CTO Realty Growth Inc (CTO)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Whoever buys today bets that rents keep growing at double-digit rates, the loan book stays clean, and the dilution finally turns into growth per share — in exchange for a 7.2 percent running yield as a risk premium. Whoever waits checks three spots in every quarterly report (10-Q): AFFO per share (growing for the first time since 2023?), the ATM line (how many new shares?), and the loan schedule (still zero delinquent?). A first dividend increase since 2023 would be the strongest signal that management trusts its own coverage. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
CTO Realty Growth rents out shopping centers across the American Sunbelt and pays a dividend yield of about 7 percent (data as of July 8, 2026). In June 2025 a short report called that payout unaffordable — the next day the CEO, CFO, general counsel and a board member bought shares, and twelve months later the stock sits near an all-time high while Reddit is only starting to notice, at 7 mentions in 24 hours (ApeWisdom, as of July 17, 2026). We read the annual reports (10-K) for 2024 and 2025, the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026, and the insider filings (Form 4): growing rents, a dividend frozen for three years, 45 percent more shares since the end of 2022, and a loan book charging double-digit interest. Not investment advice — just the question of who is right: the wolf at the door or the insiders at the register.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 17, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CTO since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 14 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 22.10 $ — 94% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/04/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 8.6%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 11.6%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -1.3%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 18.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 17.2x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 80.7%
- Return on equity > 15% 2.1%
- ROCE > 15% 2.7%
- Expected return > 10% 28.4%
View all AAQS quality stocks · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 17.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 (eingereicht 19.02.2026), den 10-K 2024 (20.02.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings des Shopping-Center-REITs CTO Realty Growth findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. Die vier 10-Q enthalten null Treffer zu „artificial intelligence“; der 10-K 2025 enthält ausschließlich generische Risk-Factor-Floskeln (Item 1A) — etwa dass neue Technologien „including artificial intelligence“ den Wettbewerb für die eigenen Einzelhandels-Mieter erhöhen könnten und dass KI-Nutzung allgemein Wettbewerbs-, Rechts- und Cyber-Risiken schaffen kann („The use of AI by us and others … may exacerbate or create new and unpredictable competitive, operational, legal and regulatory risks to our business“). Weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle noch dokumentierter operativer KI-Einsatz noch ein konkretes, aufs eigene Geschäftsmodell bezogenes KI-Risiko — nach dem Kriterienkatalog bleibt es bei „neutral“ (Boilerplate-Risk-Floskeln sind kein Bedroht-Beleg).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-04-28 · 10-Q 2025-10-28 · 10-Q 2025-07-29 · 10-Q 2025-05-01 · 10-K 2026-02-19 · 10-K 2025-02-20
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth Score
4 of 10 Weak growthTen checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 22.0% passed
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 5.7% failed
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 20.4% failed
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 53.2% passed
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion -5.6% failed
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0% passed
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 5.8 x EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 157 m passed
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 2.7% failed
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 4.5% failed
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 10.4% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 7
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 0.67 | 0.67 – 0.67 | 173 | – | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.44 | 0.25 – 0.62 | 186 | – | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.50 | -282.20 | 36 | 19.60 | -42.60 | 24 | 24 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.07 | -68.10 | 36 | 27.30 | 6.30 | 10 | 10 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.72 | -1,478.30 | 38 | 30.50 | -62.20 | 22 | 22 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.09 | -62.00 | 38 | 18.70 | 8.00 | 26 | 26 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.88 | – | 38 | 7.30 | 73.90 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.19 | 166.60 | 41 | 15.00 | 15.10 | 15 | 15 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 71 | 37 | 16 | 0.95 | 14 | 148 | 409 |
| 2017 | 91 | 40 | 42 | 2.49 | 58 | 184 | 466 |
| 2018 | 87 | 63 | 37 | 2.24 | 49 | 212 | 556 |
| 2019 | 45 | 34 | 115 | 7.67 | 16 | 285 | 703 |
| 2020 | 56 | 12 | 79 | 5.56 | 17 | 351 | 666 |
| 2021 | 70 | 23 | 30 | 1.69 | 28 | 430 | 733 |
| 2022 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 0.17 | 56 | 505 | 987 |
| 2023 | 109 | 27 | 6 | 0.25 | 46 | 458 | 990 |
| 2024 | 125 | 18 | -2 | -0.08 | 60 | 613 | 1,182 |
| 2025 | 150 | 33 | 10 | 0.31 | 65 | 567 | 1,264 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Revenue up 113 percent in four years to $149.5 million (2025), Q1 2026 up 15 percent; economic occupancy of the shopping centers improved from 89 to 92 percent, 96 percent including signed leases; 85 percent of the space in growth states, no tenant above 10 percent of revenue (10-K 2025).
A $1.52 dividend is 77 percent of the in-house AFFO ($1.97) — but the definition does not deduct recurring capital expenditures (10-K 2025, Item 7), and 2025 operating cash flow ($64.6 million) left only about $8 million after $56.6 million of total dividends, with $23.1 million of capital improvements already committed. Covered, yes — but only through the mildest lens, and without a raise for three years.
Plus 45 percent more shares since the end of 2022 (22.9 to 33.3 million as of 03/31/2026), the $250 million ATM program is an official liquidity source per the 10-K, and Q1 2026 added another 733,883 new shares; $8.3 million of cash against $14.4 million of quarterly dividends and $616 million of long-term debt — AFFO and dividend per share stagnate accordingly.
External management of PINE by the same executives, with the conflict risk documented in CTO's own filing ("decisions that are not in the best interest of our stockholders", 10-K 2025, Item 1A), plus the triangle of portfolio management and PINE mortgage (Note 5) and a growing high-yield loan book with a $75 million lump at 12 percent (10-Q Q1 2026, Note 23) — a structure that invites accusations, as the short report of 06/25/2025 demonstrated.
Stage-2 uptrend, price near an all-time high, 12 scanner hits, Piotroski 7 of 9, fundamental grade B (data as of July 8, 2026); 9 insider purchases against zero sales in twelve months — the CEO, CFO and general counsel bought the day after the short report (Form 4, 06/26/2025), about 24 percent below the July 2026 price level; no pending proceedings per the 10-K (February 2026).
CTO is a growing Sunbelt landlord with a price tag of a 7.2 percent dividend yield — and the price tag is honest: it pays the investor for carrying a mild AFFO definition, cash coverage that is almost fully used up, ongoing dilution through the ATM program, a governance double mandate around PINE, and a high-yield loan book. The June 2025 short report pointed at real structures but has so far triggered neither a lawsuit nor an impairment — the insiders answered with purchases, the market with an all-time high. Whoever invests here should do it for the business, not for the 7 before the decimal point. Not investment advice.
- CTO reached the research list via the Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom, 7 mentions in 24 hours, as of July 17, 2026) — the 12 hits in our in-house stock scanner (data as of July 8, 2026) provided the confluence, the short report of 06/25/2025 the audit mandate.
- REIT particularity: the trailing P/E (~104) is distorted by real estate depreciation and the one-off loss from the convertible settlement ($20.4 million, Q2 2025); what matters are FFO/AFFO per share and the cash coverage of the dividend. CTO's AFFO definition does not deduct recurring capital expenditures — comparisons with peer AFFOs therefore limp.
- Price and valuation figures dated July 8, 2026 (about $21.10, about $700 million market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. The short report's accusations are claims by Wolfpack Research (which profits from falling prices); the reconciliation against the filings is marked as such throughout the text.
About the Company
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. ist ein börsennotierter Real Estate Investment Trust.
| CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.) | buying own stock |
|---|---|
| Employees | 42 |
| Headquarters | Winter Park, FL |
| Address | 369 N. New York Avenue, 32789 Winter Park, United States |
| Phone | 386 274 2202 |
| Website | ctoreit.com |
| IPO Date | 8. Sep 1992 |
| ISIN | US22948Q1013 |
| Stock Split | 3:1 on 07/01/2022 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John P. Albright | President, CEO & Director | 1966 |
| Philip R. Mays CPA | Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer | 1968 |
| Steven Robert Greathouse | Senior VP & Chief Investment Officer | 1978 |
| Lisa M. Vorakoun | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1984 |
| Daniel E. Smith Esq. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1966 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: August 3, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.