Fermi Inc. (FRMI)
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We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Red here is not about a valuation question — it reflects a substance finding Fermi has documented itself: the quarterly report as of March 31, 2026 states, in its own words, "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern, because available resources do not cover planned spending over the next twelve months — an assessment the company, in the same report, says its own countermeasures alleviate, though explicitly without a guarantee of success and still listed as its own risk factor. On top of that sits a documented leadership crisis: the founder and CEO left the company in April 2026, then waged an open proxy fight for control of the board, a director resigned amid the dispute, and a securities class action alleges the company misled investors at the IPO about exactly the tenant risk that materialized a month later. The July 14, 2026 convertible notes bring real, additional capital on top of the measures already factored into the May filing. Whether the combination is actually enough will only be confirmed by the next report. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
A newsletter called Fermi a hidden gem in November 2025, penciling in a P/E ratio of 1.5 by 2030 and tenbagger potential. Eight months later, the company itself tells the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC, in its own quarterly report that substantial doubt exists about its ability to continue as a going concern, has lost its founder as CEO, and is fighting a class-action lawsuit — all while still reporting zero revenue since its founding in January 2025. We read what has actually happened to that promise so far.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at FRMI since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 5.70 $ — 3% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
–Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available. How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 198.2% above the current price.
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.34 | -0.69 – -0.11 | 52 | 70.0% | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.37 | 0.05 – 0.59 | 1,145 | 207.8% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.06 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025: Q1 | 0.00 | – | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.02 | – | 0 | – | – | -3 | -45 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.74 | – | 0 | – | – | -6 | -59 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.21 | – | 0 | – | – | -26 | -499 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.30 | – | 0 | – | – | -7 | -449 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | -178 | -486 | -1.04 | -34 | 1,096 | 1,413 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
In its quarterly report as of March 31, 2026, Fermi itself states "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern: cash plus restricted cash totaling $243.3 million is not enough to cover planned spending over the next twelve months. The net financial position flipped from +$298.7 million to −$213.8 million within a single quarter (excluding $35.8 million of restricted cash; including it, −$178.0 million). Fermi itself states, in the same report, that its own plans (credit lines, equipment monetization) alleviate this doubt — without a guarantee of execution, and still listed as its own risk factor.
Total capital needs across all of Project Matador's construction phases are estimated by the company itself at $70 billion to $90 billion — 15 to 19 times today's market capitalization of roughly $4.7 billion (07/26/2026). As of March 31, 2026, there is still no signed lease; the first prospective tenant terminated its $150 million funding commitment in December 2025.
Founder and CEO Toby Neugebauer left the company on April 17, 2026, and then waged a — suspended in July 2026 — proxy fight for control of the board; a director he had designated resigned amid the dispute on July 10, 2026. Since July 20/22, 2026, an entirely new executive team has run the company, but still without a permanent CEO.
A securities class action, Lupia v. Fermi Inc. (Case No. 1:26-cv-00050, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York), has been pending since January 5, 2026, alleging misleading statements about tenant demand at the IPO — an allegation by the plaintiffs, which Fermi denies and says it intends to defend vigorously.
On July 14, 2026, Fermi raised $431.25 million through convertible notes (net proceeds of $416.8 million), in addition to $745.6 million of net IPO proceeds; against that stand $1,430.9 million of real property, plant, and equipment (turbines, substations) and a 99-year ground lease with the Texas Tech University System. This capital comes on top of the measures Fermi had already cited, in the same quarterly report, as alleviating the going-concern doubt.
A price-to-earnings ratio doesn't exist without revenue; on a book-value basis, the stock costs roughly 4.4 times equity per share (data as of 07/26/2026), at a price just under two-thirds below the $21.00 IPO price (10/02/2025). The capped-call hedges on the convertible notes treat a doubling to the $14.64 cap price as a possibility, not an expectation — without attaching a timeframe.
Fermi Inc. has poured more than a billion dollars into a real construction project within a year and a half — but still reports zero revenue, has no signed lease, and its own quarterly report states "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern — doubt that Fermi, in the same report, says its own plans alleviate, though explicitly without a guarantee of success. On top of that come the founder's departure as CEO, a months-long proxy fight for control of the board, and a pending securities class action. The July 2026 convertible notes provide additional capital on top of management's own plan. Not investment advice.
- The hook for this analysis is issue 24 of the "Hot Stocks Europe" newsletter dated November 28, 2025 (reader submission); every company figure comes from the SEC filings and fundamental data, not from the newsletter. The newsletter itself discloses a conflict of interest: the publisher, author, or related third parties may hold positions in the securities discussed and intend to sell into rising prices (EU Market Abuse Regulation No. 596/2014).
- Data as of: SEC filings through the Form 10-Q as of March 31, 2026 (filed May 15, 2026), plus required disclosures (Form 8-K) through July 23, 2026; market data (market capitalization, price-to-book) as of July 26, 2026.
- Not to be confused: Fermi Inc. trades on the Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange, each in U.S. dollars (not pence); its German secondary listings (tickers H3V and A41MPN) trade in euros and are outside the scope of this analysis.
About the Company
| Employees | 35 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Amarillo, TX |
| Address | 620 S. Taylor St., 79101 Amarillo, United States |
| Phone | 214 894 7855 |
| Website | fermiamerica.com |
| IPO Date | 1. Oct 2025 |
| ISIN | US3149111086 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jacobo Ortiz Blanes | Co-President & COO | 1972 |
| Charles Lynn Hamilton | Chief Site Officer | 1974 |
| Anna Bofa | Co-President | 1988 |
| Robert L. Masson II | Chief Financial Officer | 1971 |
| Rodrigo Acuna | Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Sezin Uzman | VP of Nuclear Supply Chain & Compliance | – |
| George Wentz | General Counsel | – |
| Lawrence M. Kellerman | Chief Power Officer & Director | 1966 |
| Mesut Uzman | Chief Nuclear Officer | 1974 |
| John W Donovan Jr. | Executive Vice President of Capital Markets | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.