Vale SA ADR
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow: the business works and the balance sheet is solid, but earnings swing hard with a single commodity price — from $22.4 billion of profit in 2021 to $2.4 billion in 2025. Not red, because no substance risk is documented: net debt at 0.8 times EBITDA, interest coverage of almost 16 times, positive free cash flow, and most of the dam legacy is settled and provisioned. Not green, because profitability hinges on the iron ore price, on China and on rising costs, and the cases in London and Amsterdam are still open. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Vale is growing revenue and operating earnings, expanding copper and has a solid balance sheet; net income attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2026, at $3.3 billion, was below the prior year, though. Just over three quarters of revenue comes from iron ore and pellets, most of which goes to China; profit fell from $22.4 billion in 2021 to $2.4 billion in 2025. The dam collapses cost about $1.2 billion in Q2 2026 alone and $1.6 billion in the first half, and keep courts in London and Amsterdam busy; on top, costs per ton are rising. At $13.62 (October 9, 2026), Vale was worth about $58 billion. Not investment advice.
Business model
One of the world's largest iron ore producers, running large railroad and port logistics; Q2 2026 brought the highest iron ore output of any second quarter since 2018 and the best second copper quarter in nine years.
Balance sheet
Net debt of $13.2 billion, 0.8 times adjusted EBITDA; interest coverage of almost 16 times, equity attributable to shareholders of $38.0 billion (June 30, 2026).
Concentration risk
76.6% of 2025 revenue from iron ore and pellets, 63% of ore shipments to China; every dollar of ore price per ton moved 2025 operating income by about $290 million.
Dam legacy
About $1.2 billion of outflows in Q2 2026 alone; open cases in London (judgment expected 2027/2028) and Amsterdam (about $851 million secured), new environmental cases at Fábrica and Viga in 2026.
Costs
Iron ore cost estimate raised in July 2026 to $58–62 per ton all-in (previously $52–56); Q2 2026 profit down 35% despite 19% higher revenue, partly due to higher costs, partly due to financial items.
Copper
Q2 2026 copper EBITDA up 91% to just over $1.0 billion; all-in costs expected at $0 to $500 per ton in 2026 thanks to gold by-products.
Worth Noting
This analysis was prompted by the wallstreet-online forum ranking (stocks most discussed by German retail investors), as of October 11, 2026. Our in-house stock scanner lists Vale in its price-to-cash-flow ranking (price-to-cash-flow of 10 or less), as of October 11, 2026. The analysis uses the image of an iceberg (salience): whatever stands out gets more weight than it deserves.
On the evidence base: Vale is a foreign private issuer (Form 20-F/6-K) with SEC CIK 0000917851. We reviewed Form 20-F for 2025 (2026-03-27) and for 2022 through 2024, the performance report and interim financial statements as of 2026-06-30 (Form 6-K of 2026-07-31) with the same-day announcements, and all Form 6-K filings through October 2, 2026. The report for September 30, 2026 had not been filed by October 11, 2026; Vale scheduled it for October 29, 2026.
Our calculations: market value (4,255,762,795 shares times $13.62 = $57.96 billion); last-four-quarter profit (2,352 + 3,268 − 3,511 = $2,109 million, P/E about 27); last-four-quarter revenue (38,403 + 19,756 − 16,923 = $41,236 million, P/S about 1.4); last-four-quarter operating cash flow (8,801 + 4,291 − 3,525 = $9,567 million, price-to-cash-flow about 6); last-four-quarter adjusted EBITDA (Vale's adjusted EBITDA, not pro forma EBITDA) (15,458 + 7,506 − 6,501 = $16,463 million); enterprise value 57.96 + 13.17 = $71.1 billion (about 4.3 times), with expanded net debt $74.6 billion (about 4.5 times); price-to-book $57.96 billion to $38.01 billion; dam-related outflows in Q2 2026 220 + 980 = $1,200 million, about 30% of $4,066 million; dam-related outflows in H1 2026 373 (Q1: 137 + 107 + 129) + 1,200 (Q2) = $1,573 million, equivalent to the half-year column of the performance report 357 + 370 + 846 (almost $1.6 billion, about 92% of the $1,701 million payout for the first half); H1 free cash flow after Brumadinho and Samarco payments 2,318 − 370 − 846 = $1,102 million; 2025 payout of $3,561 million against a $57.96 billion market value (about 6%); China share of revenue 19,038 to 38,403 million (49.6%); major shareholder stakes based on 4,255,762,795 shares (Capital World Investors: 384,837,491 shares per Schedule 13G/A of 2026-08-12 with a June 30, 2026 event date, about 9.0%; the interim financial statements still cite an older filing of 2026-01-08 for this holder).
Prices: closing price $13.62 on October 9, 2026 on the NYSE (fundamental data). Analyst ratings and average price target per fundamental data, as of October 11, 2026. The 2021 ($22.4 billion) and 2022 ($18.8 billion) profits are totals including discontinued operations; continuing operations alone came to $24.7 billion and $16.7 billion respectively.
Possible confusion: VALE on the NYSE is the depositary receipt (ADR) for the share VALE3 in São Paulo; one ADR equals one share. Samarco is owned 50/50 by Vale and BHP; the London case targets BHP, the Amsterdam case targets Vale directly; under an agreement with BHP of July 2024, Vale bears half of any payments arising from both cases.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 11, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at VALE since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Last price: 13.60 $ (As of: October 11, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
No dividend data is available for this stock yet.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vale SA ADR VALE | 58.0 | 27.2 | – | – | 22.0 | 0.5 | – |
| MP Materials Corp MP | 8.4 | – | 132.6 | 42.3 | -7.9 | 35.1 | -34.6 |
| Materion Corporation MTRN | 6.1 | 75.1 | 29.0 | 16.0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 119.2 |
| Skeena Resources Limited SKE | 4.2 | – | -3.7 | – | 0.0 | – | 67.3 |
| Almonty Industries Inc. ALM | 3.4 | – | 40.7 | 49.8 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 51.6 |
| USA Rare Earth, Inc. USAR | 3.2 | – | 28.0 | -9.7 | -643.7 | -99.9 | -53.3 |
| Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Company SSMR | 2.1 | – | 0.0 | -7,081.9 | -9,263.4 | 421.8 | – |
| TMC the metals company Inc TMC | 1.9 | – | -2.1 | – | 0.0 | – | -64.2 |
| Nexa Resources SA NEXA | 1.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 28.1 | 19.8 | 8.2 | 150.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 3.4 | 27.2 | 15.3 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 51.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q3 | 0.56 | -16.40 | 9,553 | -10.10 | 25.20 | 1,563 | 197 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.20 | -70.00 | 9,605 | -26.20 | -7.90 | 2,912 | 586 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.35 | -10.30 | 8,119 | -4.00 | 17.20 | 1,683 | 424 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.50 | 16.30 | 8,804 | -11.30 | 24.00 | 1,915 | 733 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.64 | 14.30 | 10,407 | 8.90 | 25.80 | 2,590 | 1,197 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.90 | -547.80 | 11,061 | 15.20 | -35.30 | 2,896 | 723 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.44 | 25.70 | 9,261 | 14.10 | 20.40 | 1,888 | 700 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.36 | -28.00 | 10,491 | 19.20 | 12.90 | 2,502 | 1,239 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 1 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
No price target is available for this stock.
AI classification
AI Rating
Vale verkauft keine KI-Produkte; der Konzern lebt von Eisenerz und Pellets (76,6 Prozent des Umsatzes 2025), Kupfer und Nickel. KI wird im Jahresbericht Form 20-F für 2025 nicht als Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells genannt, sondern nur als Werkzeug von Cyberangreifern (Risikofaktor IT-Sicherheit) und als Nachfragetreiber für Kupfer (Rechenzentren). Im eigenen Betrieb setzt Vale KI ein: Das Projekt Smart Mine optimiert mit künstlicher Intelligenz den Betrieb der Muldenkipper, drei geotechnische Überwachungszentren beobachten die Dämme unter anderem mit Satelliten und KI (Form 20-F für 2025; ähnlich schon Form 20-F für 2024 mit dem Projekt minAInteligente), und der im Ergebnisbericht zum zweiten Quartal 2026 zusammengefasste erste Forschungs- und Innovationsbericht nennt mehr als 45 KI-Anwendungen von der Mine bis zur Logistik. Nach der Vorrangregel (verkauft > bedroht > nutzt > neutral) ergibt das „nutzt“. Ein Umsatz- oder Ergebnisbeitrag der KI ist nicht beziffert. Vale ist Foreign Private Issuer (Form 20-F/6-K).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We also invest in technological innovations, such as the Smart Mine project, which uses artificial intelligence to optimize the operation of off-road trucks."
Wir investieren auch in technologische Neuerungen wie das Projekt Smart Mine, das mit künstlicher Intelligenz den Betrieb der Muldenkipper im Gelände optimiert.
20-F · 2026-03-27 · View SEC filing
„Additionally, our main structures are also continuously monitored by three Geotechnical Monitoring Centers, that advanced technologies such as satellites and artificial intelligence."
Zusätzlich werden unsere wichtigsten Bauwerke laufend von drei geotechnischen Überwachungszentren beobachtet, die fortschrittliche Technologien wie Satelliten und künstliche Intelligenz [einsetzen].
20-F · 2026-03-27 · View SEC filing
„Highlights include over 45 AI applications from mine to logistics, more than 90 autonomous equipment units that move people away from high-risk activities; and 26.3 Mt of iron ore from circular sources."
Zu den Höhepunkten zählen mehr als 45 KI-Anwendungen von der Mine bis zur Logistik, mehr als 90 autonome Geräte, die Menschen aus Tätigkeiten mit hohem Risiko herausnehmen, und 26,3 Millionen Tonnen Eisenerz aus Kreislaufquellen.
6-K · 2026-07-31 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 6-K (Ergebnisbericht 2. Quartal 2026) — mehr als 45 KI-Anwendungen von der Mine bis zur Logistik 2026-07-31 · 6-K (Zwischenabschluss IFRS zum 30.06.2026) — kein KI-Bezug 2026-07-31 · 20-F 2025 — Smart Mine (KI für Muldenkipper), KI in der Damm-Überwachung; KI als Werkzeug von Cyberangreifern und als Nachfragetreiber für Kupfer 2026-03-27 · 20-F 2024 — Projekt minAInteligente (KI für den Dieselverbrauch), KI in der Damm-Überwachung 2025-03-28
Rated on October 11, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
The company
About the Company
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
- IPO Year
- 2002
- ISIN
- US91912E1055
Data as of: October 11, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.