Carnival Corporation (CCL)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The business demonstrably works: 104 percent occupancy, customer deposits at an all-time high of $9.0 billion, $6.2 billion of operating cash flow in fiscal 2025 and record revenue. What remains open is one operating question and one balance sheet question, and both are real: in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 reported operating income fell $83 million despite revenue growth because fuel prices rose 29 percent — and the balance sheet still carries $24.9 billion of debt on a 23.8 percent equity ratio, with an Altman Z of 1.27 only 0.17 points above the distress zone. Red would require a substance finding, and there is none: interest coverage is 3.32, every covenant is met, liquidity stands at $6.7 billion, and the business generates billions of cash every half year. Green is out of reach while the balance sheet is unfinished — especially with $18.5 billion of ship commitments running alongside. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Carnival has cut $9.5 billion of debt since the peak, pays a dividend again and buys back its own shares. In the quarter ended May 31, 2026 revenue reached $6.66 billion — yet reported operating income fell from $934 million to $851 million. At the same time, commitments for new ships climbed from $11.9 billion to $18.5 billion in six months, and the fleet has been depreciated over 35 instead of 30 years since December 2025. We read the quarterly report, the annual report and the filing on the move to Bermuda. Not a recommendation — just the arithmetic behind the record headline.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CCL since then.
Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 2 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 27.80 $ — 39% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AICarnival verkauft keine KI, sondern setzt sie im eigenen Vertrieb ein: Der Geschäftsbericht 2025 nennt KI ausdrücklich als Hebel für Marketing-Wirksamkeit, personalisierte Angebote und Effizienz über alle Marken hinweg; zugleich warnt derselbe Bericht davor, die passende Technik nicht rechtzeitig einzuführen.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We are also enhancing our commercial strategies by leveraging AI to improve marketing effectiveness, deliver personalized experiences and drive efficiency gains across all our cruise lines."
Wir verbessern unsere Vertriebsstrategien außerdem, indem wir KI nutzen, um die Wirksamkeit des Marketings zu erhöhen, personalisierte Erlebnisse zu liefern und über alle unsere Kreuzfahrtmarken hinweg Effizienzgewinne zu erzielen.
„A failure to adopt the appropriate technology, including AI, or a failure, disruption or obsolescence in the technology that we do adopt, could have adverse effects on our business."
Wenn wir die passende Technik einschließlich KI nicht einführen oder wenn die eingeführte Technik ausfällt, gestört wird oder veraltet, kann das nachteilige Auswirkungen auf unser Geschäft haben.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-01-27 · 10-Q 2026-06-26 · 10-Q 2026-03-27 · 8-K 2026-05-07 · 8-K 2026-06-23 · 10-K 2025-01-27
Rated on July 26, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 27.9% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 28
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30/2026 | 2.24 | 2.20 – 2.33 | 27,635 | -0.3% | 26 |
| 11/30/2027 | 2.64 | 2.39 – 2.82 | 28,616 | 17.6% | 27 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 1.35 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.22 | – | 5,938 | 10.00 | 5.10 | 911 | 319 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.06 | – | 5,810 | 7.50 | -1.30 | 925 | 318 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.40 | 457.50 | 6,328 | 9.50 | 8.90 | 2,392 | 1,541 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8,153 | 3.30 | 22.70 | 1,383 | 736 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.30 | 38.90 | 6,330 | 6.60 | 6.70 | 1,518 | 12 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.19 | – | 6,165 | 6.10 | 4.20 | 1,263 | 697 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16,389 | 3,071 | 2,779 | 3.72 | 5,134 | 22,597 | 38,936 |
| 2017 | 17,510 | 2,809 | 2,606 | 3.59 | 5,322 | 24,216 | 40,778 |
| 2018 | 18,880 | 3,325 | 3,152 | 4.44 | 5,549 | 24,443 | 42,401 |
| 2019 | 20,825 | 3,276 | 2,990 | 4.32 | 5,475 | 25,365 | 45,058 |
| 2020 | 5,594 | -8,865 | -10,236 | -13.21 | -6,301 | 20,555 | 53,593 |
| 2021 | 1,908 | -7,089 | -9,501 | -8.46 | -4,109 | 12,145 | 53,344 |
| 2022 | 12,169 | -4,379 | -6,093 | -5.16 | -1,670 | 7,064 | 51,703 |
| 2023 | 21,593 | 1,956 | -74 | -0.06 | 4,281 | 6,882 | 49,120 |
| 2024 | 25,021 | 3,574 | 1,916 | 1.37 | 5,923 | 9,252 | 49,057 |
| 2025 | 26,622 | 4,483 | 2,760 | 1.97 | 6,218 | 12,284 | 51,687 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Occupancy in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 was 104 percent, unchanged from the prior-year quarter, customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9.0 billion (November 30, 2025: $7.2 billion), and onboard revenue grew 7.4 percent against 4.1 percent for the ticket. The company reports its twelfth consecutive quarter of record net yields and says it is 93 percent booked for the year.
Debt fell from the peak of $34,346 million (November 30, 2022) to $24,889 million (May 31, 2026). Half-year interest expense dropped from $718 million to $577 million, down 20 percent. That is exactly where the earnings turn comes from: half-year operating income was essentially flat at $1,458 million against $1,477 million, yet net income rose from $486 million to $795 million.
In the quarter ended May 31, 2026 a $335 million revenue increase met a $339 million cost increase; reported operating income fell from $934 million to $851 million. Drivers named in the filing: $121 million of higher fuel prices ($793 versus $614 per ton) and $103 million of missing ship-sale gains. Excluding the one-off, operating income would have risen by roughly $20 million; on the company segment measure it rose $34 million to $869 million.
As of May 31, 2026, $12,984 million of equity stands against $52,228 million of total assets — a ratio of 23.8 percent with debt-to-equity of 2.18. Interest coverage is 3.32 against a covenant requirement of at least 3.0; all covenants were met at the reporting date. The Altman Z-score of 1.27 sits only 0.17 points above the distress threshold of 1.1 (data as of July 26, 2026).
Commitments for new ships rose from $11.9 billion to $18.5 billion between November 30, 2025 and May 31, 2026, because three LNG ships for Princess Cruises with delivery in 2035, 2038 and 2039 were ordered. That is roughly 18 percent of market capitalization. Existing undrawn export credit facilities of $10.8 billion only cover deliveries through 2033. In parallel, the depreciable lives of ships were extended from 30 to 35 years effective December 1, 2025.
About $36.1 billion of market capitalization (1,369,649,119 shares, closing price $26.33 on July 24, 2026) and an enterprise value near $59.4 billion equate roughly to twelve times earnings and 8.4 times the $7.11 billion of adjusted EBITDA guided for 2026. Twenty-eight analysts arrive at an average rating of 4.46 on a scale to 5. The company itself repurchased shares in May 2026 at an average of $25.65.
Carnival has the hardest part behind it: a $10.2 billion loss in fiscal 2020 became a $2.8 billion profit in 2025, $34.3 billion of debt became $24.9 billion, and zero distributions became $414 million of dividends in a half year. Demand is documented: 104 percent occupancy, $9.0 billion of customer deposits, 93 percent of the year booked. What stays uncomfortable is the simultaneity: in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 reported operating income fell from $934 million to $851 million despite record revenue, new ship commitments rose from $11.9 billion to $18.5 billion in six months, ships have been depreciated over 35 instead of 30 years since December 2025, and the Altman Z bankruptcy early-warning score of 1.27 sits only 0.17 points above the distress zone. Not investment advice.
- Carnival reached our research list through our in-house stock scanner "turnaround candidates": rank 24 of 62 US hits, turnaround check 6 of 8, as of July 25, 2026. These lists are recalculated daily — rank and score are a dated snapshot, not a permanent state. Six of eight is also the display floor of the list.
- The scanner's two mandatory pillars: at least 50 percent below the all-time high (Carnival: roughly 63 percent, measured from the highest closing price of $71.94 on January 29, 2018 against $26.33 on July 24, 2026) and an Altman Z-score of at least 1.1 (Carnival: 1.27). Should the price rise above about $36, pillar 1 breaks and the stock leaves the list without anything changing in the business.
- Not a takeover: the unification of the dual listed company structure on May 7, 2026 was an internal restructuring under a UK scheme of arrangement. Carnival plc became a subsidiary, the place of incorporation moved from Panama to Bermuda, and both the CUK secondary listing and the London listing ended. The DEFM14A dated February 27, 2026 belongs to that transaction, not to a sale of the company.
- The fiscal year ends November 30. The latest periodic report is the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended May 31, 2026 (filed June 26, 2026); no further filing existed as of July 26, 2026. Guidance figures come from the Form 8-K dated June 23, 2026 and are company statements, not our own estimates.
- Price references are dated valuation anchors, not buy arguments: closing price $26.33 on July 24, 2026, highest closing price $71.94 on January 29, 2018, 52-week high $33.99 on February 6, 2026. Cross-check on market capitalization: 1,369,649,119 shares × $26.33 gives $36.06 billion, matching the figure from fundamental data.
- Risk of confusion: Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL on the NYSE) is not the same as the British Carnival plc, which has been a subsidiary without its own listing since May 7, 2026. The CUK ticker has not existed since that date, and there is no longer a corresponding London listing.
About the Company
Carnival Corporation Ltd. ist ein Kreuzfahrtunternehmen, das Freizeitreisen in Nordamerika, Australien, Europa und international anbietet.
| Employees | 160,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Miami, FL |
| Address | 3655 N.W. 87th Avenue, 33178-2428 Miami, United States |
| Phone | 305 599 2600 |
| Website | carnivalcorp.com |
| IPO Date | 24. Jul 1987 |
| ISIN | BMG2004J1036 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 06/15/1998 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Meir Arison | Executive Chairman of the Board | 1949 |
| Joshua Ian Weinstein | CEO & Director | 1974 |
| David Bernstein | CFO & Chief Accounting Officer | 1958 |
| Enrique Miguez J.D. | General Counsel | 1965 |
| Bettina A. Deynes | Global Chief Human Resources Officer | 1973 |
| Lars Ljoen | Chief Maritime Officer | 1970 |
| Beth Roberts | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Jody Venturoni | Chief Communications Officer | – |
| Hon. E. H. Horst Rahe | Life President of AIDA Cruises | – |
| Adolfo M. Perez | Senior Vice President of Trade Sales and Marketing for Carnival Cruise Line | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.