BigBearai Holdings Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
We explicitly do not see a substance risk that would justify a red rating: there is no going-concern warning, equity is clearly positive at $770.3 million, long-term debt no longer exists, and $409.8 million of cash and investments covers the current operating cash outflow for roughly five years. The earlier restatement and material weakness have been remediated and confirmed by the auditor. But one material operating question is open, and it is a large one: the company has posted operating losses in every year since inception, revenue fell 19.3 percent in 2025 and now sits below the 2022 level, guidance for 2026 stays below the 2024 figure at the midpoint, and the self-defined adjusted EBITDA got worse in the best quarter in years. On top of that, dilution of 277 percent since the end of 2022 has pushed revenue per share from $1.22 to $0.29. The turnaround has begun and is visible in the gross margin, but it is proven neither in the revenue line nor in earnings — hence yellow and not green. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
BigBear.ai is the rare case where the AI story is true and the stock story is still a different one: Ask Sage, with clearances up to Top Secret, is a genuine lead, and the balance sheet, holding $409.8 million of cash and investments, is the strongest in company history. Against that stand revenue that fell 19.3 percent in 2025 and now sits below the 2022 level, an operating loss in every year since inception, dependence on the U.S. government of roughly 86 to 90 percent — and a share count up 277 percent since the end of 2022, with a program for 100 million more shares on top. Buying here does not buy today's numbers; it buys the bet that the Ask Sage acquisition turns into a high-margin platform business before your slice of it shrinks further. Not investment advice.
Product and market access
Per the 10-K for 2025, Ask Sage was the first generative AI platform of its kind to receive FedRAMP authorization, accredited up to IL5, IL6 and Top Secret, and used by more than 16,000 government teams as of January 2026. Most of the 579 employees (12/31/2025) hold an active security clearance — access competitors cannot buy quickly.
Balance sheet and financial strength
As of June 30, 2026 the books show $409.8 million of cash and investments, $770.3 million of equity and no long-term debt — after negative equity of $3.7 million on December 31, 2024. The $40.2 million operating cash outflow of the first half of 2026 would be funded from that for roughly five years.
Growth and earnings power
Revenue fell 19.3 percent in 2025 to $127.672 million, below the 2022 figure of $155.011 million; company guidance for 2026 of $135 million to $165 million (as of 07/30/2026) sits below 2024 at the midpoint. Per the 2025 10-K there have been operating losses in every year since inception, and adjusted EBITDA worsened from $(8.5) million to $(11.6) million in the second quarter of 2026 despite higher revenue.
Dilution
Share count rose from 127,022,363 (12/31/2022) to 479,494,493 (06/30/2026), up 277 percent, cutting revenue per share from roughly $1.22 to $0.29. On July 31, 2026, one day after the quarterly report, a program for up to 100 million more shares was added — on an authorized capital that had already been doubled to 1.0 billion shares.
Customer concentration
86 percent of second-quarter 2026 revenue ($31.565 million of $36.749 million) came from the U.S. government, substantially all revenue is generated in the United States, and four individual customers each exceeded 10 percent. Per the 2025 10-K every contract carries a termination-for-convenience clause; the 2025 revenue decline arose exactly that way.
Accounting quality and track record
Goodwill of $238.570 million (06/30/2026, 28 percent of total assets) has, per the 2025 10-K, no remaining gap between fair value and carrying value — at a company that has already taken three impairments ($53.5 million, $85.0 million and $70.6 million). The restatement and material weakness of March 18, 2025 have been remediated per the 2025 10-K, with a first-time auditor attestation.
Worth Noting
BBAI reached our research list through the SEC filing feed: the quarterly report and an earnings release touting 13 percent growth appeared on July 30, 2026, followed on July 31, 2026 by a prospectus supplement for up to 100 million new shares.
Every figure in this analysis comes from primary SEC documents (10-K for 2024 and 2025, 10-Q as of 06/30/2026, Forms 8-K of 03/18/2025, 07/30/2026, 07/31/2026 and 08/17/2026, 424B5 of 07/31/2026). The $2.83 price anchor is the closing price of July 30, 2026 as recorded in the prospectus supplement, deliberately not a daily quote.
Possible confusion: BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. was named GigCapital4, Inc. until December 7, 2021 and should not be confused with similarly named consumer or leisure brands. Alongside the common stock, warrants trade on the NYSE under BBAI.WS with an exercise price of $11.50.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of September 5, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at BBAI since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 2.60 $ to 8.90 $ · Last price: 2.80 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Information Technology Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BigBearai Holdings Inc BBAI | 1.4 | – | -3.3 | 27.9 | -66.9 | -19.3 | -52.8 |
| International Business Machines IBM | 212.8 | 21.3 | 16.3 | 58.1 | 13.8 | 7.6 | -5.9 |
| Accenture plc ACN | 117.9 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 32.0 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -18.5 |
| Infosys Ltd INFY | 45.0 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 29.7 | 21.2 | 4.6 | -32.7 |
| Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH | 29.3 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 33.4 | 15.6 | 7.0 | -9.6 |
| CDW Corp CDW | 19.1 | 17.3 | 12.4 | 21.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | -9.0 |
| Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc BR | 19.0 | 17.6 | 12.1 | 31.8 | 18.4 | 5.9 | -31.4 |
| Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FIS | 18.8 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 35.8 | 16.4 | 5.4 | -43.7 |
| Wipro Limited WIT | 16.6 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 29.0 | 15.7 | 4.0 | -37.3 |
| Median of companies shown | 19.1 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 31.8 | 15.7 | 5.9 | -31.4 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 49 | 4 | 4 | 0.04 | 2 | – | – |
| 2019 | 74 | 6 | 6 | 0.06 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| 2020 | 91 | -5 | -3 | -0.02 | 1 | 100 | 218 |
| 2021 | 146 | -78 | -124 | -1.15 | -20 | 122 | 383 |
| 2022 | 155 | -111 | -111 | -0.87 | -49 | -38 | 195 |
| 2023 | 155 | -39 | -71 | -0.47 | -18 | -67 | 200 |
| 2024 | 158 | -133 | -296 | -1.27 | -38 | -4 | 344 |
| 2025 | 128 | -83 | -294 | -0.82 | -42 | 612 | 895 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.58 | – | 44 | 8.00 | -334.20 | -15 | -15 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.25 | – | 35 | 4.90 | -178.30 | -7 | -8 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.71 | – | 33 | -18.40 | -704.00 | -4 | -5 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.01 | – | 33 | -20.10 | 7.60 | -10 | -11 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.00 | – | 27 | -37.70 | -21.40 | -22 | -22 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.01 | – | 34 | -0.90 | -164.80 | -18 | -18 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.05 | 93.00 | 37 | 12.90 | -70.00 | -22 | -23 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.27 | -0.28 – -0.26 | 145 | – | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.16 | -0.17 – -0.15 | 161 | – | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available.
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -6.3%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 11.3%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 41.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -55.6%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 22.3%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 27.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 63 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 562 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -11.8%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 14.5%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 12.3%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 12.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 2
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -127.1%
- ROCE > 15% -11.8%
- Expected return > 10% 8.5%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gainey Sean Alexander | Director | Other | 32,776 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- Employees
- 579
- Headquarters
- McLean, VA
- Address
- 7950 Jones Branch Drive, 22102 McLean, United States
- Phone
- 410 312 0885
- Website
- bigbear.ai
- IPO Date
- 04/05/2021
- ISIN
- US08975B1098
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin McAleenan | CEO & Director | 1972 |
| Sean R. Ricker | CFO & Principal Accounting Officer | 1988 |
| Carolyn Blankenship | General Counsel & Secretary | 1963 |
| Carl Napoletano | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Josephine F. Bjornson | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1976 |
| Robert Wedertz | Senior Vice President of Growth | – |
| Alex Thompson | Chief Corporate Affairs Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/15/2026 BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
- 08/17/2026 BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/31/2026 BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/30/2026 BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.