Carnival Corporation
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The business demonstrably works: 104 percent occupancy, customer deposits at an all-time high of $9.0 billion, $6.2 billion of operating cash flow in fiscal 2025 and record revenue. What remains open is one operating question and one balance sheet question, and both are real: in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 reported operating income fell $83 million despite revenue growth because fuel prices rose 29 percent — and the balance sheet still carries $24.9 billion of debt on a 23.8 percent equity ratio, with an Altman Z of 1.27 only 0.17 points above the distress zone. Red would require a substance finding, and there is none: interest coverage is 3.32, every covenant is met, liquidity stands at $6.7 billion, and the business generates billions of cash every half year. Green is out of reach while the balance sheet is unfinished — especially with $18.5 billion of ship commitments running alongside. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Carnival has the hardest part behind it: a $10.2 billion loss in fiscal 2020 became a $2.8 billion profit in 2025, $34.3 billion of debt became $24.9 billion, and zero distributions became $414 million of dividends in a half year. Demand is documented: 104 percent occupancy, $9.0 billion of customer deposits, 93 percent of the year booked. What stays uncomfortable is the simultaneity: in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 reported operating income fell from $934 million to $851 million despite record revenue, new ship commitments rose from $11.9 billion to $18.5 billion in six months, ships have been depreciated over 35 instead of 30 years since December 2025, and the Altman Z bankruptcy early-warning score of 1.27 sits only 0.17 points above the distress zone. Not investment advice.
Demand & business model
Occupancy in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 was 104 percent, unchanged from the prior-year quarter, customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9.0 billion (November 30, 2025: $7.2 billion), and onboard revenue grew 7.4 percent against 4.1 percent for the ticket. The company reports its twelfth consecutive quarter of record net yields and says it is 93 percent booked for the year.
Deleveraging & interest burden
Debt fell from the peak of $34,346 million (November 30, 2022) to $24,889 million (May 31, 2026). Half-year interest expense dropped from $718 million to $577 million, down 20 percent. That is exactly where the earnings turn comes from: half-year operating income was essentially flat at $1,458 million against $1,477 million, yet net income rose from $486 million to $795 million.
Operating margin
In the quarter ended May 31, 2026 a $335 million revenue increase met a $339 million cost increase; reported operating income fell from $934 million to $851 million. Drivers named in the filing: $121 million of higher fuel prices ($793 versus $614 per ton) and $103 million of missing ship-sale gains. Excluding the one-off, operating income would have risen by roughly $20 million; on the company segment measure it rose $34 million to $869 million.
Balance sheet substance
As of May 31, 2026, $12,984 million of equity stands against $52,228 million of total assets — a ratio of 23.8 percent with debt-to-equity of 2.18. Interest coverage is 3.32 against a covenant requirement of at least 3.0; all covenants were met at the reporting date. The Altman Z-score of 1.27 sits only 0.17 points above the distress threshold of 1.1 (data as of July 26, 2026).
Capital program
Commitments for new ships rose from $11.9 billion to $18.5 billion between November 30, 2025 and May 31, 2026, because three LNG ships for Princess Cruises with delivery in 2035, 2038 and 2039 were ordered. That is roughly 18 percent of market capitalization. Existing undrawn export credit facilities of $10.8 billion only cover deliveries through 2033. In parallel, the depreciable lives of ships were extended from 30 to 35 years effective December 1, 2025.
Valuation & market view
About $36.1 billion of market capitalization (1,369,649,119 shares, closing price $26.33 on July 24, 2026) and an enterprise value near $59.4 billion equate roughly to twelve times earnings and 8.4 times the $7.11 billion of adjusted EBITDA guided for 2026. Twenty-eight analysts arrive at an average rating of 4.46 on a scale to 5. The company itself repurchased shares in May 2026 at an average of $25.65.
Worth Noting
Carnival reached our research list through our in-house stock scanner "turnaround candidates": rank 24 of 62 US hits, turnaround check 6 of 8, as of July 25, 2026. These lists are recalculated daily — rank and score are a dated snapshot, not a permanent state. Six of eight is also the display floor of the list.
The scanner's two mandatory pillars: at least 50 percent below the all-time high (Carnival: roughly 63 percent, measured from the highest closing price of $71.94 on January 29, 2018 against $26.33 on July 24, 2026) and an Altman Z-score of at least 1.1 (Carnival: 1.27). Should the price rise above about $36, pillar 1 breaks and the stock leaves the list without anything changing in the business.
Not a takeover: the unification of the dual listed company structure on May 7, 2026 was an internal restructuring under a UK scheme of arrangement. Carnival plc became a subsidiary, the place of incorporation moved from Panama to Bermuda, and both the CUK secondary listing and the London listing ended. The DEFM14A dated February 27, 2026 belongs to that transaction, not to a sale of the company.
The fiscal year ends November 30. The latest periodic report is the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended May 31, 2026 (filed June 26, 2026); no further filing existed as of July 26, 2026. Guidance figures come from the Form 8-K dated June 23, 2026 and are company statements, not our own estimates.
Price references are dated valuation anchors, not buy arguments: closing price $26.33 on July 24, 2026, highest closing price $71.94 on January 29, 2018, 52-week high $33.99 on February 6, 2026. Cross-check on market capitalization: 1,369,649,119 shares × $26.33 gives $36.06 billion, matching the figure from fundamental data.
Risk of confusion: Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL on the NYSE) is not the same as the British Carnival plc, which has been a subsidiary without its own listing since May 7, 2026. The CUK ticker has not existed since that date, and there is no longer a corresponding London listing.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CCL since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 22.10 $ to 34.00 $ · Last price: 22.20 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/17/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Travel Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnival Corporation CCL | 32.3 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 55.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | -27.2 |
| Booking Holdings Inc BKNG | 132.1 | 23.7 | 12.1 | 87.2 | 25.0 | 13.4 | -22.5 |
| Airbnb Inc ABNB | 98.7 | 42.6 | 32.2 | 82.9 | 3.2 | 10.3 | 34.7 |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | 67.0 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 50.3 | 26.2 | 8.8 | -20.9 |
| Viking Holdings Ltd VIK | 37.4 | 31.8 | 20.4 | 44.3 | 1.2 | 21.9 | 37.0 |
| Expedia Group Inc. EXPE | 33.2 | 27.5 | 9.0 | 90.4 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 28.5 |
| Trip.com Group Ltd TCOM | 25.9 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 80.3 | 24.3 | 13.9 | -47.2 |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH | 6.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 42.5 | 10.5 | 3.7 | -43.3 |
| Global Business Travel Group Inc GBTG | 5.0 | 59.6 | 16.4 | 58.5 | – | 12.2 | 15.5 |
| Median of companies shown | 33.2 | 23.7 | 12.1 | 58.5 | 11.7 | 10.3 | -20.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16,389 | 3,071 | 2,779 | 3.72 | 5,134 | 22,597 | 38,936 |
| 2017 | 17,510 | 2,809 | 2,606 | 3.59 | 5,322 | 24,216 | 40,778 |
| 2018 | 18,880 | 3,325 | 3,152 | 4.44 | 5,549 | 24,443 | 42,401 |
| 2019 | 20,825 | 3,276 | 2,990 | 4.32 | 5,475 | 25,365 | 45,058 |
| 2020 | 5,594 | -8,865 | -10,236 | -13.21 | -6,301 | 20,555 | 53,593 |
| 2021 | 1,908 | -7,089 | -9,501 | -8.46 | -4,109 | 12,145 | 53,344 |
| 2022 | 12,169 | -4,379 | -6,093 | -5.16 | -1,670 | 7,064 | 51,703 |
| 2023 | 21,593 | 1,956 | -74 | -0.06 | 4,281 | 6,882 | 49,120 |
| 2024 | 25,021 | 3,574 | 1,916 | 1.37 | 5,923 | 9,252 | 49,057 |
| 2025 | 26,622 | 4,483 | 2,760 | 1.97 | 6,218 | 12,284 | 51,687 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.22 | – | 5,938 | 10.00 | 5.10 | 911 | 319 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.06 | – | 5,810 | 7.50 | -1.30 | 925 | 318 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.40 | 457.50 | 6,328 | 9.50 | 8.90 | 2,392 | 1,541 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8,153 | 3.30 | 22.70 | 1,383 | 736 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.30 | 38.90 | 6,330 | 6.60 | 6.70 | 1,518 | 12 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.19 | – | 6,165 | 6.10 | 4.20 | 1,263 | 697 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30/2026 | 2.24 | 2.17 – 2.33 | 27,645 | -0.6% | 26 |
| 11/30/2027 | 2.63 | 2.39 – 2.82 | 28,634 | 17.4% | 27 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -1.7% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $3.20B |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $32.33B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $2.69B |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 43.9% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Carnival verkauft keine KI, sondern setzt sie im eigenen Vertrieb ein: Der Geschäftsbericht 2025 nennt KI ausdrücklich als Hebel für Marketing-Wirksamkeit, personalisierte Angebote und Effizienz über alle Marken hinweg; zugleich warnt derselbe Bericht davor, die passende Technik nicht rechtzeitig einzuführen.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We are also enhancing our commercial strategies by leveraging AI to improve marketing effectiveness, deliver personalized experiences and drive efficiency gains across all our cruise lines."
Wir verbessern unsere Vertriebsstrategien außerdem, indem wir KI nutzen, um die Wirksamkeit des Marketings zu erhöhen, personalisierte Erlebnisse zu liefern und über alle unsere Kreuzfahrtmarken hinweg Effizienzgewinne zu erzielen.
10-K · 2026-01-27 · View SEC filing
„A failure to adopt the appropriate technology, including AI, or a failure, disruption or obsolescence in the technology that we do adopt, could have adverse effects on our business."
Wenn wir die passende Technik einschließlich KI nicht einführen oder wenn die eingeführte Technik ausfällt, gestört wird oder veraltet, kann das nachteilige Auswirkungen auf unser Geschäft haben.
10-K · 2026-01-27 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-01-27 · 10-Q 2026-06-26 · 10-Q 2026-03-27 · 8-K 2026-05-07 · 8-K 2026-06-23 · 10-K 2025-01-27
Rated on July 26, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 29.8%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 3.5%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 5.9%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 16.2%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 29.6%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 1.1%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 3.8 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 11,820 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 11.6%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 5.5%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 3.7%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 4.3%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 15.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 5.8x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 7
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 26.2%
- ROCE > 15% 11.6%
- Expected return > 10% 24.8%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Arison Micky Meir | Chairman of the Board | Other | 248,015 | – | – |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arison Micky Meir | Chairman of the Board | Other | 91,028 | – | – |
The company
About the Company
Carnival Corporation Ltd. ist ein Kreuzfahrtunternehmen, das Freizeitreisen in Nordamerika, Australien, Europa und international anbietet.
- Employees
- 160,000
- Headquarters
- Miami, FL
- Address
- 3655 N.W. 87th Avenue, 33178-2428 Miami, United States
- Phone
- 305 599 2600
- Website
- carnivalcorp.com
- IPO Date
- 07/24/1987
- ISIN
- BMG2004J1036
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 06/15/1998
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 12/15/1994
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Meir Arison | Executive Chairman of the Board | 1949 |
| Joshua Ian Weinstein | CEO & Director | 1974 |
| David Bernstein | CFO & Chief Accounting Officer | 1958 |
| Enrique Miguez J.D. | General Counsel | 1965 |
| Bettina A. Deynes | Global Chief Human Resources Officer | 1973 |
| Lars Ljoen | Chief Maritime Officer | 1970 |
| Beth Roberts | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Jody Venturoni | Chief Communications Officer | – |
| Hon. E. H. Horst Rahe | Life President of AIDA Cruises | – |
| Adolfo M. Perez | Senior Vice President of Trade Sales and Marketing for Carnival Cruise Line | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/05/2026 Carnival Corp Ltd. (CCL): Regulation FD Disclosure SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.