Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Yellow, because the company is substantively healthy while one material operating question stays open. On the side of substance: $255.8 million of operating cash flow in 2025, income from operations covering interest expense about 3.7 times over, maturities not until 2029 and 2032, covenants met, and positive equity of $272.0 million — none of that points to the kind of balance-sheet risk that would turn the light red. Against green: earnings for the coming years hang on individual signatures. The terminated customer carried roughly 29 to 30 percent of 2025 segment profit, its replacement contract so far exists only as an agreement on key terms at expressly worse conditions, and two further large customers worth 21.9 percent of quarterly revenue are up for renegotiation within 18 months. Add an interim chief executive and $424.4 million of goodwill in the affected segment, more than the entire equity base. The low share price argues neither way — it is a price, not a quality attribute. Green turns yellow the moment the decisive number of the coming years sits in a document still being negotiated. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
On May 26, 2026, Avis Budget Group terminated its contract with Verra Mobility. Two months later the company announced agreement on the key terms of a new seven-year contract — and wrote in the same breath that those terms would be "materially less favorable." The numbers behind it are uncomfortable: the departing customer accounted for $135 million to $145 million of annualized revenue but $120 million to $125 million of annualized segment profit — roughly 29 to 30 percent of all segment profit in 2025. Add an interim chief executive since May 31, 2026, two more large customers whose contracts come up for renewal within 18 months, and $183.6 million of buybacks at about $22 a share shortly before the stock collapsed. Not investment advice — just the question of who draws the line under this story: the company or you.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 29, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at VRRM since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 2 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 5.30 $ — 7% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIVerra Mobility setzt KI nach eigener Darstellung ein, um Geschäftsprozesse und ausgewählte Teile der eigenen Lösungen zu verbessern, und baut diese Fähigkeiten weiter aus — als eigene Umsatzquelle taucht KI in Geschäfts- und Quartalsberichten dagegen nirgends auf.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We utilize artificial intelligence (“AI”) to enhance our business process functions and select aspects of our solutions."
Wir setzen künstliche Intelligenz (‚KI‘) ein, um unsere Geschäftsprozessfunktionen und ausgewählte Aspekte unserer Lösungen zu verbessern.
„Our products, services, and business operations increasingly incorporate AI, and we continue to invest in the expansion of our AI capabilities, including through enhancements to existing, and development of new, AI-enabled features and functionality."
Unsere Produkte, Dienstleistungen und Geschäftsabläufe binden zunehmend KI ein, und wir investieren weiter in den Ausbau unserer KI-Fähigkeiten — unter anderem durch Verbesserungen bestehender und die Entwicklung neuer KI-gestützter Funktionen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2025-10-29 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2026-02-24 · 10-K 2025-02-27
Rated on July 29, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 86.0% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 7
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 1.23 | 1.19 – 1.31 | 989 | -7.0% | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1.02 | 0.85 – 1.21 | 946 | -16.8% | 8 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.30 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.41 | -2,376.50 | 222 | 5.00 | -30.10 | 41 | 22 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.20 | 15.50 | 223 | 6.40 | 14.50 | 63 | 42 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.24 | 17.70 | 236 | 6.10 | 16.30 | 75 | 40 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.29 | 39.70 | 262 | 16.10 | 17.90 | 78 | 49 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.12 | – | 258 | 16.40 | 7.30 | 40 | 6 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.17 | -12.80 | 224 | 0.10 | 12.00 | 40 | 9 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 231 | 48 | 29 | 0.72 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0.03 | 2 | 5 | 404 |
| 2018 | 370 | 13 | -58 | -0.67 | 46 | 302 | 1,345 |
| 2019 | 449 | 96 | 17 | 0.11 | 134 | 310 | 1,407 |
| 2020 | 394 | 38 | -5 | -0.03 | 47 | 316 | 1,367 |
| 2021 | 551 | 112 | 41 | 0.25 | 193 | 260 | 1,837 |
| 2022 | 742 | 165 | 92 | 0.58 | 218 | 231 | 1,756 |
| 2023 | 817 | 189 | 57 | 0.36 | 206 | 421 | 1,790 |
| 2024 | 879 | 136 | 31 | 0.19 | 224 | 265 | 1,614 |
| 2025 | 979 | 238 | 137 | 0.85 | 256 | 293 | 1,646 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The Commercial Services segment turned $435.8 million of 2025 revenue into $282.5 million of segment profit — a 64.8 percent margin and roughly 68 percent of total segment profit of $415.9 million. Group-wide, 2025 delivered $979.1 million of revenue, $136.6 million of net income and $255.8 million of operating cash flow.
Three Commercial Services customers (13.3 / 11.9 / 10.0 percent) plus the New York City Department of Transportation (15.2 percent) brought roughly half of consolidated revenue in the first quarter of 2026. Per the quarterly report filed May 6, 2026, the contracts of the two remaining large Commercial Services customers come up for renewal discussions within 18 months.
The May 26, 2026 termination costs, by the company's own figures, $135 million to $145 million of annualized revenue and $120 million to $125 million of annualized segment profit — roughly 29 to 30 percent of 2025 segment profit. The July 28, 2026 agreement covers only the commercial key terms of a seven-year contract, leaves Avis Budget the option to insource selectively and is expressly "materially less favorable."
As of March 31, 2026, $1,055.6 million of debt stood against $272.0 million of equity; maturities fall in 2029 and 2032, all covenants were met, and 2025 income from operations covered interest expense about 3.7 times over. The risk sits in $741.2 million of goodwill, of which $424.4 million is in the affected segment — in 2024 the company already wrote off $97.1 million in Parking Solutions.
Chief executive change effective May 31, 2026 (filled on an interim basis), departure of the Government Solutions head on July 9, 2026, board reduced from seven directors to six, retention awards for executives. Beforehand the company had repurchased $183.6 million of its own shares between October 2025 and March 2026 at an average of roughly $22.27 — barely three months before the termination. In June 2026 the departed chief executive filed two Form 144 notices for proposed sales of 1,008,472 shares in total, with a stated market value of roughly $4.47 million; no Form 4 confirming execution had been filed as of July 29, 2026.
Verra Mobility earns its money from the paperwork of driving, and it does so with unusual profitability: $979.1 million of revenue, $136.6 million of net income and $255.8 million of operating cash flow in 2025, plus a 64.8 percent segment margin in the rental car business. That is also where the weakness lies: four customers recently brought roughly half of revenue, and the most profitable of them terminated on May 26, 2026 — it accounted for $135 million to $145 million of revenue but $120 million to $125 million of segment profit. The July 28, 2026 agreement keeps the relationship alive, but it is only an understanding on key terms and expressly on materially worse conditions. Whoever buys here is not buying a multiple but an open contract negotiation. Not investment advice.
- Verra Mobility reached our research list through the event radar, which pulls mandatory filings from the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC — specifically the Form 8-K under Item 7.01 filed on July 29, 2026 (event of July 28, 2026) announcing the agreement with Avis Budget. It was not a hit from any of our momentum or quality filters; those scanner lists are recomputed daily.
- Important context for the valuation metrics: the price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios (about 5 and about 0.65 as of July 28, 2026) rest on the trailing twelve months and therefore still contain the full Avis business. The revised 2026 guidance likewise contains Avis through September 2026 — the full annual impact of the termination only lands in 2027.
- Verra Mobility identifies the three large Commercial Services customers in its concentration note only as "Customer A, B and C" and attaches no names. That the magnitude of the Avis termination ($135 million to $145 million against $979.1 million of 2025 consolidated revenue, roughly 14 percent) matches the largest of those three is arithmetic by this analysis, not confirmation by the company.
About the Company
Verra Mobility Corporation bietet intelligente Mobilitätstechnologielösungen in den USA, Australien, Europa und Kanada an. Es ist in drei Segmenten tätig: Commercial Services, Government Solutions und Parking Solutions.
| Employees | 1,888 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Mesa, AZ |
| Address | 2046 Riverview Auto Drive, 85201 Mesa, United States |
| Phone | 480 443 7000 |
| Website | verramobility.com |
| IPO Date | 24. Mar 2017 |
| ISIN | US92511U1025 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Keyser | President & CEO | 1982 |
| Craig C. Conti | Executive VP & CFO | 1978 |
| Stacey Moser | Executive VP & Chief Customer Officer | 1978 |
| Hiten Patel | Chief Accounting Officer | 1982 |
| Jason Rivera | Chief Product and Technology Officer | – |
| Mark Zindler | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Kristen Young | Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.