Deutsche Telekom: €82.5 Billion for the U.S. Stake — and €45 Billion for Everything Else
On November 4, 2026, Telekom’s stake in T-Mobile US was worth about €82.5 billion on the stock market — almost two thirds of the market value of all of Telekom. Using the nine-month report of November 5, 2026, we work out what actually reaches you: two profit figures — reported down 8.0, adjusted up 10.2 percent — and a third of the profit that belongs to outside shareholders.
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Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.
Two anchors in the portfolio: 1996 and August 2026
Few stocks carry more emotion in German portfolios than this one. In 1996 the “T-Aktie” came to market as a “people’s share”; four years later millions of first-time investors had learned their first lesson in losses. Those who were there still measure Telekom by an entry price from a generation ago — an anchor, not a yardstick.
Since this summer there is a second anchor. On August 6, 2026, the day of the half-year report, the stock closed at €29.15; on November 4, 2026, at €26.76. Anyone who bought in August now measures Telekom against that price.
Both anchors hide the same question: what do you, as a shareholder, actually own? The answer is in the nine-month report of November 5, 2026 — in two profit figures that tell two different stories about the same period, and in a single holding that arithmetically carries almost two thirds of the market value. We read both, calmly, with the original report open next to us.
What Deutsche Telekom actually does
Deutsche Telekom AG runs networks and sells access to them. That is the core. It lays fiber, puts up cell towers, sells mobile and fixed-line contracts, plus TV, cloud services and IT projects for businesses.
It is organized into five operating segments: Germany, United States, Europe, Systems Solutions (T-Systems) and Group Development. That sounds balanced. It is not. In the first nine months of 2026, group revenue of €90,906 million broke down like this:
- United States: €59,782 million — about 66 percent
- Germany: €19,444 million — about 21 percent
- Europe: €9,565 million — about 10.5 percent
- Systems Solutions: €3,182 million — about 3.5 percent
- Headquarters and Group Development: the small remainder, less €2,644 million of intersegment revenue
The group says so itself: international revenue made up 78.0 percent of the total in the first nine months of 2026. Telekom is German mainly by name, by its Bonn headquarters and by its largest shareholder — the German federal government together with state development bank KfW, holding 28.6 percent as of September 30, 2026.
The U.S. business runs through T-Mobile US, Inc., which is separately listed on Nasdaq. In Germany, the 5G network covered about 99 percent of the population as of September 30, 2026, and 14.4 million households and businesses could order a fiber connection. In Europe, 5G coverage averaged 95.4 percent and 12.0 million households had fiber access.
A field you might not expect from a network operator got its own number in October 2026: artificial intelligence. At its AI Investor Day on October 5, 2026, Telekom guided to around €250 million of AI-related revenue from businesses outside the United States for 2026, rising to around €800 million by 2030. Behind that are, among other things, the industrial AI cloud launched with Nvidia in February 2026, a major federal contract awarded to T-Systems and SAP for a sovereign AI platform, and the security service “Sovereign Cortex with T Security” launched with Palo Alto Networks. Measured against more than €90 billion of nine-month revenue, it is still a small seedling.
How the stock landed on our desk
Not through a scanner, but through conversation. On August 5, 2026 Telekom ranked among the most-discussed stocks in the wallstreet-online forum ranking of German retail investors. That led to the first edition of this analysis on August 7, 2026, based on the half-year report.
This edition updates it. The occasion is the interim Group report for the period ended September 30, 2026, which Telekom published on November 5, 2026 — together with a media release, a presentation and a Board decision on the dividend taken the evening before. The first edition had named exactly this date as the next checkpoint. Here it is.
Update: The first nine months of 2026 — what the third quarter changed
The third quarter was the strongest of the year so far. The numbers first:
- Third-quarter revenue of €31,102 million, up 7.5 percent reported and 5.5 percent organic. After nine months: €90,906 million, up 4.1 percent reported and 4.5 percent organic.
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA AL of €12,210 million, up 9.9 percent (organic: up 8.0 percent). After nine months: €35,552 million, a margin of about 39.1 percent after 38.2 percent a year earlier.
- Third-quarter net profit of €2,762 million, up 13.8 percent — after a 17.7 percent decline in the first half. After nine months, net profit is still down 8.0 percent at €7,255 million.
- Third-quarter free cash flow AL of €5,703 million, up 1.4 percent; after nine months €16,417 million, up 1.7 percent.
- Net debt of €134,208 million as of September 30, 2026, after €138,387 million at June 30 — helped by €2.5 billion in cash from T-Mobile US’s sale of 800 MHz spectrum to Grain in August.
On top of that came the year’s third guidance raise, after May and August. Once again the driver is the U.S. business, for which Telekom now expects $36.4 billion instead of $36.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA AL. The report puts the new group targets at around €47.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and around €20.1 billion of free cash flow AL:
“We now expect adjusted EBITDA AL for the Group to come in at around EUR 47.6 billion. […] We now expect to post free cash flow AL of around EUR 20.1 billion.”
— Deutsche Telekom AG, interim Group report 9M 2026, Forecast
The original targets in the 2025 annual report were around €47.4 billion and around €19.8 billion. Planning still assumes $1.13 per euro, and according to the media release sustainable adjusted earnings per share are still expected to be €2.20. What does that mean for the final quarter? Free cash flow AL needs about another €3.7 billion (€20.1 billion minus €16,417 million) — in the fourth quarter of 2025 the figure was roughly €3.4 billion (€19,546 million minus €16,149 million). Adjusted EBITDA AL needs about €12.0 billion, slightly less than in the third quarter. The bar is within reach.
The second piece of news matters directly to shareholders. On the eve of the results, the Board of Management took a decision that the report lists among events after the reporting period: it approved share buybacks of up to €2 billion in fiscal 2027 and plans to propose a dividend of €1.10 per share for fiscal 2026 to the 2027 shareholders’ meeting, based on expected 2026 earnings.
That would be 10 percent more than the €1.00 for 2025; the media release calls it a “record dividend.” The proposal becomes final with the full-year figures on February 25, 2027. CEO Tim Höttges said Telekom was setting standards in its industry with its strong figures. The presentation for the conference call, which he gave with CFO Christian Illek on the same day, sums up the quarter as “Guidance upgrade in the US and for the group” and calls leverage “well within comfort zone.” No transcript of the Q&A was available at the editorial cutoff on November 5, 2026; our assessment is therefore based on the report, the media release and the presentation slides.
Two management changes are in the report as well: since November 1, 2026 Jan Hofmeyr has headed the Board department Product and Technology, and CFO Christian Illek will leave at the end of April 30, 2027; his successor Dhananjay Mirchandani starts on May 1, 2027. And what is not in the report is news too: the merger with T-Mobile US discussed in the press since April does not appear in the nine-month report either. More on that in uncomfortable truth no. 2.
The numbers over the years — given their due
Let’s start with what genuinely impresses. Over six years Telekom grew by almost half: from €80,185 million of revenue in 2019 to €119,081 million in 2025. The biggest jump came in 2020 with T-Mobile US’s acquisition of Sprint — but growth continued year after year, and 2026 is extending it with a 4.1 percent gain after nine months.
Even more important is the cash. Net cash from operating activities reached €40,627 million in 2025, cash capex excluding spectrum was €16,864 million. After that investment and lease payments, free cash flow after leases (free cash flow AL) came to €19,546 million in 2025 — the money that pays for dividends, buybacks and debt service.
That cash flow also pays for the buybacks: a program running since January 5, 2026 was raised by ad hoc release on August 6, 2026 to up to €5 billion — 62.0 million shares for €1.8 billion had been bought by September 30, and another roughly 27 million for €0.7 billion by November 3. On April 29, 2026, 55.4 million previously repurchased shares were canceled — the cake is cut into fewer slices. In numbers: the weighted average share count fell from 4,879 million in the first nine months of 2025 to 4,812 million a year later.
And there was outside validation: Standard & Poor’s and Fitch upgraded the rating to A− with a stable outlook in May and June 2026; Moody’s rates Telekom A3 stable.
That is good news, and it deserves to stand as such. Now for the other side.
Uncomfortable truth no. 1: The dollar decides what arrives — in both directions
The management report says “organic 4.5 percent.” The income statement says “4.1 percent.” Both refer to the same group revenue over the same nine months. The report itself explains the difference:
“In the first three quarters of 2026, we generated net revenue of EUR 90.9 billion, which was up 4.1 % or EUR 3.5 billion year-on-year. In organic terms, revenue increased by 4.5 % against the prior-year level, with exchange rate effects having a net decreasing effect of EUR 2.1 billion and effects of changes in the composition of the Group an increasing effect of EUR 1.8 billion.”
— Deutsche Telekom AG, interim Group report 9M 2026, Results of operations of the Group
What does that mean in everyday terms? Imagine you work in Switzerland and are paid in francs. Your boss gives you a five percent raise. If the franc weakens against the euro at the same time, less still lands in your German bank account. Both statements are true: you earned more — and you have less money.
At mid-year the gap was wide: up 2.4 percent reported versus 4.0 percent organic, with a currency drag of €2.5 billion. After nine months the drag has shrunk to €2.1 billion — so, arithmetically, the exchange rate had a slightly positive effect in the third quarter. There, the reported rate of 7.5 percent exceeded the organic rate of 5.5 percent for the first time this year, helped also by U.S. acquisitions. It is the other side of the same coin: the dollar that shrank the numbers in the first half can just as easily inflate them.
The cross-check confirms the link: where there is little dollar exposure, there is little gap. After nine months, Germany grew 3.1 percent reported versus 3.3 percent organic, Europe 2.3 versus 2.5 percent — while the U.S. segment showed 4.6 versus 5.2 percent.
To be fair: the organic calculation is no trick; it is standard and useful. It answers the question “How is the business doing?” It does not answer “How much money actually arrived?” For an investor who thinks in euros and is paid dividends in euros, the second question matters more — and the third quarter shows the exchange rate can swing either way.
Uncomfortable truth no. 2: A third of the profit is not yours
This was the finding that surprised us most in the first edition — and it is not hidden, but sits in the last line of the consolidated income statement.
The path there is short: from EBIT of €20,088 million, the financial result takes €4,839 million and income taxes €4,012 million. The group thus earned a profit of €11,237 million in the first nine months of 2026. Of that, €7,255 million is attributable to the owners of the parent — that is “net profit,” from which earnings per share of €1.51 are calculated. The remaining €3,982 million, around 35 percent, belongs to other shareholders, predominantly the minority shareholders of T-Mobile US.
“Net profit decreased year-on-year by EUR 0.6 billion to EUR 7.3 billion. Tax expense increased by EUR 0.3 billion to EUR 4.0 billion. Profit attributable to non-controlling interests decreased by EUR 0.2 billion to EUR 4.0 billion. This decline was primarily attributable to the United States operating segment. Adjusted net profit amounted to EUR 8.4 billion compared with EUR 7.6 billion in the prior-year period.”
— Deutsche Telekom AG, interim Group report 9M 2026, Net profit
The balance sheet tells the same story. Of €90,863 million of equity as of September 30, 2026, €62,466 million belongs to Telekom shareholders and €28,396 million to other shareholders — a good 31 percent.
Why? Because Telekom owns far less of its most important subsidiary than its full consolidation in the group accounts might lead one to assume:
“As of September 30, 2026, Deutsche Telekom’s stake in T‑Mobile US amounted to 45.5 %. Taking the treasury shares held by T‑Mobile US into account, Deutsche Telekom had a 54.8 % ownership stake in T‑Mobile US as of September 30, 2026.”
— Deutsche Telekom AG, interim Group report 9M 2026, Other transactions that had no effect on the composition of the Group
The share net of treasury shares rises quarter after quarter — from 54.2 percent at June 30 to 54.8 percent at September 30 — without Telekom buying a single additional share. The subsidiary itself supplies the reason: T-Mobile US repurchased $9.5 billion of its own stock in the first nine months of 2026. The voting majority — 55.7 percent — additionally rests on a voting agreement with SoftBank struck in the Sprint deal. For accounting purposes that suffices for full consolidation: T-Mobile US revenue, costs and assets sit in Telekom’s books at 100 percent. Economically, only a little over half of it belongs to Telekom shareholders.
Rule of thumb: the consolidated accounts show what Telekom controls. They do not show what it owns. Anyone comparing the market value with group revenue is comparing a price for half the company with the output of the whole.
This is exactly where the merger speculation comes in, reported by Handelsblatt on April 23, 2026: combining both companies under a new holding would close the gap. On July 31, 2026, however, U.S. outlet Semafor reported that talks on the combination, valued at around $300 billion, had stalled over U.S. and shareholder concerns. Neither company has confirmed anything — and the nine-month report of November 5, 2026, which covers events through November 4, mentions neither the plan nor any stalling of talks. For an analysis this remains an open question, not a number to calculate with.
Uncomfortable truth no. 3: The adjusted figure leaves out €2.1 billion
Telekom steers by adjusted EBITDA AL — operating profit before depreciation, after lease expense (“after leases”) and excluding special factors. In the first nine months of 2026 it came to €35,552 million, up 6.4 percent.
Without the adjustment the picture is more modest: EBITDA AL rose just 3.3 percent to €33,462 million. The difference is the special factors — €2,091 million, after €1,028 million a year earlier. After three quarters that is already more than in the whole of 2025 at €1,792 million.
The report breaks down the items: €1,095 million of staff restructuring, mainly from T-Mobile US’s 2025/2026 workforce transformation program but also from socially responsible staff measures in Germany; €329 million of write-downs on right-of-use assets after useful lives of certain assets taken over with UScellular were shortened; €327 million from acquisitions and disposals, mostly integration costs from the same deal; plus €328 million of other special factors, including restructuring of the T-Mobile US network and store network, and €12 million of non-staff restructuring. The workforce cut is visible: total headcount in the U.S. segment fell 8.3 percent since year-end 2025.
In everyday terms: a restaurant reports a record month, “adjusted for the new kitchen.” But the kitchen was really bought and really paid for. Special factors are not an accounting trick — they are real costs that simply drop out of the number that gets advertised first.
And they are not the only reason profit fell. The financial result deteriorated by €1.2 billion to minus €4,839 million, mainly because the prior-year period contained reversals of impairment losses of €0.5 billion and €0.2 billion on the stakes in GD Towers (the tower business) and GlasfaserPlus — book gains that do not repeat — while pro-rata losses at fiber holdings Metronet and Lumos added a burden. Bottom line: EBIT up 3.4 percent, net profit down 8.0 percent, earnings per share from €1.62 to €1.51.
The fair counterpoint again, and the third quarter supplies it: at €458 million, special factors from July to September were lower than the €746 million of the prior-year quarter, and quarterly net profit rose 13.8 percent. Some of the UScellular integration work seems to be paying off. The test remains the same line in the 2026 annual report on February 25, 2027: how far will full-year special factors exceed 2025’s €1,792 million?
Uncomfortable truth no. 4: €134 billion of debt — and new money costs as much as the dividend
As of September 30, 2026 Telekom reported net debt of €134,208 million. That is less than the €138,387 million at June 30, but more than the €132,518 million at the end of 2025. Deduct lease liabilities, as the group does for its net debt AL metric, and €100,515 million remains.
A large part of it sits in America. In its own quarterly report (10-Q), T-Mobile US alone reported $83.7 billion of debt to third parties as of September 30, 2026, excluding leases — about €74 billion at the group’s closing rate of €0.88067 per dollar. That debt is fully included in Telekom’s consolidated balance sheet, even though about 45 percent of the subsidiary belongs to outside shareholders. Telekom’s market value of roughly €128 billion (data as of November 4, 2026), by contrast, reflects only the stake of Telekom shareholders. Setting group debt directly against that market value would therefore be lopsided. We run the fair comparison — enterprise value including outside stakes against operating profit — in the valuation chapter.
That is not unusual for a network operator — fiber, towers and spectrum are financed over decades, not paid for out of current business. And the figures behind it hold up: the equity ratio was 31.0 percent — higher than at mid-year (30.5 percent), lower than at year-end 2025 (31.8 percent) — interest expense in the first nine months was €4,892 million against EBIT of €20,088 million — coverage of about 4.1 times. This is nowhere near overindebtedness, and the rating agencies agree: Standard & Poor’s and Fitch upgraded Deutsche Telekom AG to A− with a stable outlook in May and June 2026.
Still, the price of that debt is worth a look, and the report provides it: on October 6, 2026 Telekom issued euro bonds of €1.9 billion in three tranches maturing between 2031 and 2038 — at coupons between 4.000 and 4.625 percent. The dividend yield was about 3.7 percent on the €1.00 paid for 2025 as of November 4, 2026, and about 4.1 percent on the planned €1.10. The group is refinancing at roughly the rate it pays out as a dividend. For shareholders that means every billion spent on buybacks rather than debt reduction saves dividends on the canceled shares but costs new interest of a similar size — the trade is no free lunch. Do the math: €1 billion of buybacks saves about €41 million of dividends a year at a yield of roughly 4.1 percent; the same billion raised as bonds at 4.000 to 4.625 percent costs €40 million to just over €46 million in interest. Two things shift the math, in opposite directions: interest reduces taxable profit while dividends do not — a point for the bond. And the dividend per share is set to rise, so the dividend saved grows with it — a point for the buyback. How heavily interest and build-out costs can weigh on a network balance sheet is also shown in our Nokia analysis, which looks at the same industry from the equipment maker’s side.
A second item that appears in no presentation sits in the risk chapter of the nine-month report: Vodafone puts its claim over charges for the shared use of cable ducts at around €1,057 million plus interest for January 2012 to December 2025.
“Vodafone Deutschland now puts its claim at around EUR 1,057 million plus interest for the period from January 2012 to December 2025. It is currently not possible to reliably estimate the financial impact.”
— Deutsche Telekom AG, interim Group report 9M 2026, Risks
“Not possible to reliably estimate” means: the report gives no amount that Telekom itself expects. For comparison, net profit for the first nine months of 2026 was €7,255 million. The claim equals roughly one seventh of that, before up to fourteen years of interest.
What the stock costs — and what the pros expect
We give orders of magnitude rather than running prices here, all as of November 4, 2026. With about 4.78 billion shares outstanding and a closing price of €26.76, the market value is roughly €128 billion — which yields these ratios:
- Price/earnings: about 15 according to fundamental data (trailing twelve months through June), about 14 using trailing twelve-month EPS through September (roughly €1.86); about 12 on the €2.20 of sustainable adjusted earnings per share the group is targeting
- Price/book: about 2.1
- Enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA AL: about 5.4 to at least 6.2, based on the 2026 guidance of around €47.6 billion — derivation directly below this list
- Dividend yield: about 3.7 percent on the €1.00 paid for 2025, about 4.1 percent on the €1.10 planned for 2026
We deliberately do not give a price/sales ratio. Market value reflects only what belongs to Telekom shareholders; group revenue, group EBITDA and group debt, by contrast, include T-Mobile US at 100 percent. Putting the two in relation measures a price for part of the company against the output of the whole. A clean enterprise value therefore has to include the outside shareholders:
- Telekom’s market value (November 4, 2026): roughly €128 billion
- plus net debt AL (September 30, 2026): €100,515 million — debt excluding leases, matching EBITDA AL, which already deducts lease costs
- plus non-controlling interests at book value (September 30, 2026): €28,396 million
- equals roughly €257 billion — about 5.4 times the adjusted EBITDA AL the group is targeting for 2026
Book value, however, is the floor. According to its quarterly report (10-Q), T-Mobile US had about 1,059 million shares outstanding on October 23, 2026, of which Telekom held about 55.0 percent; about 45 percent were held by outside shareholders. At the closing price of $159.17 on November 4, 2026 and $1.1235 per euro, that outside stake was worth roughly €68 billion on the stock market. Valuing T-Mobile US’s outside shareholders at that market value, and leaving out entirely the book value of the other outside stakes in group companies, which the nine-month report does not show separately, already gives roughly €296 billion — at least about 6.2 times targeted adjusted EBITDA AL. Including the other outside stakes, the figure would be somewhat higher still.
Run the same math from the other side and you get perhaps the most important number in this analysis: the roughly 55 percent Telekom holds in T-Mobile US was worth about €82.5 billion on the stock market on November 4, 2026 — just under 65 percent of Telekom’s entire market value. Everything else combined — Germany, Europe, Systems Solutions and investments, including the debt outside T-Mobile US — is left with an implied value of roughly €45 billion. This is a thought experiment, not a valuation: taxes on a sale and a possible holding-structure discount are not included. But it shows how heavily Telekom’s market value hinges on the share price of its American subsidiary.
The stock has become cheaper since the first edition of this analysis: the closing price was €29.15 on August 6, 2026 and €26.11 on September 30. The group itself explains the share price development unusually openly in its report:
“The share price performance mainly reflects market concerns over the long-term dynamics shaping key North American business, which are dominated by fears of a potential intensification of U.S. competition and by anticipated disruptions from satellite networks such as Starlink.”
— Deutsche Telekom AG, interim Group report 9M 2026, The T-Share
That is the heart of the valuation question: the market does not doubt the third-quarter figures, it doubts how long the U.S. business can keep running like this. And because almost two thirds of the market value arithmetically rests on the T-Mobile US stake, that question hits the T-Share harder than its name suggests. On price/book, though, the caveat from truth no. 2 applies: book value per share rests on the €62,466 million attributable to Telekom shareholders, not on total equity of €90,863 million.
Management explicitly justifies its buybacks with the valuation — and acts on it. The ad hoc release of August 6, 2026, which raised the buyback to up to €5 billion, already justified the move by saying the share had recently traded at the lower end of its historical price/earnings valuation corridors. About €2.5 billion — half — had been executed by November 3, 2026; the additional tranches run until December 22, 2026. A company repurchasing its own shares with reference to a low historical valuation sends a signal — but not one to rely on: buybacks are paid from the same cash flow as dividends and debt service.
The professionals’ view: according to fundamental data, the average analyst price target as of November 4, 2026 was around €36, above that day’s closing price of €26.76. Consensus figures are snapshots, not forecasts — mainly they show that most analysts weight the organic and adjusted view more heavily than the worries about the U.S. business. For how the same valuation logic plays out at another German heavyweight, see our Vonovia analysis.
Opportunities and risks at a glance
Opportunities
- Reliable, rising cash flow. Around €20 billion of free cash flow a year, plus guidance raised three times in 2026 — driven by the U.S. business. The figure is consolidated: it includes T-Mobile US at 100 percent, even though about 45 percent of it belongs to outside shareholders.
- Rising payouts on a shrinking share count. Dividends plus buybacks in both 2026 and 2027; every canceled share makes your slice of the cake bigger.
- Better credit standing. A− with a stable outlook from Standard & Poor’s and Fitch since May and June 2026.
- Margin on the rise. The adjusted EBITDA AL margin reached about 39.1 percent in the first nine months of 2026, after 38.2 percent a year earlier.
- A second leg in the making. Around €250 million of AI-related revenue from businesses outside the U.S. is expected for 2026, around €800 million by 2030.
Risks
- Group-sized currency risk. The weaker dollar cost about €2.1 billion of revenue versus the organic view after nine months of 2026; planning assumes $1.13 per euro.
- U.S. concentration. About 66 percent of revenue and a good two thirds of adjusted group EBITDA AL come from a single market; the group itself names competition and satellite networks such as Starlink as market concerns.
- Profit leaking to minorities. €3,982 million of €11,237 million of nine-month profit and €28,396 million of €90,863 million of equity belong to outside shareholders (September 30, 2026).
- Special factors running high. €2,091 million after nine months of 2026 versus €1,792 million in the whole of 2025.
- Costly refinancing. €134,208 million of net debt as of September 30, 2026, €100,515 million excluding leases; new bonds cost 4.000 to 4.625 percent — roughly the dividend yield.
- Litigation with an open outcome. Vodafone claims around €1,057 million plus interest; the report says the impact cannot be reliably estimated.
- Unconfirmed structural plans. The merger report of April 23, 2026, as well as the report of stalled talks of July 31, 2026, are unconfirmed press reports; the half-year and nine-month reports are silent on them.
A human conclusion
We started with two anchors: the T-Aktie of 1996, an entry price from a generation ago, and the August 2026 price of a little over €29. Anchoring is one of the most stubborn traps in investing — it makes us measure a company by a price only we know, not by what it earns today and how much of that belongs to us.
If you take one insight away from this analysis, let it be this: for the same nine months, Deutsche Telekom publishes two honest profit figures, and both are correct. The adjusted one shows how well the business is running — up 10.2 percent. The reported one shows what is left after all costs actually incurred — down 8.0 percent, with a first bright spot in the third quarter. And of what is left, about a third does not belong to Telekom shareholders at all, but to the minority shareholders of a subsidiary in Bellevue, Washington. Conversely, that very subsidiary carries almost two thirds of the market value you pay for the T-Share.
That does not make the stock bad. A group that generates around €20 billion of free cash a year — consolidated, so including the part that belongs to T-Mobile US’s outside shareholders — wants to raise its dividend to €1.10, cancels shares and has seen its credit rating upgraded has solid arguments. It just makes the stock more complicated than it looks. Investing here is a bet not only on networks, but also on an exchange rate, on competition in America and on an ownership structure whose future so far only newspapers write about.
The next checkpoint is fixed: on February 25, 2027 the group publishes its 2026 annual report. The same table will again put everything side by side — the organic figure, the adjusted one and the reported one. Look at all three. And don’t let an entry price do the talking.
What you make of it is your decision. And that is how it should be.
Sources
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 (January 1 to September 30, 2026), published November 5, 2026 (English edition)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: Konzernzwischenbericht 9M 2026 (German edition, authoritative)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — Results of operations of the Group
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — Forecast
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — Other transactions that had no effect on the composition of the Group (T-Mobile US stake, buybacks)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — Events after the reporting period (dividend plan, 2027 buyback, bonds)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — Risks (legal proceedings)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — The T-Share
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report 9M 2026 — Highlights (AI Investor Day, Board changes, transactions)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: media release on Q3 2026 results, November 5, 2026 (German)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: financial results — “Q3 2026 results” presentation of November 5, 2026 (no conference call transcript was available at the editorial cutoff)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: interim Group report H1 2026, published August 6, 2026 (basis of the first edition)
- T-Mobile US, Inc.: quarterly report (10-Q) for the third quarter of 2026, filed October 28, 2026 (shares outstanding as of October 23, 2026, Deutsche Telekom’s stake, debt as of September 30, 2026)
- Deutsche Telekom AG: ad hoc release of August 6, 2026 — 2026 share buyback raised by up to €3 billion to up to €5 billion
- Handelsblatt: “Deutsche Telekom prüft Fusion mit US-Tochter T-Mobile,” April 23, 2026 (press report, not confirmed by the company)
- Semafor: “T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom merger stalls over US, shareholder concerns,” July 31, 2026 (press report, not confirmed by the company)
This analysis is journalistic commentary based on publicly available company reports and market data — not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Stocks can lose their entire value; a total loss of the capital invested is possible. Positions held by the operator are disclosed daily; where one exists, it appears as a notice at the top of this deep dive. All figures come from the original sources named and carry the reporting date stated there; market-based metrics are as of November 4, 2026; this also applies to the T-Mobile US share price and exchange rate in the valuation math (source: fundamental data). The latest periodic report evaluated is the interim Group report 9M 2026 of November 5, 2026, covering events through November 4, 2026. First edition August 7, 2026, updated November 5, 2026.
Our Bottom Line at a Glance
- Operating performance positive
- Organic revenue grew 4.5 percent and adjusted EBITDA AL 7.6 percent in the first nine months of 2026; in the third quarter organic revenue growth accelerated to 5.5 percent. On November 5, 2026 the group raised its full-year guidance for the third time this year, to around €47.6 billion adjusted EBITDA AL and around €20.1 billion free cash flow AL.
- Earnings quality negative
- Net profit fell 8.0 percent to €7,255 million in the first nine months of 2026, while adjusted net profit rose 10.2 percent. Special factors affecting EBITDA AL reached €2,091 million after three quarters, already above the full year 2025. On the plus side, the third quarter carried only €458 million, less than a year earlier.
- Dependence on the U.S. negative
- About 66 percent of group revenue and a good two thirds of adjusted group EBITDA AL came from the United States in the first nine months of 2026. Planning still assumes $1.13 per euro. According to the interim report, the share price mainly reflects market worries about competition and satellite networks such as Starlink in the North American business.
- Balance sheet and funding neutral
- Net debt fell to €134,208 million as of September 30, 2026 (excluding leases: €100,515 million); it includes the debt of T-Mobile US in full. The equity ratio was 31.0 percent, after 30.5 percent at mid-year (year-end 2025: 31.8 percent), EBIT covered interest expense about 4.1 times, and S&P and Fitch have rated Telekom A− with a stable outlook since May and June 2026.
- Shareholder returns positive
- For 2026 management plans a €1.10 dividend per share after €1.00 for 2025, plus buybacks of up to €5 billion in 2026 — about €2.5 billion executed by November 3, 2026 — and up to €2 billion in 2027. The weighted share count fell from 4,879 million to 4,812 million within a year.
- Open structural question neutral
- A press report of April 23, 2026 described a possible merger with T-Mobile US; on July 31, 2026 Semafor reported that it had stalled. Neither the half-year nor the nine-month report of November 5, 2026 mentions the plan, and there is no company statement. The question remains open and cannot be quantified.
Deutsche Telekom is a steadily growing infrastructure company with rising payouts, guidance raised three times and a solid credit rating — and at the same time a group that earns two thirds of its results in U.S. dollars and whose profit belongs to outside shareholders by a good third. Anyone assessing the stock should know both profit figures and which of them carries their own expectations. Not investment advice.
What Our Rating Means
Open questions
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The business model works, and the balance sheet is sound despite €134.2 billion of net debt, with interest covered about 4.1 times, a 31.0 percent equity ratio and an A− rating; there is no accounting or governance breach. One material operating question remains open: two thirds of revenue and earnings depend on a single foreign market and an exchange rate, reported net profit after nine months of 2026 was 8.0 percent below the prior year, and special factors have already exceeded the level of the whole previous year. The third quarter, with net profit up 13.8 percent, was a first counter-signal, but not yet proof. Hence yellow rather than green — not because the stock is expensive, but because earnings quality without currency translation and adjustments still has to be demonstrated over a full year. The decision is yours.
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive, based on public sources — not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. Your personal circumstances (investment goals, risk capacity, taxes) cannot be taken into account. What our levels mean, how verdicts are formed, and what conflicts of interest exist →
Worth Noting
- First edition of August 7, 2026 (prompted by the wallstreet-online forum ranking of August 5, 2026), updated on November 5, 2026 to the interim Group report 9M 2026.
- Data basis is the interim Group report 9M 2026 of November 5, 2026 — the latest periodic report, covering events through November 4, 2026 — plus the media release and presentation of the same day. No transcript of the conference call was available at the editorial cutoff. Market-based metrics: data as of November 4, 2026.
- Risk of confusion: this analysis covers the parent Deutsche Telekom AG (Xetra: DTE), not its separately Nasdaq-listed subsidiary T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS), nor the U.S. ADRs DTEGY and DTEGF.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Because they measure different things. The reported rate shows what actually arrives in euros: revenue up 4.1 percent in the first nine months of 2026. The organic rate strips out exchange rates, acquisitions and disposals: up 4.5 percent. After nine months, translating dollars into euros cost €2.1 billion of revenue, while acquisitions added €1.8 billion. In the third quarter alone, the reported rate of 7.5 percent actually exceeded the organic rate of 5.5 percent.
Heavily. In the first nine months of 2026, €59,782 million of €90,906 million in group revenue came from the United States operating segment — 65.7 percent measured by external revenue. Of adjusted EBITDA AL it was €23,842 million of €35,552 million, a good two thirds. Germany contributed €19,444 million of revenue, Europe €9,565 million and Systems Solutions €3,182 million.
Only narrowly. As of September 30, 2026, Deutsche Telekom’s capital share in T-Mobile US was 45.5 percent according to the interim Group report. Taking T-Mobile US treasury shares into account, it was 54.8 percent. Through the voting agreement with SoftBank from the Sprint deal, Telekom controls 55.7 percent of the voting rights. That is why T-Mobile US is fully consolidated — and why the income statement carries a large line for outside shareholders.
The report for the period ended September 30, 2026 gives two reasons. The financial result worsened by €1.2 billion to minus €4,839 million, mainly because the prior year included reversals of impairment losses of €0.5 billion and €0.2 billion on GD Towers and GlasfaserPlus. And special factors affecting EBITDA AL rose from €1,028 million to €2,091 million. In the third quarter alone, however, net profit rose 13.8 percent to €2,762 million.
Net debt stood at €134,208 million as of September 30, 2026, after €138,387 million at June 30 and €132,518 million at the end of 2025; excluding lease liabilities it was €100,515 million. That figure includes the debt of T-Mobile US in full, even though about 45 percent of the subsidiary belongs to other shareholders — so setting it directly against Telekom’s market value would be lopsided. EBIT of €20,088 million covered interest expense of €4,892 million about 4.1 times in the first nine months; the equity ratio was 31.0 percent.
For fiscal 2025, €1.00 per share was paid in April 2026. For fiscal 2026, the Board of Management decided on November 4, 2026 to plan a proposal of €1.10 per share to the 2027 annual shareholders’ meeting — 10 percent more; according to the financial calendar, the meeting is scheduled for April 14, 2027. The final proposal comes with the full-year figures. On top of that run share buybacks of up to €5 billion in 2026 and up to €2 billion in 2027.
Yes, on a small scale so far. At its AI Investor Day on October 5, 2026, Telekom put a number on it for the first time: for 2026 it expects around €250 million in AI-related revenue from businesses outside the United States, rising to around €800 million by 2030. For comparison, group revenue was €90,906 million in the first nine months of 2026. According to the media release of November 5, 2026, the Industrial AI Cloud area posted the strongest increase in Systems Solutions order entry in the third quarter.
According to the financial calendar in the interim Group report 9M 2026, the annual report 2026 and the annual press conference are scheduled for February 25, 2027. The 2027 annual shareholders’ meeting is set for April 14, 2027, and the report for the first quarter of 2027 for May 12, 2027. All dates are subject to change.
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