, United States
- Phone
- 510 845 1999
- Website
- groceryoutlet.com
- IPO Date
- 06/20/2019
- ISIN
- US39874R1014
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jason Potter | President, CEO & Director | 1972 |
| Luke D. Thompson | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1972 |
| Andrea R. Bortner | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1962 |
| Ian D. Ferry | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | – |
| Susan Leary | Senior VP of Accounting & Principal Accounting Officer | 1974 |
| Kumar Mishra | SVP & Chief Information Officer | – |
| Nicolo Cottarelli | Senior Vice President of Strategic Finance & Investor Relations | – |
| Jon Decker | Senior Vice President of Stores, Sales & Merchandising | – |
| Jim Porterfield | Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Paul Miller | Executive Vice President, Chief Purchasing & Merchandising Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/12/2026 Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.