Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Quality confirmed: earning power and balance sheet carry the rating — a 41 percent return on equity, a 57.7 percent gross margin, $1.91 billion in cash and no drawn bank loans. Nothing in the 10-K points to a substance problem. What is open is growth quality, not solvency: U.S. revenue at zero growth, the HOKA staircase leading downward and tariff costs as a lucky bag press the earnings, not the equity base. A stabilizing home market or a 2026 holiday quarter confirming UGG demand would answer that. The rating says nothing about the entry price — that is what the metrics scanners answer. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Deckers Outdoor earned more than a billion dollars for the first time in fiscal year 2026 (through March 31) — carried by exactly two brands: HOKA and UGG account for 97.3 percent of revenue. At the same time the stock trades more than half below its early-2025 high, and no fewer than three of our value scanners light up, first among them Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula. We ran the cross-check — in the annual report (10-K) and the quarterly reports (10-Q): this time the value label is genuine. But the original also shows what the red price tag conceals: a U.S. market that has practically stalled, a HOKA growth staircase that leads downward, and tariffs gnawing at the margin. Not investment advice — just a fitting at the original document before the clearance-sale reflex grabs hold.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at DECK since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 96.90 $ — 39% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIGeprüft am 14.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2026 (eingereicht 22.05.2026), den 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 (23.05.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt 03.02.2026): Deckers Outdoor verkauft keine KI-Produkte — das Geschäft sind Schuhe, Bekleidung und Accessoires der Marken HOKA, UGG und Teva. Die Berichte belegen aber einen zunehmenden operativen KI-Einsatz: Der 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2026 widmet den Risiken aus der eigenen KI-Nutzung einen eigenen Risikofaktor und hält fest, dass das Unternehmen und seine Dienstleister KI, Datenanalyse und maschinelles Lernen zunehmend über das gesamte Geschäft hinweg einsetzen (operative und IT-Systeme, digitale Plattformen, Geschäftsprozesse). Der 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 beschreibt KI-gestützte Systeme (einschließlich generativer KI) in der Datensicherheit, und im Wettbewerbskapitel nennt Deckers die Nutzung von Datenanalyse und KI als Wettbewerbsfaktor der Branche. Eine konkrete Bedrohung des eigenen Geschäftsmodells durch KI beschreiben die Filings nicht; die vier 10-Q enthalten neben einer Boilerplate-Zeile zu Technologie-Fortschritten keine substanziellen KI-Aussagen. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog: „Nutzt KI".
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We and our third-party service providers are increasingly using AI, data analytics, and machine learning technologies across our business, including operational and IT systems, digital platforms, and certain business processes."
Wir und unsere externen Dienstleister setzen zunehmend KI, Datenanalyse- und Machine-Learning-Technologien in unserem gesamten Geschäft ein — einschließlich operativer und IT-Systeme, digitaler Plattformen und bestimmter Geschäftsprozesse.
„As a result, we believe our future success and growth depends, in part, on the ability of our systems, including those utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) such as generative AI, to prevent the theft, loss, misuse, or unauthorized access of this information, and to respond quickly and effectively if data security incidents occur."
Wir sind daher überzeugt, dass unser künftiger Erfolg und unser Wachstum zum Teil von der Fähigkeit unserer Systeme abhängen — einschließlich derjenigen, die Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) wie generative KI nutzen —, Diebstahl, Verlust, Missbrauch oder unbefugten Zugriff auf diese Informationen zu verhindern und bei Datensicherheitsvorfällen schnell und wirksam zu reagieren.
„Competition in our markets is influenced by factors such as brand recognition, product innovation and performance, pricing, speed‑to‑market, marketing effectiveness, use of data analytics and AI, access to manufacturing capacity, and control of distribution channels."
Der Wettbewerb in unseren Märkten wird von Faktoren beeinflusst wie Markenbekanntheit, Produktinnovation und -leistung, Preisgestaltung, Markteinführungsgeschwindigkeit, Marketing-Wirksamkeit, dem Einsatz von Datenanalyse und KI, dem Zugang zu Fertigungskapazitäten und der Kontrolle über Vertriebskanäle.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-02-03 · 10-Q 2025-10-31 · 10-Q 2025-07-31 · 10-Q 2025-02-03 · 10-K 2026-05-22 · 10-K 2025-05-23
Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable delivers, sparse detailAcross the ten transcripts reviewed, from fiscal 2024-Q4 to fiscal 2027-Q1, Deckers met or beat every guidance figure it issued — annual and quarterly, on revenue, gross margin and earnings per share. CFO Steve Fasching conceded on the fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter call that the company is seen as a conservative guider. Checking the transcripts line by line confirmed no broken commitment: the only dated pledge — an update on the Koolaburra wind-down — was expressly tied to fiscal 2026 annual guidance, and that guidance was withheld entirely on the May call because of US tariff uncertainty. What remains is thin detail: store counts, store sales and order-book size are not quantified under an openly stated company practice, and the smaller brands were wound down as a block rather than explained one by one. No financial target was missed, so the rating stays unremarkable.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
Guidance met or beaten ten quarters running
The fiscal 2025 guidance issued on the 2024-Q4 call called for roughly 10 percent revenue growth to 4.7 billion dollars, a 53.5 percent gross margin and earnings per share of 29.50 to 30.00 dollars. The 2025-Q4 call reported 16 percent growth to 4.99 billion dollars, a 57.9 percent gross margin and earnings per share more than a quarter above the original top end, with the outlook raised on every interim call (2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3). The same pattern repeated: 890 to 910 million dollars of quarterly revenue guided (2025-Q4), 965 million delivered (2026-Q1); a 53.5 to 54 percent gross margin guided (2026-Q1), 56.2 percent delivered (2026-Q2); 5.35 billion dollars of annual revenue and 6.30 to 6.39 dollars of EPS guided (2026-Q2), 5.47 billion and 7.02 dollars delivered (2026-Q4). Fiscal 2027 started the same way, with 0.94 dollars against a 0.82 to 0.87 dollar range. Asked whether the new multi-year framework was set conservatively too, Fasching gave a two-part answer on the 2026-Q4 call: 'we have been viewed as conservative guiders' — but he would not call the framework through fiscal 2030 a conservative guide, saying the company is leaning in more than in the past. The practical read: when this management lowers an expectation — HOKA from mid-teens to low teens on the 2026-Q2 call — it tends to mean caution rather than deterioration; HOKA finished fiscal 2026 up 16 percent.
The 50-50 channel goal has no date
The goal of a 50-50 split between direct-to-consumer and wholesale appears almost verbatim on the 2025-Q1, 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q2 calls — without a target date being named on any of the ten calls. The obvious charge, that the company quietly reversed its door plan, does not survive checking: on the 2025-Q3 call Caroti announced 'a few more doors, especially internationally' and Fasching specified 'continued expansion, not the extent this year that you saw last year' — which is what happened, as the 2026-Q2 call confirms ('last year was a big year of wholesale expansion ... some additional wholesale expansion this year, but that will begin to slow'). That wholesale still grew faster in fiscal 2026, per the 2026-Q4 call — HOKA 18 percent against 12 percent in DTC, UGG 13 against 4 — was explained by the carry-over of doors opened the year before and by shoppers wanting to try the new models in store, framed explicitly as 'this is not a change in our strategy' (2025-Q4). The sober point stands: the mix moved away from the stated goal for two years before the fiscal 2027 plan reversed direction, with 2027-Q1 delivering 13 percent DTC growth against slower wholesale.
Smaller brands wound down as a block
On the 2025-Q3 call CEO Stefano Caroti announced the wind-down of the Koolaburra brand and pledged: 'We will provide a more complete update on this forthcoming change during our earnings call in May as part of our forward-looking guidance for fiscal year 2026'. The May call, 2025-Q4, indeed never mentions the brand — but that call also withheld fiscal 2026 annual guidance entirely, the very vehicle the update was tied to, with tariff uncertainty set out at length as the reason on the same call. The condition attached to the pledge therefore never occurred. The substance arrived late but verifiably: on the 2026-Q3 call Fasching attributes the decline in the remaining brands explicitly to the Koolaburra phase-out and points to the breakout in the press release, and the 2027-Q1 call quantifies the expected decline of those brands at about 50 percent. Communication on the individual side brands stays thin: Teva is last named on 2025-Q3, Ahnu only on 2025-Q1, and from 2026-Q2 the shrinkage appears only as 'winding down stand-alone operations of smaller brands'. HOKA apparel, called a 'key priority' on the 2025-Q1 call, still has neither a named product nor a figure by 2027-Q1, yet it did not vanish: it is listed as one of five growth categories on the 2026-Q2, 2026-Q4 and 2027-Q1 calls — with the caveat that, per Caroti on 2026-Q4, the multi-year framework contains no new categories.
Store count and order book stay unquantified
On three topics the company consistently declines: the number of its own HOKA stores and the run-specialty share of wholesale (2025-Q3), the size of the order book (2026-Q2 and 2026-Q4), and retail store sales versus e-commerce (2026-Q1). The reason given is always the same openly stated company practice, applied consistently. The most persistent exchange came on the 2026-Q1 call: the same analyst asked three times how the owned stores compared with e-commerce; Fasching declined and Caroti offered only that retail performed significantly better. For balance: the analyst himself twice called the figure immaterial, and management described its own store base as very small — the DTC weakness was explained by consumers buying in wholesale doors, not in Deckers stores. There is no blanket refusal to inform: on the 2025-Q1 call Caroti named the new wholesale partners outright (DSG, JD, Intersport, Foot Locker, Top Sport, Sport Chek) and Erinn Kohler gave wholesale revenue by brand to the dollar, while the 2027-Q1 call does not contain the word 'door' at all. From the 2026-Q3 call the company also discloses channel penetration ratios (quantified on 2026-Q4: US sporting goods 50 percent, athletic specialty 25 percent), and margin bridges are routinely broken out in basis points (2025-Q3, 2027-Q1).
Guidance suspended for two quarters, tariff estimate swung widely, tone more open
Because of US trade policy, Deckers withheld full-year guidance entirely on the 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 calls, offering only a framework plus quarterly outlooks; annual guidance returned on the 2026-Q2 call. The estimated unmitigated tariff burden ran from up to 150 million dollars (2025-Q4) to 185 million (2026-Q1), back to about 150 million (2026-Q2), then down to about 110 million (2026-Q3); the 2026-Q4 call put the amount actually paid at about 120 million, with refunds applied for and deliberately excluded from guidance. Every revision came with a stated cause. The tonal shift in between is notable: on the 2026-Q1 call management for the first time spoke of its own 'execution challenges' and changed product life cycles, and on the 2026-Q2 call Caroti openly called it a learning year because too many major launches had been bunched into the first half. From the 2026-Q3 call the record-setting language returns, and on the 2026-Q4 call the company published a multi-year framework through fiscal 2030 for the first time. The quarterly outlooks given since 2025-Q4 are expressly framed as an exception ('While it is not our practice to provide quarterly guidance ... In light of the current environment') and were justified again each later time (2026-Q1: 'elevated macro uncertainty'; 2027-Q1: 'unique operational timing dynamics'); the 2026-Q2 call gave no quarterly outlook at all and the 2026-Q3 call only fourth-quarter assumptions inside its annual guidance.
Management promises
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2024-Q4 kept
Fiscal 2025: about 10 percent revenue growth to 4.7 billion dollars, HOKA up about 20 percent, EPS of 29.50 to 30.00 dollars.
Comfortably beaten: 16 percent growth to 4.99 billion dollars, HOKA up 24 percent, EPS roughly a quarter above the top end (2025-Q4 call).
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2025-Q1 open
Long term, direct-to-consumer is to reach about 50 percent of company revenue; the goal is restated on the 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q2 calls.
No target date. In fiscal 2026 wholesale outgrew DTC at both brands, moving the mix away from the goal; the fiscal 2027 plan reverses direction and 2027-Q1 delivered 13 percent DTC growth.
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2025-Q3 open
A complete update on the Koolaburra wind-down would be given on the May call — expressly 'as part of our forward-looking guidance for fiscal year 2026'.
The May call (2025-Q4) does not mention the brand, but it also withheld fiscal 2026 annual guidance entirely — the condition attached to the pledge never occurred, and the reason (US tariffs) was set out on that same call. Delivered later: the 2026-Q3 call attributes the decline in the remaining brands to Koolaburra and the 2027-Q1 call puts it at about minus 50 percent. Not provable as a breach, merely late.
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2025-Q4 kept
About half of the tariff burden of up to 150 million dollars would be recaptured through price increases and cost sharing with suppliers.
Beaten: the 2026-Q2 call cites 75 to 95 million dollars of mitigation and the 2026-Q3 call only about 25 million dollars of net impact. Price rises effective 1 July 2025 caused no order-book changes per the 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 calls.
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2025-Q4 kept
The weakness in HOKA US direct-to-consumer would improve after the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
The recovery arrived step by step as signalled: HOKA DTC up 8 percent on the 2026-Q2 call, up 19 percent with the US explicitly back to growth on 2026-Q3, and up 18 percent on 2026-Q4.
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2026-Q2 kept
Fiscal 2026: about 5.35 billion dollars of revenue, gross margin of about 56 percent, EPS of 6.30 to 6.39 dollars.
Beaten: 5.47 billion dollars, a 57.7 percent gross margin and 7.02 dollars of EPS (2026-Q4 call), above even the raised guidance from the 2026-Q3 call.
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2026-Q4 open
Fiscal 2027: revenue of 5.86 to 5.91 billion dollars and EPS of 7.30 to 7.45 dollars; a multi-year framework to fiscal 2030 with high single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit EPS growth.
First checkpoint passed: the 2027-Q1 call reported 0.94 dollars against the quarterly range and raised full-year EPS guidance to 7.35 to 7.50 dollars, even as the assumed tariff rate rose from 10 to 12.5 percent.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 26.7% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 24
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2027 | 7.53 | 7.37 – 7.99 | 5,885 | 7.3% | 21 |
| 03/31/2028 | 8.40 | 7.65 – 9.45 | 6,316 | 11.0% | 21 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 1.79 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 3.00 | 19.00 | 1,827 | 17.10 | 25.00 | 1,095 | 1,071 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.99 | 20.30 | 1,022 | 6.50 | 14.80 | -73 | -89 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.93 | 23.50 | 965 | 16.90 | 14.40 | 36 | 12 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.80 | 13.70 | 1,431 | 9.10 | 18.70 | 8 | -14 |
| 2025: Q4 | 3.27 | 9.10 | 1,958 | 7.10 | 24.60 | 1,042 | 1,020 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.96 | -3.40 | 1,114 | 9.00 | 12.20 | 96 | 163 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.94 | 1.10 | 1,020 | 5.70 | 12.80 | 48 | 33 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,790 | -2 | 6 | 0.03 | 199 | 954 | 1,192 |
| 2018 | 1,903 | 223 | 114 | 0.60 | 327 | 941 | 1,264 |
| 2019 | 2,020 | 327 | 264 | 1.47 | 360 | 1,045 | 1,427 |
| 2020 | 2,133 | 338 | 276 | 1.60 | 286 | 1,140 | 1,765 |
| 2021 | 2,546 | 504 | 383 | 2.24 | 596 | 1,444 | 2,168 |
| 2022 | 3,150 | 565 | 452 | 2.71 | 172 | 1,539 | 2,332 |
| 2023 | 3,627 | 653 | 517 | 3.23 | 537 | 1,766 | 2,556 |
| 2024 | 4,288 | 928 | 760 | 4.86 | 1,033 | 2,107 | 3,136 |
| 2025 | 4,986 | 1,179 | 966 | 6.33 | 1,045 | 2,513 | 3,633 |
| 2026 | 5,454 | 1,245 | 1,024 | 7.02 | 1,182 | 2,500 | 3,688 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
HOKA and UGG are global brands with genuine pricing power: 57.7 percent gross margin, 23.1 percent operating margin, 41 percent return on equity — earnings per share have more than doubled since fiscal year 2023, from $3.23 to $7.02 (10-K, fiscal year 2026).
$1.91 billion in cash, no drawn bank loans, goodwill of only $14 million; buybacks of $1.08 billion in fiscal year 2026 and an authorization topped up to about $4.84 billion (May 2026) — roughly a third of the market value. No dividend since the IPO.
The Greenblatt hit survives the cross-check (return-on-capital approximation about 27.8 percent against a threshold of 25; P/E about 15), flanked by Levermann (4 points) and Buffett's owner-earnings yield. Net of the cash, the operating business costs about twelve times annual earnings (data as of July 8, 2026).
U.S. revenue grew only 0.2 percent in fiscal year 2026 — all growth came from abroad (+26.8 percent). HOKA's growth staircase leads downward (27.9 → 23.6 → 15.9 percent), UGG grew only 4.9 percent in the holiday quarter; Stage 1 and a relative strength of 34 show the market has priced that in.
Two brands carry 97.3 percent of revenue in an industry with a declared fashion risk; manufacturing concentrates on Vietnam and Indonesia, the UGG sheepskin on two tanneries in China. Tariffs have already pressed the gross margin, and per the 10-K the margin protection may not be repeatable in fiscal year 2027.
Deckers is the rare case in which the value signal survives the recalculation: a debt-free two-brand group with a record profit above the billion, a 41 percent return on equity and a P/E around 15 — net of cash, about twelve times earnings. But the discount has nameable reasons: the U.S. market stagnates at plus 0.2 percent, HOKA's growth staircase leads downward, UGG remains a question of fashion, and tariffs as well as sourcing clusters (Vietnam/Indonesia, two tanneries) make the crown-jewel gross margin vulnerable. The market is pricing in stagnation; any stabilization of the home market would be a positive surprise — any fashion turn at UGG or HOKA an expensive one. Not investment advice.
- Unlike the Kirby case (a data error), the Greenblatt hit here survives the cross-check against the 10-K figures; the calculation is disclosed in the text. The scanner row is documented in the screenshot (data as of July 8, 2026, confirmed live on July 14, 2026).
- Deckers has an offset fiscal year (ending March 31): "fiscal year 2026" = April 2025 through March 2026. All balance-sheet and earnings figures come from the SEC filings (10-K, filed 22.05.2026; 10-Q as of 31.12.2025, filed 03.02.2026) and are dated in the text; valuation figures carry the data cut-off of July 8, 2026.
- Analyst estimates ($7.49 and $8.33 in earnings per share for fiscal years 2027/2028) are consensus forecasts of 24 professionals, not facts — with consumer brands, estimates have historically been revised heavily after fashion turns.
- Possible tariff refunds after the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling are carried at zero in the books (as of 31.03.2026) — a potential but uncertain one-off effect; size and timing are open.
About the Company
Deckers Outdoor Corporation entwirft, vermarktet und vertreibt mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften Schuhe, Bekleidung und Accessoires für den Freizeit-Lifestyle und Hochleistungsaktivitäten in den USA und international. Das Unternehmen bietet Schuhe, Bekleidung und Accessoires unter Marken wie UGG an.
| Employees | 6,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Goleta, CA |
| Address | 250 Coromar Drive, 93117 Goleta, United States |
| Phone | 805 967 7611 |
| Website | deckers.com |
| IPO Date | 14. Oct 1993 |
| ISIN | US2435371073 |
| Stock Split | 6:1 on 09/17/2024 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Stefano Caroti | CEO, President & Director | 1963 |
| Thomas Garcia J.D. | Chief Administrative & Legal Officer | 1973 |
| Erinn Kohler | Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Planning | – |
| Melissa Gallagher | Chief People Officer | – |
| Angela Ogbechie | Chief Supply Chain Officer | 1978 |
| Marco Ellerker | President of Global Marketplace | 1967 |
| Joel Ankarberg | Chief Digital & Data Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.