TRX Gold Corporation
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The operating substance is real and growing — production, margin and cash prove it with original documents, and with the 45-to-16-percent negotiation there even exists a structural value lever the market could come to price. At the same time, the profit jump rests entirely on a record gold price, the expansion costs money before it pays, and the three open questions — gold price, expansion funding, state share — are not answered by any single quarterly report. Watchable waypoints: the full Q3 figures (mid-July 2026), the order for the new mill including its financing, ATM usage — and every announcement on the STAMICO conversion. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
TRX Gold is the rare Reddit discovery whose fundamentals genuinely shine: record production, a 62 percent gross margin, a full till, a third consecutive profitable fiscal year. But the shine has co-owners: 45 percent of the only mine belongs to the Tanzanian state agency STAMICO, the profit jump hangs on a gold price at record levels, the share count grew 14 percent in six months, and the future state share is being negotiated with an open outcome. About $264 million of market value (July 15, 2026) thus buys an amplifier on the gold price — with the state, dilution and single-mine risk as the counterweight. Not investment advice.
Business model & project
A pure single-mine producer: Buckreef (Tanzania) with an open pit, a 2,000-tonne plant and a committed expansion to 3,500+ tonnes per day; 893,000 ounces of well-documented resources plus 726,000 ounces in the potential category (April 2025). Easy to understand, but without any diversification across mine, country or product (40-F for fiscal 2025).
Operating performance
Records in series: quarterly production up 36 to 148 percent (Q1-Q3 2026 vs. prior year), recovery up from 67 to 84.6 percent, H1 2026 revenue of $59.2 million above the entire record year 2025 ($57.6 million), the full-year target of 25,000-30,000 ounces reaffirmed on June 5, 2026 — the mine delivers, measurably.
Balance sheet & financing
$26.0 million of cash and a current ratio of ~2.4 (February 28, 2026), no warrants left, only small credit facilities — but the annual report itself warns of possible additional capital needs for the expansion, and the $25 million ATM program sits ready for use; the till held just $7.8 million on August 31, 2025.
State partner & Tanzania risk
STAMICO holds 45 percent of the operating joint venture, the state collects a 7.35/4.35 percent royalty, buys a mandatory minimum of 20 percent of production (central bank) and in 2022 granted itself, by regulation, a 16 percent free carried interest in any mining venture; the conversion talks (45 to 16 percent) are, per the 40-F, uncertain — opportunity and concentration risk at once.
Capital history & dilution
The share count up 14 percent in six months (284.9 to 325.7 million through February 28, 2026), $145.8 million of accumulated losses from almost two decades and three company names; the warrant revaluation turned the record quarter Q2 2026 into an IFRS loss of $13.8 million ($20.4 million attributable to shareholders).
Gold price leverage
A cash cost of around $1,500 against $4,655 realized per ounce (Q2 2026) — the lever fully explains the record profits and works downward just as strongly if the gold price falls; the Q3 2026 average price of about $4,731 (up 52 percent year over year) is the silent core assumption of every extrapolation.
Worth Noting
TRX landed on our research list through our Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom data): 6 mentions in 24 hours as of July 15, 2026. Forum mentions are sentiment signals, not quality signals. Our fundamental scanners (Russell 3000 universe) do not cover the Canadian name by design.
TRX Gold is a Canadian issuer and files, instead of 10-K/10-Q, Forms 40-F (annual report, filed for fiscal 2025 on December 1, 2025) and 6-K (interim reports); the fiscal year ends August 31. The Q3 2026 production figures (release of June 5, 2026) are preliminary and unaudited; the full Q3 figures are announced for mid-July 2026.
The market value figure is dated July 15, 2026 (about $264 million); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. All amounts in U.S. dollars (TRX Gold's reporting currency).
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at TRX since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 0.51 $ to 2.20 $ · Last price: 1.30 $ (As of: September 18, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Gold
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRX Gold Corporation TRX | 0.5 | – | 13.2 | 63.8 | -22.0 | 4.9 | 142.3 |
| Newmont Goldcorp Corp NEM | 131.7 | 15.9 | 7.9 | 68.0 | 61.4 | 19.1 | 59.1 |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | 71.3 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 56.3 | 56.3 | 31.2 | 47.1 |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | 53.8 | 15.1 | 7.8 | 54.8 | 56.1 | 70.8 | 67.3 |
| Coeur Mining Inc CDE | 21.8 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 56.3 | 43.1 | 96.4 | 25.0 |
| Royal Gold Inc RGLD | 21.2 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 86.8 | 63.8 | 44.6 | 34.8 |
| SSR Mining Inc SSRM | 7.5 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 55.0 | 52.5 | 66.6 | 66.1 |
| Aura Minerals Inc. AUGO | 7.4 | 24.8 | 12.5 | 60.0 | 51.4 | 55.1 | 196.7 |
| Osisko Gold Ro OR | 6.9 | 24.5 | 18.8 | 96.9 | 77.0 | 47.5 | 3.4 |
| Median of companies shown | 21.2 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 60.0 | 56.1 | 47.5 | 59.1 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | -2 | -10 | -0.09 | -1 | 27 | 38 |
| 2017 | 0 | -4 | -5 | -0.04 | -3 | 29 | 41 |
| 2018 | 0 | -4 | -5 | -0.04 | -1 | 26 | 41 |
| 2019 | 0 | -4 | -23 | -0.17 | -3 | 13 | 29 |
| 2020 | 0 | -8 | -12 | -0.07 | -7 | 25 | 38 |
| 2021 | 0 | -12 | -5 | -0.02 | -9 | 60 | 71 |
| 2022 | 20 | 1 | -8 | -0.03 | 4 | 84 | 123 |
| 2023 | 70 | 19 | 4 | 0.01 | 23 | 99 | 168 |
| 2024 | 75 | 20 | -1 | 0.00 | 21 | 100 | 185 |
| 2025 | 79 | 22 | 1 | 0.00 | 16 | 108 | 222 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.01 | -200.00 | 19 | 11.50 | -26.00 | 4 | 0 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 25 | 51.20 | 15.10 | 8 | 1 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.01 | 100.00 | 18 | 1.00 | 7.80 | 3 | -2 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.01 | -370.30 | 13 | -9.70 | -27.70 | 3 | 0 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.00 | 93.00 | 17 | -9.10 | -1.70 | 5 | -1 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.02 | 115.00 | 24 | -6.50 | 10.40 | 16 | 3 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.03 | 200.00 | 35 | 99.70 | -16.60 | 4 | 1 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.04 | 500.00 | 47 | 253.60 | -59.80 | 12 | -4 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 2 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/31/2027 | 0.17 | 0.10 – 0.24 | 275 | 666.7% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
With these assumptions (discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%), no growth rate between -20.0% and 60.0% per year explains today’s market value — the reverse calculation yields no meaningful figure here.
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $620.1K |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $499.0M |
| Free cash flow in year ten | – |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | – |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 15.07.2026 gegen die beiden jüngsten Jahresberichte 40-F (TRX Gold ist kanadischer MJDS-Emittent, CIK 0001173643 — statt 10-K/10-Q gelten 40-F/6-K; Geschäftsjahresende 31. August) und die vier jüngsten quartalsbezogenen 6-K-Einreichungen: In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von TRX Gold findet sich kein einziger Treffer zu „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“ oder „AI“ — weder im 40-F für 2025 (samt Annual Information Form, Konzernabschluss und MD&A) noch im 40-F für 2024 noch in den 6-K-Zwischenberichten zu Q1 2026, Q2 2026, den vorläufigen Q3-2026-Produktionszahlen oder dem Q3-2025-Bericht (Volltext-Suche über alle Dokumente, 0 Treffer). TRX Gold ist ein reiner Ein-Minen-Goldförderer (Buckreef, Tansania): keine KI-Umsatzquelle, kein dokumentierter operativer KI-Einsatz, kein KI-Bezug in den Risk Factors — die Risiken der Firma heißen Goldpreis, Staatspartner STAMICO und Verwässerung, nicht KI. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog dokumentierter Negativ-Befund → „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 40-F 2025-12-01 · 40-F 2024-11-29 · 6-K 2026-06-05 · 6-K 2026-04-15 · 6-K 2026-01-14 · 6-K 2025-07-15
Rated on July 15, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 58.6%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 127.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 3.4%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 8.1%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 41.6%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 9 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 56 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 12.4%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 1.0%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 248.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 5,212.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -0.4x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 4
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 0.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 0.9%
- ROCE > 15% 12.4%
- Expected return > 10% 5,239.9%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
TRX Gold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral property in Tanzania. Its flagship project is the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania. The company was formerly known as Tanzanian Gold Corporation and changed its name to TRX Gold Corporation in May 2022. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Oakville, Canada.
- Employees
- 336
- Headquarters
- Oakville, ON
- Address
- 277 Lakeshore Road East, L6J 6J3 Oakville, Canada
- Phone
- 437 224 5241
- Website
- trxgold.com
- IPO Date
- 05/12/2005
- ISIN
- CA87283P1099
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Mullowney B.B.A., C.A., C.F.A., CPA | CEO & Director | 1977 |
| Michael P. Leonard C.A., CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 1976 |
| Richard Boffey | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Khalaf Rashid | Senior Vice President of Tanzania | 1970 |
| Christina Lalli | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Data as of: September 18, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.