Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Whoever buys today bets that the new CEO works through the closures cleanly, that the ERP disruptions stay history and that the adjusted margin recovers before the February 2028 refinancing — and gets a growing discounter at 5.4 times adjusted EBITDA for it. Whoever waits may miss the bottom, but will see in the coming quarterly reports whether comparable store sales turn, what the lawsuits cost and whether, after two goodwill tests, the balance sheet finally goes quiet. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Grocery Outlet sells name-brand products 40 to 70 percent below regular prices — and its own stock trades about 79 percent below its all-time high (data as of July 8, 2026). The discounter is popping up in the Reddit chatter again (6 mentions in 24 hours as of July 15, 2026), and the bargain reflex asks: grab it? We read the annual reports (10-K) for 2024 and 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of April 4, 2026: an ERP conversion that disrupted operations for two years and drew investor lawsuits, goodwill written off twice ($307 million combined), 36 stores marked for closure — and an operator system in which half of the loans sit with supported storekeepers. Not investment advice — just the inventory count before you grab the deal.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at GO since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 9.20 $ — 26% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralKein wesentlicher KI-Bezug in den ausgewerteten SEC-Berichten: Weder die Geschäftsberichte 10-K für 2025 und 2024 noch die letzten vier Quartalsberichte 10-Q enthalten Treffer zu „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“, „generative“, „LLM“ oder „AI“ — weder als Produkt, noch als operatives Werkzeug, noch als konkretes Geschäftsrisiko. Grocery Outlet ist ein „Extreme-Value“-Lebensmitteldiscounter mit opportunistischem Resteinkauf und selbständigen Filialbetreibern (IOs); die berichtsprägenden Themen sind die ERP-Systemumstellung von 2023, zwei Goodwill-Abschreibungen (149,0 + 158,0 Mio. US-Dollar), der Optimization Plan (36 Filialschließungen) und Anleger-Sammelklagen — keine KI-Themen. Negativ-Befund dokumentiert; geprüfte Filings siehe Liste.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-03-04 · 10-K 2025-02-26 · 10-Q 2026-05-13 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07
Rated on July 15, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 8.9% below the current price.
- Consensus
- Hold
- Analyst Ratings
- 14
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 0.50 | 0.46 – 0.56 | 4,660 | -33.7% | 14 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.63 | 0.52 – 0.74 | 4,874 | 24.4% | 14 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.09 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.02 | -83.10 | 1,098 | 10.90 | 0.20 | 40 | -27 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.24 | – | 1,126 | 8.50 | -2.10 | 59 | -6 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.05 | -63.90 | 1,180 | 4.50 | 0.40 | 74 | 14 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.12 | -51.90 | 1,168 | 5.40 | 1.00 | 32 | -24 |
| 2025: Q4 | -2.23 | -9,543.60 | 1,215 | 10.70 | -18.00 | 90 | 6 |
| 2026: Q1 | -1.83 | – | 1,166 | 3.60 | -15.50 | 53 | 0 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,832 | 64 | 10 | 0.14 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | 2,075 | 77 | 21 | 0.28 | 85 | 427 | 1,318 |
| 2018 | 2,288 | 82 | 16 | 0.21 | 106 | 300 | 1,377 |
| 2019 | 2,560 | 68 | 15 | 0.19 | 133 | 745 | 2,186 |
| 2020 | 3,135 | 107 | 107 | 1.08 | 181 | 922 | 2,486 |
| 2021 | 3,080 | 89 | 62 | 0.63 | 166 | 1,009 | 2,670 |
| 2022 | 3,578 | 95 | 65 | 0.65 | 186 | 1,110 | 2,772 |
| 2023 | 3,969 | 126 | 79 | 0.79 | 303 | 1,219 | 2,970 |
| 2024 | 4,372 | 78 | 39 | 0.40 | 112 | 1,197 | 3,174 |
| 2025 | 4,689 | -222 | -225 | -2.30 | 222 | 984 | 3,091 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The closeout discounter grows through every consumer slump: net sales rose from $3.97 billion to $4.69 billion between 2023 and 2025 (+7.3 percent most recently), gross margin held steady around 30 percent, and fiscal 2025 brought 1.6 percent more customer transactions — the value promise of name brands 40–70 percent below regular prices works (annual report 10-K for 2025).
A net loss of $224.9 million in fiscal 2025 and $180.3 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026; two goodwill impairments within two reporting periods ($149.0 + $158.0 million, the latter triggered by the company's own stock price); stockholders' equity down from $1,197.4 million to $807.1 million in five quarters; even the adjusted Q1 profit shrank from $13.0 million to $4.6 million.
The ERP conversion begun in August 2023 disrupted ordering, inventory and payment processing into fiscal 2025 (operating cash flow 2024: $112.0 million after $303.4 million in 2023); two securities class actions (2025 on the systems transition, 2026 on growth strategy/restructuring) and several derivative lawsuits are pending — outcomes and potential costs open.
The Optimization Plan (36 closures, one distribution center) and the restructuring plan (28 abandoned locations, $61.8 million in costs) form a coherent shrink cure under new CEO Jason Potter (since February 2025) — but 50.6 percent of operator note balances sit in the TCAP support program, and the agreement terminations already cost $15.5 million of extra provisions in Q1 of fiscal 2026.
A price-to-sales ratio of 0.2 and 3.8 times operating cash flow look cheap, but on adjusted earnings the stock costs about 12.5 times profit and, including debt, about 5.4 times adjusted EBITDA — moderate for a construction site; $490 million of floating-rate debt comes due in February 2028 (cash: $59 million), an Altman Z-score around 3.0 keeps the insolvency question at bay; insiders and institutions were recent net buyers (data as of July 8, 2026).
Grocery Outlet is not a dying retailer but a growing discount machine with damaged trust: revenue rose 7.3 percent even in fiscal 2025, and on an adjusted basis $75.2 million of profit and $254.3 million of EBITDA remained. But the 2023 software failure lingered into 2025, goodwill was written off twice for a combined $307 million, 36 stores are closing, half of the operator loans sit in a support program, and two securities class actions are pending. Optically cheap on sales, fairly priced on adjusted earnings — the turnaround only pays once margin and comparable store sales turn. Not investment advice.
- GO reached our research list via the Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom, 6 mentions in 24 hours as of July 15, 2026); attention waves of this kind are snapshots, not quality judgments. The 8 hits in our in-house stock scanner carry the July 8, 2026 data cut-off and shift daily.
- Scanner metrics (P/S, P/CF, Piotroski, Altman Z, interest coverage) are computed on trailing twelve-month figures; the Q1 fiscal 2026 goodwill impairment and the March 2026 store closures show up in them only with a lag.
- Price and valuation figures are dated July 8, 2026 (about $9.50, about $0.95 billion in market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ist ein Einzelhändler für Verbrauchsgüter und frische Produkte, die über unabhängig geführte Filialen in den USA verkauft werden.
| CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.) | selling own stock |
|---|---|
| Employees | 1,642 |
| Headquarters | EmeryVille, CA |
| Address | 5650 Hollis Street, 94608 EmeryVille, United States |
| Phone | 510 845 1999 |
| Website | groceryoutlet.com |
| IPO Date | 20. Jun 2019 |
| ISIN | US39874R1014 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jason Potter | President, CEO & Director | 1972 |
| Luke D. Thompson | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1972 |
| Andrea R. Bortner | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1962 |
| Ian D. Ferry | Executive VP, CFO, Treasurer & VP of Investor Relations | – |
| Susan Leary | Senior VP of Accounting & Principal Accounting Officer | 1974 |
| Kumar Mishra | SVP & Chief Information Officer | – |
| Jon Decker | Senior Vice President of Stores, Sales & Merchandising | – |
| Jim Porterfield | Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Paul Miller | Executive Vice President, Chief Purchasing & Merchandising Officer | – |
| Dorian Bertsch | Senior VP of Strategy & Finance | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.