Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc (RXRX)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Yellow because the decisive operating question is open while the substance is not acutely at risk: after twelve years the business model has not produced revenue that covers its own direct cost — in the first quarter of 2026, $6.5 million of revenue cost $12.5 million — and proof that the Recursion OS turns into approved medicines is still outstanding. Red lacks evidence: no going-concern indication, $1,024.8 million of equity, $665.2 million of liquidity against $18.7 million of financial debt, and a cash runway of roughly eight quarters (figures as of March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025). The unremediated control weaknesses and the heavy dilution weigh on the verdict but do not tip it: the financial statements themselves carry an unqualified opinion, and only an immaterial error has resulted so far. That the stock is expensive on revenue belongs in the valuation, not in the quality light. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Recursion of Salt Lake City is the showcase name of AI drug discovery: its own supercomputer, partners such as Roche, Sanofi and Bayer, and an annual report that names more than $20 billion of potential future milestones. The same report also carries the actual numbers: $74.7 million of revenue in 2025, a $644.8 million loss, and a first quarter of 2026 in which $6.5 million of revenue carried $12.5 million of direct cost. The share count rose from 191.0 million at the end of 2022 to 530.8 million as of March 31, 2026. The auditor declined to attest to the internal control system for 2025, and the founder left the board at the annual meeting on June 17, 2026. Not investment advice — just the question of how much future an investor wants to pre-fund.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 29, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at RXRX since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 3.00 $ — 5% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIRecursion verkauft KI-gestützte Wirkstoffforschung als Dienstleistung: Der gesamte ausgewiesene Umsatz stammt aus Forschungsallianzen mit Roche/Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer und Merck KGaA, in denen laut Geschäftsbericht 10-K für 2025 ausdrücklich die „AI-native“ Plattform Recursion OS die vertraglich geschuldete Leistung erbringt.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Pursuant to the Amended CLA, we will use our artificial intelligence-driven, end-to-end integrated platform to discover and validate novel targets in the oncology and immunology therapeutic areas."
Nach der geänderten Kooperations- und Lizenzvereinbarung werden wir unsere von künstlicher Intelligenz getriebene, durchgängig integrierte Plattform nutzen, um neuartige Zielstrukturen in den Therapiegebieten Onkologie und Immunologie zu entdecken und zu validieren.
„The Recursion OS is a unified, AI-native operating system for drug discovery and development that integrates biology, chemistry, and clinical execution end-to-end."
Das Recursion OS ist ein einheitliches, von Grund auf KI-basiertes Betriebssystem für Wirkstoffforschung und -entwicklung, das Biologie, Chemie und klinische Umsetzung durchgängig zusammenführt.
„In January 2022, we entered a strategic research collaboration with Sanofi to develop an AI-driven pipeline of precision-engineered, small molecule medicines."
Im Januar 2022 sind wir eine strategische Forschungskooperation mit Sanofi eingegangen, um eine KI-getriebene Pipeline präzise entworfener niedermolekularer Medikamente zu entwickeln.
„Operating revenue is generated through research and development agreements derived from strategic alliances."
Der operative Umsatz entsteht aus Forschungs- und Entwicklungsvereinbarungen, die aus strategischen Allianzen hervorgehen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-05 · 10-Q 2025-05-05 · 10-K 2025-02-28
Rated on July 29, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 141.7% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Hold
- Analyst Ratings
- 8
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.92 | -1.00 – -0.84 | 65 | 36.2% | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.94 | -1.22 – -0.83 | 84 | -2.5% | 7 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.25 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.53 | – | 5 | -57.50 | -3,966.00 | -115 | -117 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.50 | – | 15 | 9.30 | -1,373.30 | -132 | -134 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.41 | – | 19 | 32.60 | -899.80 | -76 | -80 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.36 | – | 5 | -80.20 | -3,135.30 | -117 | -118 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.21 | – | 36 | 687.80 | -304.20 | -46 | -47 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.22 | – | 7 | -56.10 | -1,815.60 | -81 | -81 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | -62 | -63 | -0.38 | -57 | -124 | 101 |
| 2020 | 3 | -85 | -87 | -0.52 | -45 | -206 | 299 |
| 2021 | 10 | -183 | -178 | -1.05 | -159 | 543 | 610 |
| 2022 | 40 | -246 | -239 | -1.36 | -84 | 486 | 701 |
| 2023 | 44 | -350 | -328 | -1.58 | -288 | 463 | 654 |
| 2024 | 59 | -479 | -464 | -1.69 | -359 | 1,035 | 1,449 |
| 2025 | 75 | -648 | -645 | -1.44 | -372 | 1,131 | 1,474 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
As of March 31, 2026 the company held $665.2 million of cash including restricted cash and $1,024.8 million of equity against virtually no financial debt ($18.7 million as of December 31, 2025). At the latest quarterly operating cash burn of $81.1 million that covers roughly eight quarters; the company itself guides to a runway into early 2028.
Revenue does not cover its own direct cost: in all four separately reported quarters to date, cost of revenue was higher — Q1 2025 ($14.7 million against $21.8 million), Q2 2025 ($19.2 million against $20.2 million), Q3 2025 ($5.2 million against $14.7 million) and Q1 2026 ($6.5 million against $12.5 million). The $3.7 million full-year 2025 gross profit ($74.7 million minus $71.0 million) derives entirely from the closing quarter. Quarterly revenue fell 56 percent as Roche project phases ran out.
The share count (Class A, B and Exchangeable) rose from 191.0 million at the end of 2022 to 530.8 million as of March 31, 2026; 99.9 million shares were added in 2025 alone for net proceeds of $491.7 million. A further $300 million sales facility — roughly 19 percent of the market value of about $1.6 billion (data as of July 28, 2026) — sat untouched and available as of March 31, 2026.
The auditor judged internal control over financial reporting not effective as of December 31, 2025; the weaknesses from the Exscientia acquisition date back to fiscal year 2024 and were still considered unremediated as of March 31, 2026. The financial statements themselves received an unqualified opinion, and only an immaterial error has resulted so far. Co-founder Christopher Gibson left the board at the annual meeting on June 17, 2026.
There is a first clinical signal from the company's own platform: in the Phase 2 readout, REC-4881 reduced polyp burden in FAP by a median of 43 percent at week 13 and 53 percent at week 25, and engagement with the FDA on a registrational path is under way. At the same time three clinical programs were halted in May 2025, and no compound has an approval.
Roche and Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer and Merck KGaA have together provided more than $500 million of upfront and milestone payments, most recently $30 million in October 2025. The "over $20 billion" of potential further milestones named in the annual report is fully constrained for accounting purposes; the Roche contract carries a transaction price of $210.0 million. In 2025 two customers accounted for substantially all operating revenue.
Recursion is the anchoring trap in pure form: the annual report names the possibility of over $20 billion of future milestones — and right beside it stands $74.7 million of revenue (2025), a $644.8 million net loss and a first quarter of 2026 in which $6.5 million of revenue carried $12.5 million of direct cost. The balance sheet is robust, with $665.2 million of liquidity and almost no debt, and the company guides to a runway into early 2028; it was paid for with a share count that grew from 191.0 million to 530.8 million, and a further $300 million facility stands ready to draw. Add a control system without an auditor's opinion and a founder who has left both the executive suite and the board. Not investment advice.
- Research hook: a price-to-sales ratio of about 24 alongside quarterly revenue down 56 percent (data as of July 28, 2026), plus the striking cluster of Form 144 notices in the SEC filing history since July 2026.
- Data basis: annual report on Form 10-K for 2025 (filed February 25, 2026), quarterly report on Form 10-Q as of March 31, 2026 (filed May 6, 2026), plus the 10-Q reports as of June 30 and September 30, 2025 for the quarterly series, and every filing submitted afterwards through July 27, 2026. The market value from the fundamental data was cross-checked against share count times the sale price documented in the Form 144 (deviation below one percent).
- Possible confusion: Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was named Recursion Pharmaceuticals, LLC before the IPO — the same entity after a pure change of legal form, not a successor company. Exscientia plc, the British drug designer acquired in 2024, has not been separately listed since.
- The "over $20 billion" named in the annual report is the sum of theoretically achievable milestones across all partnership contracts and is fully constrained for accounting purposes — it is not a receivable and appears in no balance sheet line.
About the Company
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., ein Biotechnologieunternehmen in der klinischen Phase, beschäftigt sich mit der Entschlüsselung von Biologie und Chemie durch die Integration technologischer Innovationen aus Biologie, Chemie, Automatisierung, Datenwissenschaft und Engineering zur Industrialisierung der Wirkstoffforschung in den USA und in…
| CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.) | selling own stock |
|---|---|
| Employees | 600 |
| Headquarters | Salt Lake City, UT |
| Address | 41 South Rio Grande Street, 84101 Salt Lake City, United States |
| Phone | 385 269 0203 |
| Website | recursion.com |
| IPO Date | 16. Apr 2021 |
| ISIN | US75629V1044 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Najat Khan Ph.D. | CEO, President & Director | 1984 |
| Ben R. Taylor | CFO & President of Recursion UK | 1977 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7. Jul 2026 | Borgeson Blake | Director | Sell | 40,000 | 3.96 | 158,500 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.