Walmart Inc. (WMT)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
The substance is documented and it is not thin: $99,617 million of shareholders' equity against $34,624 million of long-term debt, $41,565 million of operating cash flow, $14,923 million of free cash flow, and operating income that covers the $2,793 million of interest paid more than ten times over. The operating margin has held between 4.2 and 4.4 percent for three years, operating income rose in every one of them, all three segments make money, and the 59.1 percent grocery share at Walmart U.S. is the least cyclical corner of retail. There is no going-concern language here, no negative equity, no accounting or governance breach — hence green. That is expressly not a claim that everything runs smoothly: almost a quarter of operating income does not come from selling merchandise, merchandise at Sam's Club now contributes a loss, dividends and buybacks exceeded free cash flow for the first time, and the company's own annual report names agentic shopping tools as a traffic risk. On top of that the stock is decidedly expensive for a retailer earning a 4.2 percent margin, at roughly 39 times trailing earnings and 9.2 times book value — that is a price argument, and it does not set this rating. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
In fiscal 2026 Walmart sold $706 billion worth of goods and kept 4.2 percent of that as operating income. Of those $29.8 billion, $6.75 billion came from membership fees and other income — at Sam's Club, more than the entire segment result. We work through the filings to show where this company's profit is actually made.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 29, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at WMT since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 111.20 $ — 40% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
ThreatenedDer Geschäftsbericht 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2026 nennt erstmals KI-gestützte Such- und Kaufplattformen sowie „agentische“ Einkaufswerkzeuge von Wettbewerbern als konkretes Risiko für die Kundenfrequenz in den eigenen Filialen und Clubs; KI ist bei Walmart selbst keine Umsatzquelle, sondern Werkzeug für Lieferkette, Personal und Einkaufserlebnis.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In addition, a greater concentration of eCommerce sales, including increasing online grocery sales and the increasing role of AI-enabled platforms in product search, discovery, advertising and purchasing, could result in a reduction in the amount of traffic in our stores and clubs, which would, in turn, reduce the opportunities for cross-store or cross-club sales of merchandise that such traffic creates and could reduce our sales within our stores and clubs and materially adversely affect our financial performance."
Darüber hinaus könnte eine stärkere Konzentration der Umsätze im Online-Handel — einschließlich steigender Online-Lebensmittelverkäufe und der wachsenden Rolle KI-gestützter Plattformen bei Produktsuche, Produktentdeckung, Werbung und Kauf — zu einem Rückgang der Kundenfrequenz in unseren Filialen und Clubs führen, was wiederum die Gelegenheiten für filial- und clubübergreifende Warenverkäufe verringern würde, die diese Frequenz schafft, und unsere Umsätze in Filialen und Clubs senken sowie unsere Ertragslage wesentlich beeinträchtigen könnte.
„The omnichannel retail landscape is highly competitive and rapidly evolving, and the entry of new, well-funded competitors, or more rapid development of AI capabilities and agentic tools by these competitors to enhance productivity and the shopping experience, may increase competitive pressures."
Das Omnichannel-Handelsumfeld ist hart umkämpft und verändert sich rasch; der Markteintritt neuer, gut finanzierter Wettbewerber oder eine schnellere Entwicklung von KI-Fähigkeiten und agentischen Werkzeugen durch diese Wettbewerber zur Steigerung der Produktivität und des Einkaufserlebnisses kann den Wettbewerbsdruck erhöhen.
„We continue to invest in AI to enhance our customers' shopping experience and our associate work experience and to improve efficiencies of our supply chain, operations, management functions and talent recruitment and development"
Wir investieren weiterhin in KI, um das Einkaufserlebnis unserer Kunden und die Arbeitserfahrung unserer Mitarbeiter zu verbessern und die Effizienz unserer Lieferkette, unseres Betriebs, unserer Verwaltungsfunktionen sowie der Personalgewinnung und -entwicklung zu steigern
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-29 · 10-K 2026-03-13 · 10-Q 2025-12-03 · 10-Q 2025-08-29 · 10-Q 2025-06-06 · 10-K 2025-03-14
Rated on July 29, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Red flags quietly dropped targetsAcross ten transcripts from fiscal 2024-Q4 to 2027-Q1, Walmart met or beat its quarterly and annual guidance almost without exception and grew operating income faster than sales for three consecutive years. The problem lies elsewhere: concrete, dated targets disappear from the calls once they get tight. The automation goal for the end of fiscal 2026 was missed and never mentioned again, and the rollback baseline management cited in 2027-Q1 sits below almost every figure the company itself had reported in the two preceding years. Investors who trust the quarterly delivery should still track the multi-year targets themselves.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
Fiscal 2026 automation goal missed and never revisited
In 2024-Q4 management named a concrete goal: by the end of fiscal 2026, roughly 55 percent of e-commerce fulfillment center volume and roughly 65 percent of supercenters were to be serviced by automation. The company kept reporting the fulfillment center figure, though not every quarter: more than 45 percent in 2025-Q2, more than 50 percent in 2025-Q3 and 2026-Q3, around 50 percent in 2026-Q4, the end of the target period. The 55 percent mark was therefore missed, and in none of the eight following calls was the goal mentioned again, neither as met nor as missed. For the store side the calls allow no comparison at all: the roughly 60 percent cited later refers to all stores receiving some freight from automated distribution centers. That wording already stood next to the goal in 2024-Q4 and 2025-Q2 and is not the same as 65 percent of supercenters serviced by automation. In 2027-Q1 the new CEO said the company is about halfway there on automation, with more than half of regional distribution centers still being retrofitted.
Rollback baseline sits below the company's own prior quarters
The number of price rollbacks is the key metric Walmart uses to evidence its price investments. Across the calls it swings widely: more than 7,200 in 2025-Q2, about 6,000 in 2025-Q3, 5,800 in 2025-Q4, more than 5,000 in 2026-Q1, about 7,400 in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3, 6,200 in 2026-Q4. In 2027-Q1 the CEO presented the current roughly 7,200 rollbacks as a meaningful acceleration, on the grounds that for the last few years the count had run in the 5,000 to 5,500 range. That baseline sits below almost every figure the company itself gave in the two preceding fiscal years; it matches only the weakest quarters, 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1. Whether a longer look-back would support it cannot be checked from the calls, since no absolute counts were given before 2025-Q1. As early as 2025-Q4 an analyst had asked about the drop to 5,800; the answer went no further than saying the count fluctuates quarter to quarter and that about 1,000 had recently been added.
E-commerce profitability: magnitude stays undisclosed
In 2024-Q4 the CFO explicitly distinguished between e-commerce profitability including advertising, fulfillment services and membership, and profitability without those props, which he said was further down the road. The clarification promised in 2025-Q2 on whether advertising is included did in fact arrive with the milestone in 2026-Q1: the CFO named advertising and membership fees as drivers of the profitability, and the CEO explicitly cited the advertising and data business as the reason for the first profitable quarter. The magnitude, however, stayed open. In 2026-Q1 the CFO declined on direct questioning to quantify the historical losses; in 2026-Q2 the question about the contribution to profit growth drew only percentage answers, and in 2026-Q4 the line became that the topic is no longer even discussed internally because the business is far past breakeven. An absolute e-commerce profit figure appears in none of the ten calls.
Guidance is delivered reliably
On the numbers themselves the record is strong. In all four quarters of fiscal 2025, that is 2025-Q1 through 2025-Q4, sales, operating income and earnings per share came in above the top end of the company's own guidance; the annual outlook was raised twice and beaten again at year end, with 5.6 percent sales growth and nearly 10 percent adjusted operating income growth. Fiscal 2026, shaped by tariffs and one-off costs, delivered too: roughly 5 percent sales growth against the 3 to 4 percent guided in February 2025, and 5.4 percent operating income growth inside the 3.5 to 5.5 percent range given at the time. In 2026-Q4 it was the third consecutive year of profit growing faster than sales. In 2027-Q1 sales beat the top of the guided range by 120 basis points and the full-year outlook was reaffirmed despite higher fuel costs.
One-off items pile up, one quarter got no profit guidance at all
From fiscal 2026 onward, items that burden earnings or get adjusted out become more frequent. In 2026-Q1 the CFO flagged higher accruals for general liability and workers compensation claims; in 2026-Q2 another 450 million dollars followed, 730 million for the first half, cutting operating income growth by 560 basis points in the quarter and 300 basis points for the full year. The same quarter saw an 80 million dollar restructuring charge and legal matters adjusted out, 2026-Q3 added a roughly 700 million dollar non-cash charge tied to the Indian holding PhonePe, and 2027-Q1 brought roughly 175 million dollars of higher fuel cost worth 250 basis points. For 2026-Q2 the company also gave no operating income guidance at all, the only such case in the ten calls reviewed, arguing the range of outcomes was too wide; the extraordinary inventory-accounting markups cited as the reason then did not materialize at the expected scale, as 2026-Q2 itself disclosed. The annual targets still held, but the share of adjusted figures in the success story has grown.
Picture of the U.S. consumer turns gradually from 2026-Q2
Through all of fiscal 2025, that is 2025-Q1 through 2025-Q4, management described the U.S. consumer almost unchanged as resilient and consistent. From 2026-Q2 the tone shifted, with talk of more adjustments among middle and lower income households. In 2026-Q3 the CEO cited additional pressure on low income families and the CFO explicitly noted moderation in their spending. In 2026-Q4 households below 50,000 dollars of annual income were described as in some cases living paycheck to paycheck, and in 2027-Q1 the CFO named a hard stress indicator for the first time: gallons per fill-up fell below ten for the first time since 2022. The deterioration was disclosed openly, but across all ten calls management never provided comparable sales figures by income cohort, including when asked directly in 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3.
Management promises
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2024-Q4 broken
By the end of fiscal 2026, roughly 55 percent of e-commerce fulfillment center volume and roughly 65 percent of supercenters are to be serviced by automation.
In 2026-Q4, at the end of the target period, e-commerce fulfillment center automation stood at about 50 percent instead of the announced 55 percent, unchanged from 2025-Q3. For the 65 percent supercenter mark the calls no longer provide a comparable figure; only about 60 percent of all stores receiving some freight from automated distribution centers was cited. The goal was never mentioned again in any of the eight following calls.
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2025-Q2 kept
Once the e-commerce profitability threshold is crossed, the company will also say whether advertising is included.
The milestone was announced in 2026-Q1, and advertising was explicitly named as part of it in the same call: the CFO cited advertising and membership fees as drivers of the profitability, and the CEO named the advertising and data business as the reason for the first profitable quarter. The promise was therefore kept. What remains open, though never promised, is the magnitude of the historical losses.
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2024-Q4 kept
The VIZIO acquisition is to close in fiscal 2025, be slightly dilutive to earnings near term and accretive on a return basis.
The deal closed in December 2024, inside fiscal 2025; in 2025-Q4 the transaction costs were disclosed as a drag exactly as flagged, and by 2026-Q4 VIZIO was in the comparison base and delivering triple-digit advertising growth.
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2025-Q4 open
The VIZIO acquisition is to become accretive to earnings in the following year, meaning fiscal 2027.
In the fiscal 2027 guidance given in 2026-Q4, VIZIO no longer appears as a headwind, and in 2027-Q1 the platform is described as extending advertising reach. An explicit confirmation of earnings accretion is still missing.
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2025-Q4 open
Indian fintech holding PhonePe is preparing for an IPO in India.
In 2026-Q3 a roughly 700 million dollar non-cash charge for share-based compensation in contemplation of a potential IPO was booked. Neither a completion nor even a time frame had been given as of 2027-Q1; the Flipkart IPO mentioned earlier also disappeared after 2025-Q1.
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2026-Q1 kept
Despite the tariff burden, the fiscal 2026 full-year guidance is to be held and operating income is to grow faster than sales.
In 2026-Q4 the company reported roughly 5 percent sales and 5.4 percent adjusted operating income growth, the third consecutive year of profit ahead of sales, even after absorbing 730 million dollars of additional claims expense in the first half.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 24.1% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 43
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2027 | 2.90 | 2.81 – 3.06 | 752,120 | 9.9% | 38 |
| 01/31/2028 | 3.28 | 3.10 – 3.62 | 786,858 | 13.1% | 39 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.74 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025: Q1 | 0.65 | -4.10 | 180,554 | 4.10 | 2.90 | 13,525 | 6,438 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.56 | -11.70 | 165,609 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 5,411 | 425 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.88 | 57.40 | 177,402 | 4.80 | 4.00 | 12,941 | 6,518 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.77 | 35.40 | 179,496 | 5.80 | 3.40 | 9,100 | 1,882 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.53 | -18.70 | 190,656 | 5.60 | 2.20 | 14,113 | 6,098 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.71 | 26.70 | 177,751 | 7.30 | 3.20 | 4,738 | -1,946 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 485,873 | 22,764 | 13,643 | 1.46 | 31,673 | 80,535 | 198,825 |
| 2018 | 500,343 | 20,437 | 9,862 | 1.09 | 28,337 | 80,822 | 204,522 |
| 2019 | 514,405 | 21,957 | 6,670 | 0.76 | 27,753 | 79,634 | 219,295 |
| 2020 | 523,964 | 20,568 | 14,881 | 1.73 | 25,255 | 81,552 | 236,495 |
| 2021 | 559,151 | 22,548 | 13,510 | 1.58 | 36,074 | 87,531 | 252,496 |
| 2022 | 572,754 | 25,942 | 13,673 | 1.62 | 24,181 | 91,891 | 244,860 |
| 2023 | 611,289 | 20,428 | 11,680 | 1.42 | 29,101 | 83,991 | 243,457 |
| 2024 | 648,125 | 27,012 | 15,511 | 1.91 | 35,726 | 90,571 | 252,399 |
| 2025 | 680,985 | 29,348 | 19,436 | 2.41 | 36,443 | 91,013 | 260,823 |
| 2026 | 713,163 | 29,825 | 21,893 | 2.73 | 41,565 | 99,617 | 284,668 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The largest retailer in the world: $706,413 million of revenue in fiscal 2026, 10,955 locations across 19 countries, roughly 2.1 million associates. All three segments are growing and profitable; Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 4.3 percent after 4.8 percent a year earlier, and global eCommerce sales passed $150 billion (Form 10-K fiscal 2026, DEF 14A dated April 23, 2026).
Of fiscal 2026 operating income of $29,825 million, $6,750 million — 22.6 percent — came from membership and other income. At Sam's Club the share is 103.4 percent, with merchandise contributing minus $83 million. That is commercially smart and high-margin, but it ties the result to member counts, advertising budgets and marketplace fees rather than to selling goods (Form 10-K fiscal 2026, segment disclosures).
Consolidated net income of $22,270 million includes a $2,075 million valuation gain on equity investments, whereas the prior years carried losses of $794 million and $3,027 million. That $2.9 billion swing in a single year has nothing to do with retailing. Working the other way, a $0.7 billion non-cash PhonePe charge and roughly $0.9 billion of higher self-insured claims expense weighed on the result (Form 10-K fiscal 2026, Note 7 and Item 7).
The balance sheet is solid: $99,617 million of shareholders' equity, $34,624 million of long-term debt and $41,565 million of operating cash flow as of January 31, 2026. But in fiscal 2026 the dividend ($7,507 million) and buybacks ($8,088 million) together came to $15,595 million, exceeding free cash flow of $14,923 million for the first time in three years, while capital expenditures rose to $26,642 million (Form 10-K fiscal 2026, statement of cash flows).
The fiscal 2026 annual report names AI-enabled search and purchasing platforms and "agentic" shopping tools as a risk to traffic in stores and clubs for the first time — and therefore to the add-on sales that traffic creates. The word "agentic" does not appear in the prior-year report. A company operating 4,611 U.S. stores has more to lose from a shift online than a pure online retailer does (Form 10-K fiscal 2026, Item 1A).
Walton Enterprises held 44.11 percent of the votes as of April 10, 2026 — in practice a controlling stake, even though the board is majority independent. Effective February 2026, John Furner succeeded Doug McMillon, who had led the company since 2014, as president and chief executive; Furner is the sixth CEO in company history and previously ran Walmart U.S. (DEF 14A dated April 23, 2026).
Walmart is the largest retailer in the world and runs a remarkably stable operating margin of 4.2 to 4.4 percent: $706,413 million of revenue, $29,825 million of operating income and $41,565 million of operating cash flow in fiscal 2026. What stands out is where the profit comes from: 22.6 percent of operating income is membership and other income, and at Sam's Club the figure is 103.4 percent. Add a $2,075 million valuation gain on equity investments, shareholder returns that exceeded free cash flow, and an annual report that names agentic shopping tools as a traffic risk for the first time. Not investment advice.
- Hook: ranking of the 100 largest U.S. stocks by market value (as of July 28, 2026); Walmart sat at number 13 and had no analysis yet.
- Fiscal year: Walmart's fiscal year ends on January 31. Fiscal 2026 ran from February 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026 and covers essentially calendar year 2025. Every annual figure in this analysis follows that convention.
- Data as of: annual figures from the Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (filed March 13, 2026), quarterly figures from the Form 10-Q for the period ended April 30, 2026 (filed May 29, 2026) and the earnings release on Form 8-K dated May 21, 2026 (Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1). Every filing from March 13, 2026 onward was reviewed. Valuation multiples as of July 29, 2026.
- One-off note: fiscal 2026 earnings include a $2,075 million valuation gain on equity investments and are weighed down by a $0.7 billion non-cash PhonePe charge. Neither item is suitable for extrapolation, which is why fiscal 2024 through 2026 appear in full in the article.
- Listing venue: the shares trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. Older sources and databases still show the New York Stock Exchange — the change was filed as a Form 25 on December 8, 2025.
- Easily confused: Walmart Inc. (WMT) is not Walmart de México y Centroamérica (Walmex), the majority-owned subsidiary separately listed in Mexico City. Older time series run under "Wal-Mart Stores Inc."
- Analyses are evergreen; a daily quote is not a buy argument.
About the Company
Walmart Inc. betreibt weltweit Einzelhandels- und Großhandelsgeschäfte und -Clubs, E-Commerce-Websites und mobile Anwendungen.
| CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.) | selling own stock |
|---|---|
| Employees | 2,100,000 |
| Headquarters | Bentonville, AR |
| Address | 1 Customer Drive, 72716 Bentonville, United States |
| Phone | 479-273-4000 |
| Website | stock.walmart.com |
| IPO Date | 25. Aug 1972 |
| ISIN | US9311421039 |
| Stock Split | 3:1 on 02/26/2024 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John R. Furner | President, CEO & Director | 1975 |
| John David Rainey Jr. | Executive VP & CFO | 1970 |
| Suresh Kumar Ph.D. | Executive VP, Global CTO & Chief Development Officer | 1965 |
| C. Douglas McMillon | Executive Officer | 1966 |
| Daniel Danker | Executive Vice President of AI Acceleration, Product & Design | 1981 |
| Dwayne M. Milum | Senior VP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 1976 |
| Stephanie Wissink | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Erin Nealy Cox J.D. | Executive VP of Global Governance, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1970 |
| Allyson Park | Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer | – |
| Donna Catherine Morris | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 1967 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16. Jul 2026 | Nicholas Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Sell | 1,261 | 114.48 | 144,358 |
| 16. Jul 2026 | Nicholas Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Sell | 1,639 | 113.87 | 186,640 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Milum Dwayne M | SVP & Controller | Other | 121 | 114.78 | 13,888 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Guggina David W | Executive Vice President | Other | 118 | 114.78 | 13,544 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Dallaire Seth | Executive Vice President | Other | 387 | 114.78 | 44,420 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Watkins Latriece | Executive Vice President | Other | 227 | 114.78 | 26,055 |
| 23. Apr 2026 | C Douglas Mcmillon | Director | Sell | 19,416 | 132.21 | 2,566,989 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.