Verbio stock: EUR 192 million in EBITDA — and the credit does not belong to management

There is a thinking error investors make with remarkable reliability, and it has no pretty name: the credit reflex. When profits rise, we praise management. When profits fall, we blame management. Both feel reasonable — and for some companies both are simply wrong. VERBIO SE (Xetra: VBK) is one of those companies. In fiscal 2024/2025 it posted a net loss of EUR 137.9 million. One year later the same company, with the same plants and the same board, reports preliminary EBITDA of roughly EUR 192 million. In between there was no change of strategy, no acquisition, no new product. In between there is a price set by the state.

This analysis reads what Verbio itself reported — the Annual Report 2024/2025, the quarterly statement for the period ended March 31, 2026, and the three ad-hoc releases of March 25, May 27 and August 3, 2026. It separates what the company achieved from what fell into its lap. And it points to four places in Verbio's own reports where the story gets uncomfortable. What you do with that is your call.

What Verbio does — and why a law runs the till

Verbio is based in Zörbig, Saxony-Anhalt, has been listed since October 2006, and employed 1,458 people at June 30, 2025 (1,394 at March 31, 2026). It is one of Europe's largest independent producers of biofuels. Three products leave the plants: biodiesel from rapeseed and used cooking oils, bioethanol from grain, and biomethane from residues such as straw. Reporting runs through two segments plus a residual line: Biodiesel, Bioethanol/Biomethane and Other.

The decisive lever, however, does not sit in the fuel. It sits in a certificate attached to it: the German greenhouse gas reduction quota, or GHG quota. Think of it as a legally mandated diet for the filling station. Lawmakers force the mineral oil industry to cut the carbon footprint of the fuel it sells, year after year. Companies that cannot manage it on their own buy someone else's savings — as a tradable certificate. Verbio helps produce those savings and sells them.

The price of those certificates is not an ordinary product price. It emerges from regulation, enforcement and import volumes. When cheap — and partly fraud-tainted — volumes from abroad flood the market, the quota price falls, and Verbio's margin falls with it. When regulation tightens, it rises. That is why Verbio's result can swing by more than EUR 300 million between two fiscal years without anything changing inside the plants. Keep this in mind for the rest of this analysis: Verbio's most important price is not on Verbio's price list.

One more point up front, because it shapes the entire evidence chain: there is no filing from Verbio with the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC. The company is listed in the Prime Standard of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange; the U.S. ticker VBVBF is merely an over-the-counter secondary listing with no reporting duty of its own. Every figure in this analysis therefore carries the label "source: fundamental data and VERBIO SE reports" rather than "SEC filings (10-K/10-Q)". We had the same constellation most recently at RENK, another German issuer whose own reports are the only usable primary source.

How the stock landed on our desk

Through an ad-hoc release containing a rare combination of words: exceeds forecast. On August 3, 2026 Verbio reported preliminary full-year EBITDA of roughly EUR 192 million — against guidance of EUR 160 to 180 million that was itself only ten weeks old. It was the third upgrade inside a single fiscal year.

What the share price did with it is the interesting part. The stock closed at EUR 27.40 on August 3, 2026 and at EUR 29.18 the following day, a gain of roughly 6.5 percent. On August 12, 2026 it stood at EUR 30.22. For context: the lowest close of the preceding twelve months was EUR 9.90 on September 10, 2025, the highest EUR 45.80 on March 31, 2026. In other words, the best operating news of the year met a stock already trading a third below its yearly high — after having more than quadrupled before that.

A stock that quadruples, gives back a third and then barely reacts to a record announcement is exactly the kind of contradiction this section exists for. It can be resolved — you only need to know where the profit comes from.

The numbers over the years — credit where it is due

First the part that impresses without qualification: Verbio survived the crash under its own steam, without an emergency capital raise and without a balance sheet break. The fiscal year ends on June 30, so "2024/2025" covers essentially the second half of calendar 2024 and the first half of 2025.

In fiscal 2024/2025 group revenue came to EUR 1,579.8 million (prior year EUR 1,658.0 million). Below that line, earnings collapsed. EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, in other words what the running business leaves behind — fell from EUR 121.6 million to EUR 14.2 million. Operating income (EBIT) swung from plus EUR 69.6 million to minus EUR 118.2 million, and the bottom line showed minus EUR 137.9 million with a loss per share of EUR 2.17. The dividend, 20 cents per share for six consecutive years, was suspended.

Then came the counter-move. After nine months of fiscal 2025/2026 (July 1, 2025 through March 31, 2026), revenue stood at EUR 1,340.7 million, up 17 percent; EBITDA at EUR 105.7 million against EUR 22.4 million a year earlier; and the net result at plus EUR 22.3 million after minus EUR 40.5 million. The third quarter alone contributed EUR 60.2 million of EBITDA. For the full year, Verbio reported preliminary EBITDA of roughly EUR 192 million on August 3, 2026.

The balance sheet recovered too, and that deserves fair credit. Net financial debt stood at EUR 164.0 million at June 30, 2025, fell to EUR 126.8 million by March 31, 2026, and amounted to roughly EUR 92 million at June 30, 2026 according to the company — against equity of EUR 768.8 million and an equity ratio of 59.3 percent at March 31, 2026. Operating cash flow in the first nine months was EUR 96.4 million. The quarterly statement explicitly states that no risks are identifiable that could threaten the group's ability to continue as a going concern. Anyone looking for a balance sheet story at Verbio will not find one.

Production, meanwhile, ran better than ever: the first nine months of 2025/2026 produced 1,040 gigawatt hours of biomethane against 865 gigawatt hours a year earlier — a record, driven by the ramp-up of the plant in Nevada, Iowa.

What the reports actually say — the uncomfortable truths

Uncomfortable truth No. 1: the turnaround comes from one segment — and inside it, from certificate trading

Anyone crediting the turnaround to management has to explain where it originated. The segment figures in the quarterly statement make that easy. In the core Biodiesel business, nine-month EBITDA actually declined slightly, from EUR 68.8 million to EUR 65.2 million. In the Bioethanol/Biomethane segment it swung from minus EUR 50.9 million to plus EUR 30.5 million. The residual Other line rose from EUR 4.5 million to EUR 10.0 million.

Verbio names the cause itself, without varnish: the third-quarter increase was "primarily due to the contribution to earnings from the GHG quota business". And the subsequent-events section explains why the market turned at all:

"On May 8, the implementation of the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) was passed by the upper house of the German parliament. This resolution addresses the systemic misguided incentives that have led to significant market distortions in the biofuels market in recent years, as well as to a loss of confidence in the GHG quota system."

— VERBIO SE, quarterly statement for the period ended March 31, 2026, subsequent-events report

In plain language: lawmakers repaired what lawmakers had broken. That is good news for Verbio — but it was written in Berlin and Brussels, not in Zörbig. Buying the stock means buying, to a substantial degree, a bet that this policy holds.

Uncomfortable truth No. 2: part of the guidance jump is a booking, not cash

On May 27, 2026 Verbio raised EBITDA guidance from "the upper end of the EUR 100 to 140 million range" to EUR 160 to 180 million. The same release contains a sentence that is easy to skip:

"In addition, following a detailed review, the Management Board expects a reversal of inventory write-downs of less than EUR 20 million related to GHG quotas which, due to a political decision, can only be used in the 2027 quota year."

— VERBIO SE, ad-hoc release of May 27, 2026

A write-up is the mirror image of a write-down: inventory that was once marked down for prudence is marked back up because it turns out to be worth more. That raises reported profit without a single euro entering the building. Measured against preliminary full-year EBITDA of EUR 192 million, this is worth up to roughly one tenth of the result. Verbio itself notes that the write-up is limited to original production cost — cleanly booked, fully compliant. It is still not a reason to relax: the value of these certificates is realized in the 2027 quota year at the earliest, and nobody knows today whether the price will hold.

Uncomfortable truth No. 3: a quarter in free float — and the biggest grain supplier is family

Verbio looks like an ordinary small cap but is, in corporate terms, a family business wearing a listing. The Annual Report 2024/2025 puts the free float at 27.90 percent. Management board members Claus and Bernd Sauter hold a combined 34.79 percent of outstanding shares through their own vehicles. And a pooling agreement binds considerably more:

"As at the June 30, 2025 balance sheet date the arrangements under the pool voting agreement bind the votes of 67.12 percent of the total voting capital."

— VERBIO SE, Annual Report 2024/2025, takeover-related disclosures

Roughly two thirds of the votes are therefore cast as one block. For a minority shareholder that means two things: you effectively do not vote at the annual general meeting, and a takeover against the family's wishes is practically impossible. That is not automatically bad — family owners often think in longer horizons than quarterly managers. It is simply something to know before buying.

There is also a number in the notes that rarely gets quoted. Among the related-party disclosures sits the grain purchased from Farma Redlo Sp. z o.o.: EUR 93.3 million in fiscal 2024/2025 after EUR 63.0 million the year before — up roughly 48 percent. That is just under 6 percent of group revenue. Grain is the single most important input of the bioethanol business, and therefore a direct margin lever. That a supplier of this size is close to the owner circle is disclosed and thus properly handled — but it deserves a second look the next time the annual report discusses raw material costs.

Uncomfortable truth No. 4: the U.S. plant cost EUR 65.6 million — and is not finished

A good part of the loss year 2024/2025 was self-inflicted. Within depreciation and amortization of EUR 132.4 million sits an unscheduled impairment of EUR 65.6 million on the assets of the straw biomethane plant in Nevada, Iowa. Technical quality problems and repair costs came on top. Alongside the fraud cases involving misdeclared biodiesel imports, the annual report explicitly names technical quality problems at the U.S. plant as a reason for the weak result.

The plant is now ramping up — the biomethane production record of the first nine months of 2025/2026 rests largely on it. But proof that the U.S. investment earns its cost of capital is still outstanding. And one more thing belongs in an honest account: in the loss-making year 2024/2025, management board remuneration rose from EUR 5.759 million to EUR 6.582 million, with the variable component climbing from EUR 2.127 million to EUR 2.924 million — in the same year the dividend was cancelled. On the dividend itself, the board wrote:

"This exceptional departure from our dividend policy reflects the unusual circumstances. We maintain our target of making reliable dividend payments, and aim to return to at least the usual level in the medium term."

— VERBIO SE, Annual Report 2024/2025, letter to shareholders

Where things stand on August 12, 2026 — the guidance staircase

To understand Verbio, look at how guidance moved within this single fiscal year. It is a lesson in how little this business can be planned:

• September 25, 2025 (with the annual report): EBITDA "in the high double-digit millions", plus a moderate reduction in net debt.
• March 25, 2026 (ad-hoc): raised to EUR 100 to 140 million, with net financial debt of around EUR 140 million expected at year end.
• May 2026 (quarterly statement): Verbio expects the upper end of that range.
• May 27, 2026 (ad-hoc): raised to EUR 160 to 180 million.
• August 3, 2026 (ad-hoc): preliminary figure of roughly EUR 192 million — above the company's own range.

The final release reads as follows:

"Based on preliminary financial figures that have not yet been audited by the independent auditor, the Management Board expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the financial year 2025/2026 to amount to approximately EUR 192 million. […] This positive development is primarily attributable to the improved CO₂ efficiency of Verbio's biofuels and higher-than-expected selling prices."

— VERBIO SE, ad-hoc release of August 3, 2026

Note the reasoning: improved carbon efficiency and higher selling prices. The first is genuine operating work — the better a litre's climate balance, the more quota it carries. The second is the market. The complete audited numbers arrive with the annual report on September 24, 2026; until then, revenue, net result and the dividend proposal for 2025/2026 are unknown.

Valuation — the order of magnitude

At a closing price of EUR 30.22 (Xetra, August 12, 2026) and 63,715,479 shares outstanding, Verbio is worth roughly EUR 1.93 billion. Adding net financial debt of about EUR 92 million gives an enterprise value of some EUR 2.02 billion. Measured against preliminary full-year EBITDA of EUR 192 million, that is a multiple of roughly 10.5.

Against fiscal 2024/2025 revenue of EUR 1,579.8 million, the price-to-sales ratio works out at about 1.2. A price-to-earnings ratio for 2025/2026 cannot be calculated honestly yet — the net result is not published until September 24, 2026. Book value per share stood at roughly EUR 12.07 at March 31, 2026, so the stock trades at about two and a half times reported equity.

The honest reading of these numbers: a multiple of 10.5 times EBITDA is neither cheap nor expensive for an industrial producer — if the EBITDA is repeatable. That is precisely the open question at Verbio. On the EUR 14.2 million of EBITDA reported in 2024/2025, the same multiple would exceed 140. Any ratio here is a snapshot of a cycle whose beat is set by lawmakers. For comparison, look at the U.S. biodiesel producer FutureFuel, whose earnings hang on the American version of the same incentive logic — the same dependency, a different capital city.

Opportunities and risks at a glance

Opportunities

• The RED III implementation of May 8, 2026 removes, by Verbio's own account, exactly the misguided incentives that had wrecked the quota market — a more stable price environment would be the basis for repeatable earnings.
• The balance sheet is back in order: net financial debt of roughly EUR 92 million at June 30, 2026 against EBITDA of EUR 192 million, and an equity ratio of 59.3 percent at March 31, 2026.
• The U.S. business is ramping up after the impairment and carried the biomethane production record of the first nine months of 2025/2026 (1,040 gigawatt hours versus 865).
• The biodiesel core stayed profitable even through the disaster year (EUR 68.8 million of EBITDA in the first nine months of 2024/2025) — there is solid ground beneath the cycle.
• Dividend policy has not been abandoned, only suspended; the board explicitly names a return to reliable payments in the medium term.

Risks

• The earnings lever sits outside the company: if the GHG quota price falls again, 2024/2025 repeats itself — same plants, same management, different sign.
• Up to roughly one tenth of preliminary full-year EBITDA comes from a write-up on inventory usable only in the 2027 quota year — book profit, not cash.
• Raw material prices for grain, rapeseed and used oils fluctuate independently and squeeze the margin from the cost side.
• Geopolitics: the quarterly statement explicitly names the Middle East conflict ongoing since late February 2026 as a risk to the relationship between input and product prices and to energy costs.
• Free float is 27.90 percent and 67.12 percent of votes are pooled — minority shareholders have no practical influence, and the stock is correspondingly thin.
• The 2022 authorized capital lets the board issue new shares with a nominal value of EUR 31,059,969 until February 3, 2027 — arithmetically almost half of today's share capital.

A human conclusion

Back to the credit reflex from the opening. It is tempting to read Verbio as a hero story: company crashes, company fights back, company delivers a record. The numbers support the first and third parts — the middle one only partly. The EUR 83.3 million swing in nine-month earnings sits almost entirely in one segment, and inside it in trading certificates whose price is decided in Berlin and Brussels. The biodiesel core actually slipped a little over the same period.

That does not make Verbio a bad company. On the contrary: the balance sheet is solid, the plants are producing record volumes, and management came through a brutal cycle without an emergency equity raise. It merely makes Verbio a company whose profit cannot be forecast from inside the company. Buying this stock means buying a well-run production base plus a bet on regulation. If you only want the production base, you are in the wrong place.

The most honest sentence in this analysis is therefore a question mark: nobody — Verbio included — can tell you today whether fiscal 2026/2027 will look more like 2024/2025 or more like 2025/2026. The next reliable data point is the audited annual report on September 24, 2026, with guidance for the current year. What you do until then is your decision. And that is exactly as it should be.

Sources

• VERBIO SE, Annual Report 2024/2025 (fiscal year ended June 30, 2025) — key figures, group management report, takeover-related disclosures, notes on related parties
• VERBIO SE, quarterly statement for the period ended March 31, 2026 — group and segment key figures, business report, forecast report, subsequent events
• VERBIO SE, ad-hoc release of March 25, 2026 — EBITDA guidance raised to EUR 100-140 million
• VERBIO SE, ad-hoc release of May 27, 2026 — raise to EUR 160-180 million, expected reversal of inventory write-downs on GHG quotas
• VERBIO SE, ad-hoc release of August 3, 2026 — preliminary EBITDA of roughly EUR 192 million, net debt of roughly EUR 92 million
• Price, market capitalisation and range figures: fundamental data, Xetra closing prices through August 12, 2026

Journalistic analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Shares can lose their entire value. All figures come from the original documents linked above and are stated with their respective reporting dates. The author holds no position in the stock discussed at the time of publication.