Arrive AI Inc.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
The auditor's going-concern qualification on the 2025 annual report is expressly described as unresolved in the quarterly report for March 31, 2026: at roughly $1 million of cash burn per month against roughly $7.1 million of liquidity (May 12, 2026), the cash on hand does not cover four quarters, and more than 90 percent of the $113,250 in revenue comes from a single customer. On top of that come a restatement of the Q2 and Q3 2025 quarterly reports, acknowledged material weaknesses in internal control, and two open Nasdaq deadlines (November 30, 2026 and January 19, 2027) — the survival of the company itself is therefore in question. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Arrive AI is the label trap in its purest form: "AI" in the name, a serious product idea with a real patent portfolio — and underneath, filings that document a fight for survival: $113,250 of annual revenue (more than 90 percent from one customer) against a $12.8 million loss, a going-concern warning that the quarterly report calls "not alleviated," financing that raised the share count by 52 percent in four and a half months, and three Nasdaq notices with deadlines of November 30, 2026 and January 19, 2027. Whoever buys is buying an option on survival — not AI infrastructure with substance. Not investment advice.
Product & patents
The idea is serious: smart delivery stations for the autonomous last mile, a patent portfolio granted since 2017 (nine U.S. patents plus international filings) and paying pilot customers from medical logistics (including Hancock Health). But the AI features are only planned for the AP4/AP5 station generations; in operation are pilot installations of the 3rd generation (per the 10-K, April 15, 2026).
Cash cushion & time bought
The company has bought itself time: $9.6 million net in January 2026, roughly $7.1 million of liquidity as of May 12, 2026, a standstill with Streeterville through December 31, 2026 and an at-the-market program of up to $15 million (June 12, 2026). At roughly $1 million of monthly burn (2025), that lasts into 2027 depending on the pace — then new money is needed at whatever prices prevail.
Revenue reality
$113,250 of revenue in 2025, $89,000 of it consulting and more than 90 percent from a single customer (Hancock Health, per the 10-K); Q1 2026: $14,925. The "AI Services" in the company name are so far future tense without revenue. Operating expenses 2025: $10.5 million — that mismatch is the core number of this stock.
Liquidity & going concern
Going-concern opinion from the auditor on the 2025 accounts; the 10-Q as of March 31, 2026 declares the doubt "not alleviated." Cash of $2.1 million at year-end 2025 against ~$1 million of monthly burn; the remaining ~$19 million of the facility requires a $100 million market capitalization — more than three times the filing anchor of ~$29 million (June 11, 2026).
Dilution & financing structure
Conversion at min(reference price; 90 percent of the lowest 10-day VWAP, $0.25 floor): share count up from 34.2 million (December 31, 2025) to 51.9 million (May 15, 2026), +52 percent; per the 10-Q, another +63 percent possible. Add 2,937,500 pre-delivery shares for $588 and an ATM program that opens the next dilution source. The stock fell along the conversion staircase from $2.25 (January 26) to ~$0.53 (April).
Listing & reporting quality
Three Nasdaq notices within four months (MVPHS March 31, cured; minimum bid price, deadline November 30, 2026; MVPHS again, deadline January 19, 2027). Restatement of the Q2+Q3 2025 10-Qs over a misbooked conversion derivative (8-K Item 4.02, April 14, 2026) and admitted material weaknesses — of all places, in the accounting for the financing the company depends on.
Worth Noting
The stock landed on our desk via the SEC's fresh filings (8-K of July 24, 2026, second MVPHS notice from Nasdaq) — not via a metrics scanner: the company was not in our database before this research. No meaningful P/E or P/S; classic multiples mislead at this revenue level.
The market capitalization from the market-data feed deviated by more than 20 percent from the filing anchor and was not used; all price and valuation figures come from the filings ($13.00 fair value 01–05/2025; $2.63 on December 31, 2025; $0.797 on March 31, 2026; $0.56 on June 11, 2026 per the 424B5; market value ~$29 million = 51,859,347 × $0.56). Analyses are evergreen; daily prices are not a buy argument.
Not to be confused: Arrive AI (ARAI, delivery infrastructure out of Indiana) has nothing to do with Atai Life Sciences (ATAI, biotech). The name history DRONEDEK → Arrive Technology → Arrive AI is documented in the 10-K; the 1-for-4 reverse split of November 25, 2024 predates the listing, and all share counts are retroactively adjusted.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ARAI since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 0.222 $ to 6.30 $ · Last price: 0.2498 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Scientific & Technical Instruments
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrive AI Inc. ARAI | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | 100.0 | – | – | -92.1 |
| Keysight Technologies Inc KEYS | 60.0 | 52.9 | 28.1 | 63.3 | 18.8 | 8.0 | 91.7 |
| Coherent Inc COHR | 58.7 | 130.0 | 34.5 | 37.5 | 13.6 | 23.4 | 186.2 |
| Garmin Ltd GRMN | 53.1 | 30.3 | 22.3 | 60.1 | 24.6 | 15.1 | 18.9 |
| Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY | 27.9 | 30.8 | 18.5 | 43.3 | 19.0 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| MKS Instruments Inc MKSI | 17.5 | 47.7 | 19.3 | 46.9 | 16.1 | 9.6 | 99.6 |
| Fortive Corp FTV | 17.0 | 32.8 | 16.0 | 63.2 | 17.9 | -17.5 | 15.2 |
| Trimble Inc TRMB | 13.4 | 29.4 | 53.7 | 71.8 | 15.9 | -2.6 | -28.0 |
| Cognex Corporation CGNX | 10.1 | 72.9 | 36.4 | 68.9 | 22.3 | 8.7 | 38.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 17.5 | 40.2 | 22.3 | 63.2 | 18.4 | 8.3 | 18.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0 | -2 | -2 | -0.05 | -1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2022 | 0 | -2 | -2 | -0.08 | -2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2023 | 0 | -5 | -7 | -0.24 | -3 | 0 | 1 |
| 2024 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -0.15 | -2 | -1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 0 | -10 | -13 | -0.40 | -8 | 2 | 11 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.03 | – | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.07 | – | 0 | – | – | -1 | -1 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.09 | – | 0 | – | -5,153.80 | -3 | -3 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.04 | – | 0 | – | -31,957.10 | -1 | -1 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.08 | – | 0 | – | -26,146.70 | -3 | -4 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.18 | – | 0 | – | -42,466.70 | -3 | -4 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.28 | -211.10 | 0 | -100.00 | – | -3 | -4 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 10 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Best Hits
Research
Risk & Weakness
- Below the 50- & 200-SMA
- Going Concern (Distress Proxy)
- Near 52-Week Low
- RS Weakness (≤10)
- Stage 4 (Downtrend)
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 4
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 4B-
- Weakness Cluster
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.58 | -0.58 – -0.58 | 0 | – | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.31 | -0.31 – -0.31 | 2 | – | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Das einzige Produkt — die ALM-Plattform mit dem Arrive-Point-Netz — wird im 10-K ausdrücklich mit „AI Services“ als Erlössäule beschrieben und über laufende Abos verkauft (113.250 $ Umsatz 2025, 14.925 $ in Q1 2026); die KI-Datenmonetarisierung selbst ist laut 10-Q noch im Aufbau (ML erst für die Stationsgenerationen AP4/AP5 geplant).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Our integrated ALM Platform combines a physical Arrive Point™ Network (delivered as Network-as-a-Service), an ALM Marketplace for dynamic scheduling and transactional optimization and AI Services for data-driven insights and automation."
Unsere integrierte ALM-Plattform verbindet ein physisches Arrive-Point™-Netz (bereitgestellt als Network-as-a-Service), einen ALM-Marktplatz für dynamische Terminierung und Transaktionsoptimierung und AI Services für datengetriebene Erkenntnisse und Automatisierung.
10-K · 2026-04-15 · View SEC filing
„Data monetization via models and insights generated by machine learning and artificial intelligence (“ML” and “AI”)."
Datenmonetarisierung über Modelle und Erkenntnisse, die durch maschinelles Lernen und künstliche Intelligenz („ML“ und „AI“) erzeugt werden.
10-Q · 2026-05-15 · View SEC filing
„Our mission is to connect these systems through a universal ALM network of Arrive Points™—smart lockers and mini-cross-docks—powered by an AI-driven ALM platform."
Unsere Mission ist es, diese Systeme über ein universelles ALM-Netz aus Arrive Points™ — smarte Schließfächer und Mini-Umschlagpunkte — zu verbinden, angetrieben von einer KI-getriebenen ALM-Plattform.
10-Q · 2026-05-15 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-04-15 · 10-Q 2026-05-15 · 8-K 2026-07-24 · 424B5 2026-06-12 · 8-K 2026-06-05 · 8-K 2026-05-18
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 650.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 2.4%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") no data
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion no data
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 11 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -244.0%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 60.5%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
3/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 326.4%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 326.4%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -582.3%
- ROCE > 15% -243.9%
- Expected return > 10% 77.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Arrive AI Inc., ein Technologieunternehmen, entwirft und implementiert ein kommerziell tragfähiges System aus smartem Briefkasten und Plattform in den USA.
- Employees
- 50
- Headquarters
- Fishers, IN
- Address
- 9100 Fall View Drive, 46037 Fishers, United States
- Phone
- 463 270 0092
- Website
- arriveai.com
- IPO Date
- 05/15/2025
- ISIN
- US04272H2040
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Steven O'Toole | Founder, CEO & Chairman | 1965 |
| Mark D. Hamm | COO & Director | 1967 |
| John Ritchison | Attorney, Secretary, General Counsel & Director | 1951 |
| Neerav Shah | Chief Strategy Officer & Director | 1973 |
| Piyush Phadke | Chief Financial Officer | 1979 |
| Kylie Conway | Senior Marketing & Communications Manager | – |
| Ian Geise | Head of Commercialization | 1972 |
| Lora O'Toole | Vice President of Business Development | 2000 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/08/2026 Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/19/2026 Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/12/2026 Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI): Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement; Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/31/2026 Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
- 07/24/2026 Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI): Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.