Tilly's, Inc.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The turnaround has a date and a number: for the quarter ending August 1, 2026 Tilly's itself guides to $3.8 million to $6.0 million of net income and $0.13 to $0.20 per share, on net sales of $154 million to $160 million and comparable sales growth of 6 to 10 percent; the report is expected on September 2, 2026. Anyone waiting should then check three things: do comparable sales hold above 6 percent once the base is higher? Does product margin stay above 56 percent? And does the share count grow beyond the 30,488,420 of June 2, 2026? The low valuation rewards patience; the control and dilution picture is why patience here is not automatic. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Tilly's is the base trap in its purest form: the 22.9 percent comparable sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is real and filed — but it was measured against a prior-year quarter of minus 7.0 percent, compounded over two years roughly 14.3 percent remains, and the quarter still ended with an $8.0 million loss. The operating repair is visible (gross margin 28.9 percent instead of 19.8 percent, the first profitable holiday quarter since fiscal 2021), yet annual net sales have fallen for four straight years and the company's own outlook calls for only 6 to 10 percent this quarter. Add 75.9 percent of the votes in two pairs of hands, $4.3 million of annual rent paid to the founders and 2.5 million new plan shares. Not investment advice.
Operating turnaround
The improvement is broad and documented across several quarters: first-quarter gross margin of 28.9 percent instead of 19.8 percent, product margin of 56.6 percent instead of 52.6 percent, and the operating loss cut from $22.7 million to $8.1 million. The holiday quarter, at $2.9 million of net income, was the first profitable fourth quarter since fiscal 2021.
Quality of the growth number
The 22.9 percent comparable sales figure sits on a prior-year quarter of minus 7.0 percent; compounded over two years, roughly 14.3 percent remains. The jump is already shrinking: 8.3 percent in fiscal May 2026 and 6 to 10 percent in the company's own outlook for the quarter ending August 1, 2026. Total net sales have fallen for four straight years — $553.6 million in fiscal 2025 against $775.7 million in 2021.
Balance sheet and liquidity
No borrowings drawn, $41.1 million in cash and marketable securities, $50.7 million of available credit maturing only in September 2028 — $91.8 million of total liquidity as of May 2, 2026. Against that stand $175.9 million of operating lease liabilities and equity of $77.8 million, which fell $7.4 million during the quarter; the accumulated deficit is $99.6 million.
Control and related parties
The founders' Class B shares carry ten votes each: 75.9 percent of the voting power on about 24 percent of the equity (record date April 17, 2026). Add $4.3 million of fiscal 2025 rent paid to companies owned by those same founders, with a contractual escalator and $16.8 million of remaining commitments. A change of control against the founders' wishes is effectively impossible.
Dilution
On June 26, 2026, Tilly's registered 2,500,000 new Class A shares for the equity plan approved on June 10, 2026 — 8.2 percent of the 30,488,420 shares outstanding. The plan authorizes 11,113,900 shares in total since 2012. Share-based compensation expense in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 was $0.5 million.
Valuation
Market value of roughly $115 million to $132 million (data as of July 24, 2026, and the $4.3150 filing price of June 25, 2026) equals about 0.21 to 0.24 times annual sales and a price-to-book ratio of roughly 1.5. For a store base generating $553.6 million of annual sales with no bank debt, that is a low order of magnitude — the price of an absent profit.
Worth Noting
Tilly's landed on the research list at rank 9 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise ranking (U.S. selection, as of July 25, 2026, relative strength rating 95). The lists are recomputed daily — today's rank is not tomorrow's rank. Earnings per share beat the estimate in four consecutive quarters; that measures the distance to the estimate, not the distance to breakeven.
Calendar trap: the fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to January 31. "Fiscal 2025" means the 52 weeks ended January 31, 2026, and fiscal 2026 ends January 30, 2027; fiscal 2023 contained 53 weeks. The first quarter is seasonally the weakest — back-to-school and the holidays fall in the third and fourth quarters, so a quarterly loss must not be multiplied by four.
Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: market value roughly $115 million to $132 million (data as of July 24, 2026, and share count times the $4.3150 price documented in the S-8 filing for June 25, 2026). Not to be confused: the aggregate market value of shares held by non-affiliates was $15,363,799 on August 1, 2025 — that is the free float, not the market capitalization.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at TLYS since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 1.20 $ to 5.50 $ · Last price: 4.30 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Apparel Retail
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tilly's, Inc. TLYS | 0.1 | – | 25.4 | 45.9 | -6.5 | -2.8 | 114.1 |
| The TJX Companies Inc TJX | 139.9 | 25.1 | 15.6 | 31.5 | 11.8 | 7.1 | -8.5 |
| Ross Stores Inc ROST | 73.6 | 32.7 | 18.2 | 33.4 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 57.8 |
| Burlington Stores Inc BURL | 15.1 | 26.4 | 13.5 | 44.1 | 5.9 | 8.8 | -8.9 |
| Lululemon Athletica Inc. LULU | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 54.9 | 11.2 | 4.9 | -39.2 |
| The Gap, Inc. GAP | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 40.5 | 12.7 | 1.9 | -5.7 |
| Urban Outfitters Inc URBN | 6.7 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 8.2 |
| Abercrombie & Fitch Company ANF | 6.3 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 63.7 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 62.3 |
| Victoria's Secret & Co VSXY | 6.2 | 31.3 | 10.9 | 37.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | – |
| Median of companies shown | 7.7 | 20.5 | 10.9 | 40.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 1.3 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 569 | 19 | 11 | 0.40 | 49 | 189 | 291 |
| 2018 | 577 | 24 | 15 | 0.51 | 33 | 160 | 290 |
| 2019 | 598 | 31 | 25 | 0.84 | 47 | 163 | 293 |
| 2020 | 619 | 28 | 23 | 0.76 | 36 | 160 | 547 |
| 2021 | 531 | -3 | -1 | -0.04 | 39 | 161 | 505 |
| 2022 | 776 | 88 | 64 | 2.06 | 63 | 175 | 505 |
| 2023 | 672 | 11 | 10 | 0.32 | -1 | 177 | 476 |
| 2024 | 623 | -28 | -34 | -1.16 | -7 | 145 | 430 |
| 2025 | 569 | -50 | -46 | -1.54 | -42 | 101 | 342 |
| 2026 | 554 | -19 | -17 | -0.58 | 4 | 85 | 311 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q3 | 0.00 | 92.30 | 163 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 11 | 8 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.43 | -1,333.30 | 143 | -13.80 | -9.00 | -23 | -25 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.45 | -164.70 | 147 | -14.90 | -9.30 | -4 | -5 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.74 | -54.20 | 108 | -7.10 | -20.60 | -8 | -10 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.10 | 4,447.80 | 151 | -7.10 | 2.10 | 14 | 13 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.05 | 88.40 | 140 | -2.70 | -1.00 | -10 | -12 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.10 | 122.20 | 155 | 5.30 | 1.90 | 9 | 7 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.26 | 64.90 | 125 | 15.90 | -6.40 | -4 | -5 |
| 2026: Q3 | – | – | 164 | 8.10 | 5.10 | 22 | 21 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Earnings & Surprises
Momentum & Trend
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- High ADR (≥5%)
- RS Leader (≥90)
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2027 | 0.22 | 0.22 – 0.22 | 598 | 137.9% | 1 |
| 01/31/2028 | 0.14 | 0.14 – 0.14 | 589 | -36.4% | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 0.3% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $11.3M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $131.0M |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $11.6M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 46.5% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
In den sechs geprüften SEC-Berichten steht genau eine KI-Nennung — die für das Geschäftsjahr 2026 angekündigte Umstellung des Warennachschub- und Verteilsystems auf eine Plattform mit künstlicher Intelligenz; ein laufender KI-Einsatz oder gar KI-Umsatz ist nirgends belegt.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In fiscal 2026, we intend to update our existing merchandise replenishment and allocation system with a more sophisticated platform that utilizes artificial intelligence to create more accurate forecasts to drive improved sales and product margins across our business."
Im Geschäftsjahr 2026 beabsichtigen wir, unser bestehendes System für Warennachschub und Warenverteilung auf eine anspruchsvollere Plattform umzustellen, die künstliche Intelligenz nutzt, um genauere Prognosen zu erstellen und damit Umsatz und Produktmargen im gesamten Geschäft zu verbessern.
10-K · 2026-04-09 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-06-04 · 10-Q 2025-12-04 · 10-Q 2025-09-04 · 10-Q 2025-06-05 · 10-K 2026-04-09 · 10-K 2025-04-10
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -6.3%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -71.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -2.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 29.7%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 54 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -9.2%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 4.0%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
0/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -0.3%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 3.1%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 3.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 6
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -20.5%
- ROCE > 15% -9.2%
- Expected return > 10% 2.6%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 5,100 | 4.24 | 21,649 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 174,870 | 4.17 | 729,505 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 1,102 | 4.50 | 4,963 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 34,115 | 4.52 | 154,220 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 19,764 | 4.37 | 86,303 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 377,129 | 4.50 | 1,695,383 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 1,330 | 4.36 | 5,798 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 252,725 | 4.59 | 1,159,831 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 526,474 | 4.14 | 2,181,498 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 10% Owner | Sell | 863,726 | 4.67 | 4,032,391 |
The company
About the Company
Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, boys, and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise comprising branded, fashion, and styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, swim and dresses; and accessories merchandise consist of backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. It sells its merchandise through its stores and e-commerce website, www.tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
- Employees
- 1,314
- Headquarters
- Irvine, CA
- Address
- 10 Whatney, 92618 Irvine, United States
- Phone
- 949 609 5599
- Website
- tillys.com
- IPO Date
- 05/04/2012
- ISIN
- US8868851028
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Hezy Shaked | Co-Founder, Executive Chairman & Chief Strategy Officer | 1955 |
| Nathan M. Smith | President, CEO & Director | 1970 |
| Michael L. Henry | Executive VP & CFO | 1971 |
| Michael Joseph Cingolani | Executive VP & Chief Merchandising Officer | 1978 |
| Tilly Levine | Co-Founder | 1956 |
| Erik Quade | Chief Information Officer | – |
| Michael Bruckner | Director of Legal & Corporate Secretary | – |
| Bobby Gascon | Vice President of Marketing & Innovation | – |
| Jaheida Sanchez | Vice President of Human Resources | – |
| Shelly Bueno-Johnson | Senior Vice President of Stores | 1970 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/02/2026 TILLY'S, INC. (TLYS): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.