Abivax S.A. (ABVX)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Whoever buys today is no longer betting that obefazimod works — that is documented. They are betting on a timetable: that the approval filing goes in as planned late in the fourth quarter of 2026, that the FDA accepts it without extra requirements, that payers accept a price capable of carrying a valuation in the ten-billion-dollar range, and that 69 employees can build a commercial organization without another large capital raise. Whoever waits checks three lines in every release: is the NDA date holding (planned for late in the fourth quarter of 2026)? How large is the cash burn per quarter (€50.5 million most recently)? And how many shares are there by now (roughly 86.1 million most recently)? The all-or-nothing risk of a single drug candidate is the dominant risk here and the reason for caution. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
The trial data at Abivax are about as good as trial data get: in June 2026, 51.3 percent of patients on obefazimod were in clinical remission after 44 weeks, against 10.4 percent on placebo, p below 0.0001. The same filings with the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC, carry the other half of the story: no product revenue at all, a net loss of €336.1 million in 2025, €161.1 million of cash burned, and 96.5 percent of research spending inside a single molecule. The bill is paid in stock — 62.9 million shares at the end of 2023, roughly 86.1 million after the offering of June 30, 2026. In that offering prospectus Abivax does the arithmetic itself: of the $125.00 issue price, $110.78 is dilution. London hedge fund Helikon Investments opened a brand-new position in the first quarter of 2026. Not investment advice — just the sum of how much of a share price is evidence and how much is an advance on an approval nobody has even applied for yet.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 23, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ABVX since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 124.90 $ — 73% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 23.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht 20-F für 2025 (eingereicht 23.03.2026), den 20-F für 2024 (24.03.2025), die Prospektergänzung 424B5 vom 02.07.2026 sowie die vier jüngsten 6-K-Zwischenmeldungen (23.03.2026 Jahreszahlen 2025, 22.05.2026 Q1-2026-Zwischenbericht, 02.06.2026 Phase-3-Erhaltungsdaten, 29.06.2026 Erhaltungsteil 2): Abivax S.A. ist ein klinisches Biotechnologieunternehmen ohne Produktumsatz; der gesamte Geschäftsbetrieb ist auf den Wirkstoff obefazimod (miR-124-Verstärker, Colitis ulcerosa und Morbus Crohn) ausgerichtet. Der Begriff „artificial intelligence“ kommt im 20-F für 2025 genau einmal vor — in einem Datenschutz-Risikofaktor mit dem Hinweis, dass Beschäftigte und Dienstleister KI (einschließlich generativer KI) für ihre Arbeit einsetzen und daraus Datenschutz- und Compliance-Risiken entstehen können. Im 20-F für 2024 fehlt der Begriff ganz; dort steht KI nur in zwei Risikofloskeln (durch KI verstärkte Cyberangriffe, mögliche Datenabflüsse durch generative KI bei Personal und Dienstleistern). In der 424B5 taucht KI ausschließlich in der Aufzählung „kritischer Technologien“ der französischen Investitionskontrolle auf, ohne Bezug zum eigenen Geschäft. Es gibt keine KI-Produkte oder -Dienste als Umsatzquelle (nicht „verkauft“), keinen im Filing belegten materiellen operativen KI-Einsatz in Forschung, Studienbetrieb oder Herstellung (die Formulierung „our employees and personnel use artificial intelligence … to perform their work“ steht ohne Anwendungsfall, Umfang oder Effizienzaussage in einem Datenschutzabschnitt und trägt „nutzt“ nicht), und die Risikofloskeln sind kein konkreter, geschäftsmodellspezifischer Bedroht-Beleg. In den ausgewerteten 6-K (Studienergebnisse, Zwischenabschluss, Emission) kommt KI überhaupt nicht vor. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog eindeutig „neutral“ (dokumentierter Negativ-Befund).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 20-F 2026-03-23 · 20-F 2025-03-24 · 6-K 2026-05-22 · 6-K 2026-06-02 · 6-K 2026-06-29 · 6-K 2026-03-23 · 424B5 2026-07-02
Rated on July 23, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 32.8% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 7
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate (€) | EPS Range (€) | Revenue Estimate (€M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -3.58 | -4.24 – -2.50 | 75 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | -3.15 | -5.13 – -1.87 | 83 | 12.2% | 6 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -1.08 €
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales (€M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF (€M) | FCF (€M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q1 | -0.79 | – | 0 | – | – | -35 | -35 |
| 2024: Q2 | -1.01 | -40.30 | 3 | 50.90 | -1,142.70 | -43 | -43 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.81 | – | 7 | 218.10 | -707.80 | -69 | -69 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.95 | -20.20 | 0 | – | – | -33 | -33 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.89 | 11.90 | 2 | -40.60 | -2,400.30 | -67 | -67 |
| 2025: Q3 | -2.47 | -243.10 | 0 | – | – | -71 | -71 |
| 2025: Q4 | -1.18 | -44.90 | -2 | -127.30 | – | -71 | -71 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.71 | 25.30 | 0 | – | – | -51 | -51 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (€M) | EBIT (€M) | Net Income (€M) | EPS (€) | Operating Cash Flow (€M) | Equity (€M) | Total Assets (€M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | -18 | -14 | -1.47 | -16 | 57 | 61 |
| 2017 | 0 | -14 | -11 | -1.13 | -8 | 48 | 54 |
| 2018 | 0 | -19 | -16 | -1.55 | -15 | 35 | 54 |
| 2019 | 0 | -33 | -31 | -2.51 | -27 | 19 | 52 |
| 2020 | 0 | -38 | -38 | -2.62 | -30 | 18 | 71 |
| 2021 | 0 | -41 | -42 | -2.75 | -46 | 26 | 109 |
| 2022 | 5 | -65 | -61 | -3.18 | -54 | 7 | 76 |
| 2023 | 5 | -127 | -148 | -3.43 | -100 | 196 | 327 |
| 2024 | 11 | -173 | -176 | -2.80 | -154 | 41 | 205 |
| 2025 | 0 | -246 | -336 | -4.83 | -156 | 455 | 584 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The Phase 3 ABTECT maintenance trial cleared its primary endpoint by a wide margin on June 1, 2026: 51.3 percent clinical remission at week 44 on 50 mg and 50.8 percent on 25 mg, against 10.4 percent on placebo (p<0.0001), with all key secondary endpoints met — in a patient group where half had already failed advanced therapies. The induction data of July 2025 showed 20.8 percent against 4.4 percent after eight weeks.
96.5 percent of 2025 research spending (€171.6 million of €177.8 million) went into obefazimod, and the annual report 20-F for 2025 states that the ability to generate revenue depends "entirely" on its development and approval in the near future. The second indication, Crohn's disease, only delivers data in mid-2027 — a setback in the approval process would have no cushion.
€491.6 million of liquidity as of March 31, 2026, roughly €1.1 billion pro forma after the offering of June 30, 2026 (net proceeds $759.8 million), with no convertible notes and no secured loans left. Against that stands €161.1 million of cash used in operations in 2025 and already €50.5 million in the first quarter of 2026; the runway statement into the fourth quarter of 2027 holds explicitly only if trial results stay positive.
The share count rose from 62,928,818 (December 31, 2023) to roughly 86.1 million after the offering of June 30, 2026, up 37 percent. The prospectus puts the immediate dilution at $110.78 per ADS at a $125.00 issue price — leaving $14.22 of pro forma net tangible book value. An unused at-the-market program of $150.0 million stands ready.
The royalty certificates sold in 2022 for €2,931 thousand on 2 percent of all future obefazimod sales were bought back for $90 million in May 2026 and cancelled — right for the future, expensive for the second quarter of 2026 (a charge of about €43.0 million). In 2025, share-price-driven effects cost roughly €93 million, including €27.3 million of employer contributions on free share awards.
The material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting first reported in the listing prospectus and in the report for 2023 still existed as of December 31, 2025 per the 20-F — four areas from risk assessment to monitoring, with no stated timeline for remediation. They have not led to a misstatement so far, and as an emerging growth company Abivax does not yet need an auditor attestation on internal controls.
Abivax is the p-value trap in its purest form: the medical question is answered about as well as it can be answered before an approval — 51.3 percent clinical remission after 44 weeks against 10.4 percent on placebo, p<0.0001, all key secondary endpoints met. The commercial questions are all still open: no product revenue, a €336.1 million net loss in 2025, €161.1 million of cash burned, 96.5 percent of research inside a single molecule, 69 employees to carry an approval filing and a market launch. The road there is paid for in stock: 37 percent more shares since the end of 2023, and per the company's own prospectus $110.78 of a $125.00 issue price is pure expectation. Not investment advice.
- Abivax did not reach our research list through a momentum or value screen but through the Form 13F-HR of Helikon Investments Ltd for the quarter ended March 31, 2026: 1,013,324 shares worth $112,833,627, a brand-new position (zero shares in each of the prior quarters) inside a portfolio otherwise shaped by miners and Argentine names. A 13F shows only U.S.-listed long positions, appears with a 35 to 45 day delay and contains neither short sales nor derivatives nor the Euronext holdings — a rearview mirror, not a roadmap.
- Classic metrics do not work at Abivax: there is no price-to-earnings and no price-to-sales ratio, the Piotroski F-Score of 4 of 9 mostly measures noise at a company with no revenue, and the Altman Z-Score, net current asset value and cash balance are deliberately not shown because the books are kept in euros while the stock trades in U.S. dollars. What carries meaning is liquidity, cash burn, trial status and share count.
- Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: the only clean anchor is the company's own issue price of $125.00 per ADS on June 30, 2026 (market value in the order of $10.8 billion at roughly 86.1 million shares); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Watch list: the half-year 2026 report on September 21, 2026 with the charge from the royalty buyback, the planned NDA submission late in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Phase 2b results in Crohn's disease in mid-2027, and the next Form 13F-HR (quarter ended June 30, 2026, published in mid-August 2026).
About the Company
ABIVAX Société Anonyme, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics that harness the body's natural regulatory mechanisms to stabilize the immune response in patients with chronic inflammatory diseases. Its lead drug candidate includes obefazimod, which is in Phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of moderately to severely active UC, as well as Phase 2b clinical trials for Crohn's disease. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
| Employees | 80 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Paris, France |
| Address | 7-11 Boulevard Haussmann, 75009 Paris, France |
| Phone | 33 1 53 83 09 63 |
| Website | abivax.com |
| IPO Date | 20. Oct 2023 |
| ISIN | US00370M1036 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Marc M. P. de Garidel M.B.A. | CEO & Director | 1958 |
| Didier Blondel | EVP, CFO & Board Secretary | 1964 |
| Patrick Malloy | Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations | – |
| Ida Hatoum | Chief People & Compliance Officer | 1975 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.