Ethos Technologies Inc.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow rather than green: the business clearly carries itself — a 98 percent gross margin, positive operating cash flow, $441.3 million of equity and no conventional bank debt as of March 31, 2026. What remains open is a material operating question: almost half the balance sheet consists of commissions receivable whose value rests on persistency estimates, and 88 percent of revenue depends on three carriers. Yellow rather than red: there is no documented threat to the substance of the company — no going-concern qualification, no negative equity, no interest burden pressing on the business, and the first-quarter 2026 loss is cleanly explained as one-time stock-based compensation from the IPO. That the stock has traded for only six months and swings hard is a price argument and does not move the light. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Ethos Technologies is a fast-growing life insurance distributor that reported genuine profits up to its January 29, 2026 IPO: $387.6 million of revenue and $71.2 million of net income in fiscal 2025, plus $193.1 million of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The $166.4 million net loss in that quarter stems from stock-based compensation tied to the listing, not from operations. Three other points decide the case: $291.4 million of the $619.4 million balance sheet is commissions receivable resting on persistency estimates, 88 percent of revenue comes from three carriers, and 95.4 percent of the voting power sits with the founders and two venture firms. The company itself guides to $114 million to $118 million for the second quarter of 2026 — extrapolate the first quarter and you will be wrong. Not investment advice.
Growth and earning power
Revenue rose from $159.8 million (2023) to $254.9 million (2024) to $387.6 million (2025), then 104 percent to $193.1 million in the first quarter of 2026. Unlike many young technology companies, real profit came with it: $71.2 million of net income in 2025 and $31.2 million of operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2026.
Business model and balance sheet risk
Ethos carries no insurance risk — the quarterly report for the period ended March 31, 2026 states explicitly that the company does not assume balance sheet risk for the policies on its platform. Gross margin runs at 98 percent, there is no conventional bank debt, and by the company's own math customer acquisition pays back in less than two months.
Revenue quality
Commissions are booked up front including expected future years. As a result, commissions receivable of $291.4 million sit in a $619.4 million balance sheet as of March 31, 2026 — 47 percent. Revisions to persistency estimates work retroactively: one such revision cost $16.5 million in the first quarter of 2026 and pushed contribution margin from 43 to 30 percent.
Customer concentration
Three carriers accounted for 45, 33 and 10 percent of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 (88 percent combined) and for 98 percent in fiscal 2024. As of March 31, 2026 a single partner held 67 percent of outstanding receivables. On the positive side, the largest partner's share has fallen from 54 to 45 percent.
Shareholder rights and dilution
Class B shares carrying 20 votes give the founders, Accel and Sequoia Capital roughly 95.4 percent of the voting power (March 31, 2026). On top of that come 19.0 million shares under the 2026 incentive plan, an employee program that grows each year, and 900,000 restricted stock units to each co-founder on July 8, 2026 — substantial dilution measured against 62,994,262 shares outstanding.
Guidance and seasonality
The company's own guidance of May 6, 2026 calls for revenue of just $114 million to $118 million in the second quarter of 2026 — roughly 40 percent below the first quarter, which management describes as seasonally the strongest. Full-year 2026 guidance was set at $561 million to $565 million, up from $510 million to $514 million in February. The raise therefore corresponds largely to the first quarter's beat.
Worth Noting
Ethos Technologies reached our research list not through a price scanner but through a run of Form 4 insider filings in July 2026, in which a shareholder registered as a 10 percent owner sold shares on almost every trading day. The listing dates only from January 29, 2026 — screens built on multi-year series or fifty-two-week windows do not yet apply to this stock.
A caution on market capitalization: Ethos has two share classes. Price databases frequently count only the 30,914,997 listed Class A shares and miss the 32,079,265 Class B shares. This analysis works with 62,994,262 shares (cover page of the quarterly report, as of April 30, 2026); the valuation anchor of roughly $1.28 billion rests on the closing price of July 30, 2026.
The first-quarter 2026 net loss is an accounting event, not an operating one: 5.7 million deferred stock units vested with the IPO and produced $181.7 million of expense, of which $49.1 million left as cash in withheld taxes. Adjusted for stock-based compensation, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization came to $33.6 million.
Not to be confused: Ethos Technologies is a distributor and administrator, not an insurer — the mortality risk on the policies it places sits with the partner carriers. Insurance-sector metrics such as combined ratio or underwriting result do not apply here.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at LIFE since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 9.90 $ to 42.00 $ · Last price: 36.40 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Insurance Brokers
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethos Technologies Inc. LIFE | 2.3 | – | 17.2 | 98.1 | -84.6 | 52.1 | – |
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MRSH | 84.8 | 22.6 | 14.6 | 44.0 | 24.3 | 10.3 | -9.7 |
| Aon PLC AON | 63.2 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 48.2 | 35.8 | 9.5 | -16.5 |
| Arthur J Gallagher & Co AJG | 62.0 | 41.2 | 18.7 | 43.2 | 28.4 | 20.7 | -15.4 |
| Willis Towers Watson PLC WTW | 29.4 | 18.7 | 13.1 | 42.5 | 20.5 | -2.2 | -5.3 |
| Brown & Brown Inc BRO | 22.1 | 22.8 | 12.1 | 56.3 | 47.2 | 26.6 | -28.7 |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | 12.8 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 17.9 | 19.1 | 7.2 | -21.8 |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | 4.3 | – | 0.0 | 65.1 | -2.2 | 47.2 | 17.1 |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. NP | 4.1 | 143.7 | 58.6 | 52.7 | 47.5 | 33.7 | – |
| Median of companies shown | 22.1 | 22.6 | 13.1 | 48.2 | 24.3 | 20.7 | -15.4 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 160 | -3 | 2 | 0.03 | -37 | -159 | 280 |
| 2024 | 255 | 49 | 49 | 0.78 | -11 | -107 | 396 |
| 2025 | 388 | 73 | 71 | 1.14 | 36 | -24 | 515 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025: Q4 | 0.42 | – | 110 | 65.50 | 22.30 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.38 | – | 193 | 103.50 | -86.20 | 31 | 29 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.30 | – | 190 | – | 10.30 | 36 | 35 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 3 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 1.75 | 1.66 – 1.99 | 730 | 25.3% | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2.63 | 2.22 – 3.09 | 938 | 50.1% | 4 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 13.8% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $73.2M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.30B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $267.1M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 61.3% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Ethos verkauft keine KI, sondern Lebensversicherungs-Policen gegen Provision — setzt KI und Machine Learning aber im eigenen Betrieb ein: im automatisierten Underwriting („predictive modeling platform“) sowie laut Risikobericht in Kundenbetreuung, Lead-Steuerung, Betrugserkennung bei Agenten und in der Entwicklung.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We utilize artificial intelligence, machine learning, and similar tools and technologies, including generative AI and agentic AI (collectively, “AI”) that collect, aggregate, analyze or generate data or other materials or content in connection with our business, including customer-facing, operational and back-office functions, such as customer support, lead targeting, agent fraud detection, and development tooling."
Wir setzen künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und ähnliche Werkzeuge und Technologien ein, darunter generative KI und agentische KI (zusammen „KI“), die Daten oder andere Materialien oder Inhalte im Zusammenhang mit unserem Geschäft sammeln, zusammenführen, auswerten oder erzeugen — einschließlich kundenzugewandter, operativer und interner Funktionen wie Kundenbetreuung, Lead-Steuerung, Betrugserkennung bei Agenten und Entwicklungswerkzeugen.
10-Q · 2026-05-08 · View SEC filing
„The streamlined application process is achieved through the Company’s full stack technology and predictive modeling platform which simplifies and automates the underwriting process allowing families to obtain same-day coverage."
Der verschlankte Antragsprozess wird durch die durchgängige Technologie- und Prognosemodell-Plattform des Unternehmens erreicht, die den Underwriting-Prozess vereinfacht und automatisiert und es Familien ermöglicht, noch am selben Tag Versicherungsschutz zu erhalten.
10-K · 2026-03-17 · View SEC filing
„We utilize artificial intelligence, machine learning, and similar tools and technologies, or collectively, AI, that collect, aggregate, analyze or generate data or other materials or content in connection with our business, including ancillary and operational functions, such as customer support, lead targeting, agent fraud detection, and development tooling."
Wir setzen künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und ähnliche Werkzeuge und Technologien (zusammen „KI“) ein, die Daten oder andere Materialien oder Inhalte im Zusammenhang mit unserem Geschäft sammeln, zusammenführen, auswerten oder erzeugen — einschließlich unterstützender und operativer Funktionen wie Kundenbetreuung, Lead-Steuerung, Betrugserkennung bei Agenten und Entwicklungswerkzeugen.
10-K · 2026-03-17 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-08 · 10-K 2026-03-17 · 8-K 2026-05-06 · 424B4 2026-01-30
Rated on July 31, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -69.1%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year no data
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 59.8%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 98.3%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue no data
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 124 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -133 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 18.1%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 12.3%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 55.5%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 52.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -1.7x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight –
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% –
- ROCE > 15% 18.1%
- Expected return > 10% 54.1%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 426,482 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 247,656 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 24,308 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 67,599 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 1,605,456 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 426,482 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 247,656 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 24,308 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 67,599 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sc Us (Ttgp), Ltd. | 10% Owner | Other | 1,605,456 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Ethos Technologies Inc. provides third-party administrator services for insurance policies in the United States. The company offers Ethos, a three-sided technology platform that serves an ecosystem of consumers, agents, and carriers. It also provides term life insurance, whole life insurance, and indexed universal life insurance products, as well as wills and estate planning, and supplemental health insurance products. The company was formerly known as Ethos Insurance Corporation and changed its name to Ethos Technologies Inc. in August 2016. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in San Francisco, California.
- Employees
- 614
- Headquarters
- San Francisco, CA
- Address
- 90 New Montgomery Street, 94105 San Francisco, United States
- Phone
- 415 915 0665
- Website
- ethos.com
- IPO Date
- 01/29/2026
- ISIN
- US29765A1016
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Peter George Colis | Co-Founder, CEO & Chair of Board of Directors | 1990 |
| Lingke Wang | Co-Founder, President & Director | 1991 |
| Vipul Sharma | Chief Technology Officer | 1980 |
| Kunal Mehta | Senior Vice President of Finance | 1982 |
| Christopher Michael Capozzi | Chief Financial Officer | 1978 |
| Brett Wilson | Senior Vice President of Strategic Accounts & Operations | – |
| Brandt Walter Kucharski | Chief Accounting Officer | 1980 |
| Aaron Ellison Turner | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Porter Nolan | General Counsel | – |
| Laura Heeger | Chief Compliance & Privacy Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.