Caledonia Mining Corporation
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow, because the core business holds up — Blanket has been producing for decades, the balance sheet is strong with $167.8 million in cash, and management explicitly affirms the going-concern basis — but a material operating question is open: whether the Bilboes project, financed with $150 million of fresh debt in a country that has already altered the group's mine ownership by law once before, comes into production on schedule by the end of 2028, while the existing mine's production costs are simultaneously rising faster than the gold price. Red would require evidence that isn't there — no going-concern qualification, no negative equity, no payment difficulties. Green is missing the country-level reliability: a state that has already altered ownership stakes by law and forces part of the proceeds into its own currency represents a structural, not merely temporary, uncertainty.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Caledonia Mining is a growing, currently profitable gold producer with a strong cash position and a dividend unchanged for more than three years — but its entire business is structurally tied to Zimbabwe: a forced sale of a third of its gold to the state, a depreciating local currency, a mine stake already cut once by law, and now a $150 million bet on a major new project. Not investment advice.
Operating substance & growth
Revenue more than doubled from $121.3 million (2021) to $267.7 million (2025), driven by a strong gold price ($3,383/oz in 2025, $4,502/oz in H1 2026). A concrete, independently vetted growth project (Bilboes, 1.75 million ounces of reserves) is financed and under construction.
Cost trajectory
AISC per ounce rose 50.7% from H1 2025 to H1 2026, reaching $2,715 — faster than the 47.8% rise in the gold price, whose sheer size has masked the effect so far. Blanket output fell 17.6% in the second quarter of 2026 due to constrained ore access.
Zimbabwe country risk
30% of the gold must be sold to the state-owned Fidelity Gold Refinery, paid in the depreciating local currency ZiG ($1.7 million in FX losses in the second quarter of 2026 alone). Caledonia's Blanket stake was already cut to 49% by law once, in 2012.
Balance sheet & liquidity
Cash of $167.8 million (net of overdrafts) as of 06/30/2026 (up from $8.2 million a year earlier), before the $150 million convertible note, with going concern explicitly affirmed in the interim report. The note increases debt, but with no near-term maturity before 2033 (per the annual report).
Communication quality
Five reviewed earnings calls show unusually candid management that names cost overruns rather than obscuring them. Counterpoint: a documented self-contradiction in the interim report over the maturity year of the company's own $150 million bond (2030 vs. 2033).
Ownership & governance structure
Executive Director Victor Gapare holds 12.66% of the shares through a family company while also running the Bilboes project his former company sold to Caledonia — fully disclosed, but it creates a tight link between personal wealth and project responsibility.
Worth Noting
Caledonia is a "Foreign Private Issuer" and reports to the SEC via Form 20-F (annual report) and Form 6-K (material events and interim reports during the year) instead of 10-K/10-Q — a routine, not a concerning, difference from US domestic filers.
Data as of: balance sheet and earnings figures come from the annual report Form 20-F for 2025 (filed 04/23/2026) and the interim report Form 6-K for the first half of 2026 (filed 08/10/2026). Price and valuation data are as of August 25/26, 2026.
The five reviewed earnings-call transcripts (Q1 2025 through Q2 2026) come from the in-house transcript database; supplemented by the last four interim MD&A reports and the Bilboes feasibility study published in November 2025.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CMCL since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 16.80 $ to 37.70 $ · Last price: 24.30 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Gold
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corporation CMCL | 0.5 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 60.2 | – | 38.9 | -22.1 |
| Newmont Goldcorp Corp NEM | 132.8 | 16.0 | 7.9 | 68.0 | 61.4 | 19.1 | 59.6 |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | 72.0 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 56.3 | 56.3 | 31.2 | 50.6 |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | 53.3 | 15.0 | 7.8 | 54.8 | 56.1 | 70.8 | 59.1 |
| Coeur Mining Inc CDE | 22.1 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 56.3 | 43.1 | 96.4 | 25.0 |
| Royal Gold Inc RGLD | 21.4 | 30.6 | 16.9 | 86.8 | 63.8 | 44.6 | 34.8 |
| SSR Mining Inc SSRM | 7.5 | 14.0 | 6.6 | 55.0 | 52.5 | 66.6 | 66.1 |
| Aura Minerals Inc. AUGO | 7.4 | 24.9 | 12.5 | 60.0 | 51.4 | 55.1 | 180.7 |
| Osisko Gold Ro OR | 6.9 | 24.7 | 18.8 | 96.9 | 77.0 | 47.5 | 1.5 |
| Median of companies shown | 21.4 | 15.6 | 7.9 | 60.0 | 56.2 | 47.5 | 50.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 62 | 16 | 9 | 0.81 | 23 | 56 | 91 |
| 2017 | 70 | 21 | 9 | 0.88 | 25 | 63 | 110 |
| 2018 | 68 | 21 | 11 | 1.02 | 18 | 70 | 126 |
| 2019 | 76 | 61 | 42 | 3.91 | 18 | 108 | 144 |
| 2020 | 100 | 41 | 21 | 1.77 | 31 | 142 | 178 |
| 2021 | 121 | 36 | 17 | 1.43 | 31 | 138 | 211 |
| 2022 | 142 | 30 | 11 | 0.88 | 43 | 141 | 235 |
| 2023 | 146 | 11 | -8 | -0.42 | 15 | 206 | 328 |
| 2024 | 183 | 44 | 18 | 0.93 | 42 | 214 | 348 |
| 2025 | 254 | 116 | 55 | 2.83 | 76 | 259 | 412 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.30 | – | 45 | 16.60 | 13.00 | 13 | 3 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.46 | 499.20 | 56 | 53.50 | 15.90 | 13 | 5 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.06 | 145.60 | 65 | 30.30 | 31.40 | 28 | 16 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.78 | 551.90 | 71 | 52.40 | 21.20 | 14 | 7 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.52 | 71.70 | 71 | 57.40 | 15.10 | 21 | 12 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.80 | 72.40 | 66 | 18.30 | 23.90 | 19 | 13 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 4 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 3.85 | 3.85 – 3.85 | 304 | 34.0% | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 5.11 | 5.02 – 5.19 | 336 | 32.6% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -3.4% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $52.3M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $469.0M |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $37.0M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 41.6% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 69.3% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft gegen den Geschäftsbericht (Form 20-F) für 2025 (eingereicht 23.04.2026) und den Zwischenbericht (Form 6-K) für das erste Halbjahr 2026 (eingereicht 10.08.2026): Die einzige KI-Erwähnung ist eine generische Risikoklausel zu Cybersicherheit und Technologiewandel im 20-F, ohne konkrete operative KI-Nutzung, KI-Umsatzquelle oder KI-getriebenes Geschäftsrisiko für die Goldproduktion in Simbabwe.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„The rapid advancement of technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence ("AI"), presents both opportunities and significant risks to our operations. AI-related challenges include compliance with emerging laws and regulations, ethical and legal issues, reputational harm from potential system failures, and risks associated with third-party vendors employing AI."
Der rasante technologische Fortschritt, insbesondere im Bereich künstliche Intelligenz („KI"), birgt sowohl Chancen als auch erhebliche Risiken für unseren Betrieb. Zu den KI-bezogenen Herausforderungen zählen die Einhaltung neu entstehender Gesetze und Vorschriften, ethische und rechtliche Fragen, Reputationsschäden durch mögliche Systemausfälle sowie Risiken im Zusammenhang mit Drittanbietern, die KI einsetzen.
20-F · 2026-04-23 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 20-F 2026-04-23 · 6-K 2026-08-10
Rated on August 26, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 21.4%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 1.4%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 15.0%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 55.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 54.0%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 3 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 68 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 32.9%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 15.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
9/10 Quality stockThe AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 17.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 15.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 24.2%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 34.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 0.0x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 82.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 21.3%
- ROCE > 15% 32.9%
- Expected return > 10% 46.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ndlovu July | Director | Buy | 21,400 | 23.03 | 492,842 |
The company
About the Company
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily operates a gold mine in Jersey. It also engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals.
- Employees
- 2,357
- Headquarters
- Saint Helier, Jersey
- Address
- 2 Mulcaster Street, JE2 3NJ Saint Helier, Jersey
- Phone
- 44 1534 679800
- Website
- caledoniamining.com
- IPO Date
- 06/29/2017
- ISIN
- JE00BF0XVB15
- Stock Split
- 1:5 on 06/27/2017
- Stock Split
- 1:10 on 04/12/2013
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John Mark Learmonth | CEO & Non-Independent Director | 1964 |
| Ross Ian Jerrard | Chief Financial Officer | 1975 |
| Adam Chester | Head of Risk & Compliance and General Counsel | – |
| Victor Robinson Gapare | Non-Independent Executive Director | – |
| Leonet Steyn | Chief Information Officer | – |
| Camilla Horsfall | VP of Group Communications & VP of Investor Relations | – |
| Maurice John Mason | Vice President of Corporate Development | – |
| Cyndrella Masimbe | Group Head of Human Resources | – |
| Paul Matthews | Vice President of Exploration | – |
| Colleen Ann Parkins BSc (UCT), BSc(Hons)UCT, MSc (Zoology) | Head of ESG | 1968 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.