JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
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Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
The substance is documented and it is not thin: a Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.1 percent against an 11.5 percent requirement, $303 billion of CET1 capital, $590 billion of total loss-absorbing capacity, roughly $1.5 trillion of liquidity sources and a Stress Capital Buffer locked in through September 2027. All four segments make money, return on equity has been 17 to 18 percent three years running, book value per share is up 27 percent in two and a half years, and legal expense has fallen from $1.4 billion to $361 million. There is no going concern issue, no negative equity, no accounting or governance break here — hence green. That expressly does not mean the latest quarter is a benchmark: a fifth of reported profit came from Visa shares and equity revaluations, core lending has been flat for two years, growth is coming from trading, and loan losses have risen for three years. The stock is also not cheap at roughly 2.7 times book with the price near its 52-week high — that is a price argument, and it does not set this rating. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
JPMorgan Chase reported net income of $21,155 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, up 41 percent year over year. The bank itself then subtracts $4.2 billion after tax: gains on Visa shares and equity investments that will not repeat in this form. That leaves $16.9 billion. We take the record apart item by item, with the filing reference alongside each one.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 29, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at JPM since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 351.80 $ — 93% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
ThreatenedJPMorgan Chase verkauft keine KI-Produkte, benennt aber im Geschäftsbericht 2025 einen eigenen Risikofaktor zu fortgeschrittenen Technologien und darin konkret die Verdrängung der direkten Kundenbeziehung durch autonom handelnde KI-Agenten sowie den Verlust von Marktanteilen an schneller adaptierende Wettbewerber.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„replacement or disintermediation of direct customer relationships if AI agents autonomously manage or intermediate financial decisions and product selection or other services for customers."
Ersetzung oder Verdrängung direkter Kundenbeziehungen, wenn KI-Agenten Finanzentscheidungen und die Produktauswahl oder andere Leistungen für Kunden eigenständig steuern oder vermitteln.
„If JPMorganChase does not keep pace with rapidly changing technological advances, including the adoption of generative AI, it risks losing clients and market share to competitors, which could negatively impact revenues, operating costs and its competitive position."
Hält JPMorganChase mit dem raschen technologischen Wandel — einschließlich der Einführung generativer KI — nicht Schritt, riskiert das Institut den Verlust von Kunden und Marktanteilen an Wettbewerber, was Erträge, Betriebskosten und die Wettbewerbsposition beeinträchtigen könnte.
„competitive disadvantage if competitors are able to deploy AI more quickly or effectively, potentially gaining advantages in cost efficiency, client and customer experience, or product innovation, which could result in a loss of market share to competitors"
Wettbewerbsnachteil, falls Wettbewerber KI schneller oder wirksamer einsetzen können und dadurch Vorteile bei Kosteneffizienz, Kundenerlebnis oder Produktinnovation erlangen, was zu einem Verlust von Marktanteilen an Wettbewerber führen könnte
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-13 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-11-04 · 10-Q 2025-08-05 · 10-K 2025-02-14 · 8-K 2026-07-14
Rated on July 29, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable Guidance updated openlyBetween 2024-Q1 and 2026-Q2, JPMorgan met or beat its numerical guidance without exception: net interest income and expense guidance were raised repeatedly, the card charge-off rate was cut twice, the pledge made in late 2024 to stop excess capital from growing was delivered, and the breakdown of non-bank financial institution lending floated in 2025-Q3 arrived one quarter later. What matters for the verdict is how the changes were communicated: every increase and every cut was named and explained in the very call in which it happened, the larger 2024 buybacks with the Visa proceeds and a six-month capital study, the smaller deposit expectation with the savings rate, equity markets and yield-seeking, the higher 2026 expense outlook with 6.5 billion dollars of revenue outperformance in the first half. The framing of the return target and the efficiency ratio as outputs is not new either: as early as 2024-Q2 the CFO called the 17 percent 'not a promise, not a guarantee'. Essentially one point stays open: across four quarters, the question of how much is spent on AI went unanswered by a number.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2 · As of August 2, 2026
Four quarters, no number on AI spend
From 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2, analysts asked in every single call about the size of AI and technology spending and the efficiency gains expected from it. In 2025-Q3 the CFO pointed to 'old-fashioned expense discipline' instead of measurable AI savings. In 2025-Q4 Mike Mayo asked twice in concrete terms, once about the 2026 technology budget and once about prior-year AI spending, and both times received no number but the statement that competitively sensitive detail would not be given, coupled with a request for trust. In 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 Dimon twice answered with the same argument: the benefit of AI accrues to the customer, not to the firm's margin. In fairness, the technology budget as a whole is known, Mayo himself cited 17 to 18 billion dollars on the call, and Dimon and the CFO explicitly pointed to the annual Company Update as the venue for detail. In 2026-Q2 a substantive answer did come: AI compute spending was trivial in the first half, is forecast to accelerate meaningfully in the second, stays trivial for the full year, was budgeted, and is not a driver of the raised expense outlook. Even so, no hard annual AI figure appeared in any of the four calls.
Deposit scenario halved in the open
For 2026, the consumer bank showed 6 percent deposit growth as the central case of a scenario slide at the May 2025 investor day; in 2025-Q2 the CFO built the number up step by step when asked, but in the same breath called it an 'all else being equal' figure, pointed to the counter-scenario with lower rates and closed by saying all else is never equal. Precisely those conditions turned: in 2025-Q3 deposits were flat for the quarter, the inflection point was 'pushed out a little bit' and explained with a lower savings rate, strong equity markets and rates above the forwards. In 2025-Q4 the expectation for 2026 was said to be clearly below the 6 percent scenario, in 2026-Q1 it became low to mid single digit and in 2026-Q2 low single digit, there explicitly confirmed as unchanged. Every step down was named openly in the relevant call and explained, and the drivers stayed the same across all four calls. About half of the original magnitude survived, but no promise was broken, a scenario was adjusted to the macro picture.
Buybacks raised, every step explained
In 2024-Q1, Jamie Dimon cited a buyback pace of 2 billion dollars per quarter and said he personally did not want to buy back much more 'at these current prices'. Net repurchases did rise to 4.9 billion (2024-Q2), 6 billion (2024-Q3) and 7.1 billion dollars (2025-Q1). The statement does not qualify as a commitment, however: asked exactly that question in 2024-Q2, the CFO said the firm does not want to be in the business of guiding on buybacks and reserves the right to change at any time, as its quarterly filing also states. He explained the 4.9 billion in the same call specifically as the proceeds of the Visa exchange offer being redeployed into JPMorgan stock rather than held as a highly correlated outside position. The step up in 2024-Q4 was explained openly with a six-month study and the goal of stopping the capital surplus from growing. The valuation argument was not quietly dropped either, it was voiced again in 2025-Q2, this time as 'almost three times tangible book'. What remains is a stance that changed as the price rose, with a stated reason at every step.
Return target unchanged and beaten
The 17 percent return on tangible common equity target stayed unchanged across all ten calls, and actual returns were consistently above it: 20 percent adjusted in 2024 and 2025, 23 percent in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The phrasing often read as a softening, that the target is an output, is not new in 2025-Q4: as early as 2024-Q2 the CFO told Mike Mayo, who asked about raising it, that the number has a range around it, is 'not a promise, not a guarantee' and can fluctuate, and tied it to a reasonable outcome on Basel III. The 2025-Q4 rationale is also shareholder-friendly rather than evasive: capital is deployed below a 17 percent marginal return because the alternative, buying back stock at almost three times tangible book, implies a much lower return. The firm has likewise called the efficiency ratio an output for years. The frequently cited 15 percent US retail deposit share was never a dated target: in 2024-Q3 it served as a benchmark showing that only a quarter of the 125 largest markets reach that share, paired with 30 to 40 basis points of share gain per year; in 2026-Q2 it was explicitly confirmed as unchanged. None of these targets was cut or withdrawn.
Over-earning thesis revised on record
From 2024-Q1 through 2024-Q3 the core message was that JPMorgan was structurally over-earning on net interest income, with an unsustainably high deposit margin. In 2024-Q2 management did say it was 'definitely too early' to end that narrative, but in the same passage the CFO named the reason for the milder outlook: two expected rate cuts instead of six. In 2024-Q4 the revision then appeared explicitly in the prepared remarks, saying normalisation was still expected 'although to a lesser extent than we previously thought'. The direct analyst question drew no dodge but a rationale: the gap between the policy rate and the rate paid on deposits remains elevated by historical standards, and whether that holds through the cycle is unclear. Dimon added that the firm had moved closer to normalised net interest income and credit, and the CFO noted that net interest income ex Markets was down year-on-year. From 2025 the term disappears but the substance does not: 2025-Q1 and 2025-Q2 report margin compression, 2025-Q4 a higher deposit margin again. Net interest income ex Markets was practically flat at roughly 91.5 billion (2024) and roughly 92 billion dollars (2025) despite a sharply larger balance sheet; only for 2026 is 96.5 billion expected.
Management promises
-
2024-Q1 kept
Net interest income ex Markets of roughly 89 billion dollars for full-year 2024.
The outlook was raised in two steps, to roughly 91 billion in 2024-Q2 and roughly 91.5 billion dollars in 2024-Q3, and no later call conceded a miss. Beaten, not missed.
-
2024-Q4 kept
The capital surplus is not to grow further; excess capital will be returned or deployed.
The CET1 ratio fell from 15.7 percent (2024-Q4) via 15.0 (2025-Q2) and 14.5 (2025-Q4) to 14.1 percent (2026-Q2), driven by higher buybacks, dividend increases from 1.25 to 1.65 dollars per quarter and growing risk-weighted assets. Clearly delivered.
-
2025-Q1 kept
2025 card net charge-off rate of roughly 3.6 percent, confirmed despite elevated recession concerns.
In 2025-Q3 the expectation was cut to roughly 3.3 percent on better delinquency trends, and in 2026-Q2 the 2026 outlook was cut from 3.4 to 3.2 percent. Guided conservatively and revised twice in shareholders' favor.
-
2025-Q2 open
6 percent consumer deposit growth for 2026 as the central case of the investor day scenarios, derived in detail when asked.
The CFO explicitly called the number an 'all else being equal' figure in the same call, pointed to the counter-scenario with lower rates and concluded that all else is never equal. When rates, the savings rate and equity markets moved differently, the expectation was lowered openly and with reasons in 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1; in 2026-Q2 it stood at low single digit and was confirmed as unchanged. Fiscal 2026 is still running, so no miss can be established, and it was never a firm commitment.
-
2025-Q3 kept
Pledge to break down non-bank financial institution lending by category and risk structure, after concrete questions on it had gone unanswered.
As early as 2025-Q4 a dedicated slide followed with a reconciliation from the regulatory definition (330 billion) to the firm's narrower definition (160 billion dollars), plus categories, structural features and loss history since 2018. In 2026-Q1 the private credit exposure was additionally quantified at roughly 50 billion dollars. Delivered within one quarter.
-
2025-Q4 open
2026 adjusted expense of roughly 105 billion dollars.
The number was revenue-dependent from the outset: when it was first given, Dimon said the expected revenue upside was in it and that if revenue did not come through, the number would be smaller. That is exactly how 2025 played out, when the outlook rose from 95 via 95.5 to 95.9 billion dollars on the stronger revenue environment. Of the increase to 107.5 billion in 2026-Q2, 1.5 billion is revenue-related expense already booked against 6.5 billion dollars of revenue outperformance in the first half, and 1 billion is planned for the second half. The fiscal year is still running, so no breach can be established.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 5.7% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 25
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 24.07 | 23.50 – 25.00 | 208,468 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 12/31/2027 | 24.80 | 23.55 – 25.65 | 212,454 | 3.0% | 12 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 5.90 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 4.93 | 54.50 | 67,007 | 8.20 | 20.90 | 147,758 | 147,758 |
| 2025: Q1 | 5.18 | 12.50 | 68,907 | 4.00 | 21.30 | -251,839 | -251,839 |
| 2025: Q2 | 5.36 | -14.40 | 69,914 | 3.10 | 21.40 | 29,547 | 29,547 |
| 2025: Q3 | 5.15 | 14.50 | 71,903 | 3.20 | 20.00 | -45,214 | -45,214 |
| 2025: Q4 | 4.66 | -5.40 | 69,609 | 3.90 | 18.70 | 368,373 | 368,373 |
| 2026: Q1 | 5.90 | 13.90 | 73,661 | 6.90 | 22.40 | -211,761 | -211,761 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 106,387 | 34,536 | 24,733 | 6.78 | 21,884 | 254,190 | 2,490,972 |
| 2017 | 114,579 | 35,900 | 24,441 | 6.83 | -10,827 | 255,693 | 2,533,600 |
| 2018 | 129,824 | 40,764 | 32,474 | 9.51 | 15,614 | 256,515 | 2,622,532 |
| 2019 | 142,515 | 44,866 | 36,431 | 11.28 | 4,092 | 261,330 | 2,687,379 |
| 2020 | 129,843 | 35,815 | 29,131 | 9.44 | -79,910 | 279,354 | 3,384,757 |
| 2021 | 127,238 | 59,562 | 48,334 | 15.97 | 78,084 | 294,127 | 3,743,567 |
| 2022 | 153,824 | 46,166 | 37,676 | 12.69 | 107,119 | 292,332 | 3,665,743 |
| 2023 | 236,273 | 61,612 | 49,552 | 16.84 | 12,974 | 327,878 | 3,875,393 |
| 2024 | 270,789 | 75,081 | 58,471 | 20.31 | -42,012 | 344,758 | 4,002,814 |
| 2025 | 279,745 | 72,595 | 57,048 | 20.42 | 100,867 | 362,438 | 4,424,900 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Four segments that all make money: in 2025 the Commercial & Investment Bank earned $27,761 million, Consumer & Community Banking $18,245 million and Asset & Wealth Management $6,522 million in net income. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 every segment set a revenue record; assets under management reached $5.1 trillion, up 18 percent, and JPMorgan ranked first in global investment banking fees with 9.3 percent wallet share (Form 8-K of July 14, 2026).
As of June 30, 2026 the Standardized CET1 ratio stood at 14.1 percent against an 11.5 percent requirement, CET1 capital at $303 billion and total loss-absorbing capacity at $590 billion. Liquidity sources totaled roughly $1.5 trillion as of March 31, 2026. Book value per share rose from $104.45 (2023) to $133.01 (June 30, 2026) — 27 percent in two and a half years (10-K 2025, 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026, Form 8-K of July 14, 2026).
From the $21,155 million of quarterly net income the bank itself subtracts $4.2 billion after tax — a $4.6 billion net gain on Visa shares previously carried at a nominal basis, and $1.0 billion from equity-investment revaluations. That is $1.56 per share and 6 percentage points of return on tangible common equity. 2024 already contained a $7.9 billion Visa gain (Form 8-K of July 14, 2026, 10-K 2025).
Net interest income excluding Markets stood at $92,591 million in 2025 against $92,419 million a year earlier — essentially unchanged; noninterest revenue excluding Markets fell 2 percent. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 net interest income excluding Markets grew 4 percent while Markets revenue rose 35 percent and Equity Markets alone 86 percent. Growth is therefore coming from the most volatile part (10-K 2025, Form 8-K of July 14, 2026).
Net charge-offs rose from $6,209 million (2023) to $8,638 million (2024) to $9,849 million (2025), the charge-off rate from 0.52 percent to 0.74 percent, and nonperforming assets from $7,597 million to $10,359 million. In Card Services the bank expects a rate of approximately 3.4 percent for 2026 after 3.31 percent in 2025. Levels remain historically low; the direction has held for three years (10-K 2025).
On June 25, 2026 Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh were elected Co-Presidents and Marianne Lake announced her retirement after more than 25 years. The compensation committee approved $100 million of retention awards whose vesting requires a three-year average return on tangible common equity of 12 percent — against 23 percent most recently excluding significant items. Orderly succession planning, but the question of who succeeds Jamie Dimon is open (Form 8-K of June 25, 2026).
JPMorgan Chase is the largest U.S. bank and has delivered 17 to 18 percent return on equity for three straight years: $57,048 million of net income in 2025, book value per share up from $104.45 to $133.01, a Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.1 percent against an 11.5 percent requirement and roughly $1.5 trillion of liquidity sources. The record for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 is still no benchmark: $4.2 billion after tax came from Visa shares and equity revaluations, net interest income excluding Markets grew just 4 percent, and loan losses are rising for the third year running. Not investment advice.
- Hook: ranking of the 100 largest U.S. stocks by market capitalization (as of July 28, 2026); JPMorgan Chase ranked 12th and had no analysis on file.
- Data basis: annual figures from the Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2025 (filed February 13, 2026), figures as of March 31, 2026 from the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q (filed May 1, 2026), figures for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 from the earnings release on Form 8-K dated July 14, 2026 (Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1). Every filing dated on or after May 1, 2026 was reviewed; the 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 was not yet on file as of July 29, 2026. Valuation metrics as of July 29, 2026.
- Metric note: for banks the Altman Z-score, price/sales, enterprise value and price to free cash flow carry no meaning — operating cash flow is driven by trading inventories and customer deposits, not by money earned. These measures are named in the article and not used.
- Cyclicality note: banking is cyclical. Rate levels, trading volumes and credit losses all move with the economy; neither the record quarter ended June 30, 2026 nor the 2025 credit year is a basis for extrapolation. That is why 2023 through 2025 appear in full in the article.
- Do not confuse: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is not Morgan Stanley (MS) — two separate firms. Within the group the "J.P. Morgan" brand is used for corporate and wealth businesses and "Chase" for consumer banking. Older time series run under "Chase Manhattan Corp" or "Chemical Banking Corp".
- Analyses are evergreen; a daily share price is not a reason to buy.
About the Company
JPMorgan Chase & Co. ist eine Bank- und Finanzholding mit Geschäft in den USA, dem übrigen Nordamerika, Europa, dem Nahen Osten, Afrika, dem asiatisch-pazifischen Raum, Lateinamerika und der Karibik.
| Employees | 320,560 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | New York, NY |
| Address | 270 Park Avenue, 10017 New York, United States |
| Phone | 212 270 6000 |
| Website | jpmorganchase.com |
| IPO Date | 6. Oct 1978 |
| ISIN | US46625H1005 |
| Stock Split | 3:2 on 06/12/2000 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| James Dimon | Chairman & CEO | 1956 |
| Douglas B. Petno | CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank and Co-President | 1966 |
| Troy Larry Rohrbaugh | CEO of Consumer & Community Banking and Co-President | 1970 |
| Jeremy Barnum | Executive VP & CFO | 1973 |
| Mary Callahan Erdoes | Chief Executive Officer of Asset & Wealth Management and Executive VP | 1967 |
| Daniel Eduardo Pinto | Vice Chairman | 1963 |
| Todd Anthony Combs M.B.A. | Head Strategic Investment Group of Security & Resiliency Initiative | 1971 |
| Eugene Davy | Co-Founder & Head of Investment Banking of EMEA | – |
| Jennifer A. Piepszak | Chief Operating Officer | 1971 |
| Elena A. Korablina | MD, Firmwide Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 1974 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27. Jul 2026 | Friedman Stacey | General Counsel | Other | 166 | 0.00 | – |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Petno Douglas B | Co-President; CEO CIB | Other | 864 | 0.00 | – |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.