The AES Corporation (AES)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The business is real and hard to copy: 34,740 megawatts of generating capacity, two regulated utilities with statutory service territories, a signed backlog of 12.0 gigawatts, $4,306 million of operating cash flow in 2025 and an Altman Z of 3.42 far outside the danger zone. No sign of substance risk — hence no red. What is missing for green is earnings quality: a 1.3 percent margin after all costs, interest expense more than eight times group net income, four years with a cumulative spending gap of $12,789 million, and an equity ratio of 8.4 percent at which minority partners own more than shareholders do. Reported earnings per share also depend on a loss allocation that moves with the project cycle. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Power producer AES trades about 67 percent below its old high, which is why it shows up in our turnaround list. Except that on June 26, 2026 shareholders approved a buyout by GIP and EQT at $15.00 per share in cash. We read the annual report, the quarterly report filed on May 5, 2026 and the merger proxy, and we find earnings largely paid for by minority partners, four years of spending more than the business brought in, and a valuation range from the company's own adviser whose upper end sits a third above the offer. A share price that stands still is not a calm share price.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 14.70 $ — 46% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIAES setzt künstliche Intelligenz operativ ein — der Installationsroboter Maximo und die gemeinsam mit dem AI Fund entwickelten Anwendungen —, verkauft aber selbst keine nennenswerten KI-Produkte: das Segment New Energy Technologies brachte 2025 nur 1 Million US-Dollar Umsatz von 12.233 Millionen.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In 2025, AES furthered its partnership with the AI Fund to combine its power sector expertise with the fund's artificial intelligence capabilities, leveraging generative AI technology to address bottlenecks in the energy transition. At the same time, AES made significant advancements with Maximo, an AI-powered robot designed to enhance the speed, efficiency, and safety of solar installations."
Im Jahr 2025 hat AES seine Partnerschaft mit dem AI Fund vertieft, um die eigene Kompetenz im Energiesektor mit den Fähigkeiten des Fonds im Bereich künstliche Intelligenz zu verbinden und mit generativer KI Engpässe der Energiewende zu beheben. Zugleich hat AES deutliche Fortschritte mit Maximo erzielt, einem KI-gesteuerten Roboter, der Tempo, Effizienz und Sicherheit von Solarinstallationen erhöhen soll.
„As of December 31, 2025, AES had a fleet of five Maximo units in operation that assisted with construction at the 2 GW Bellefield solar-plus-storage facility in California. The Company expects to expand its fleet to serve a growing backlog of installation contracts in 2026."
Zum 31. Dezember 2025 hatte AES fünf Maximo-Einheiten im Einsatz, die beim Bau der 2-GW-Anlage Bellefield aus Solar und Speicher in Kalifornien geholfen haben. Das Unternehmen erwartet, seine Flotte 2026 auszuweiten, um einen wachsenden Auftragsbestand an Installationsverträgen zu bedienen.
„New Energy Technologies — Investments in Fluence, Maximo, the AI Fund, and other new and innovative energy technology businesses."
New Energy Technologies — Beteiligungen an Fluence, Maximo, dem AI Fund und weiteren neuen, innovativen Energietechnik-Unternehmen.
„Our Renewables SBU is well-positioned to take advantage of the growth in data centers driven by the increase in power demand for generative artificial intelligence."
Unser Segment Renewables ist gut aufgestellt, um vom Wachstum der Rechenzentren zu profitieren, das vom steigenden Strombedarf für generative künstliche Intelligenz getrieben wird.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-05 · 10-K 2026-03-02 · 10-Q 2025-11-04 · 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 10-Q 2025-05-01 · 10-K 2025-03-11
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 2.0% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Hold
- Analyst Ratings
- 11
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 2.29 | 2.13 – 2.40 | 12,826 | -2.3% | 10 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2.38 | 2.10 – 2.67 | 13,438 | 4.0% | 11 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.79 | – | 2,962 | -0.20 | 18.90 | 1,088 | -639 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.06 | -89.40 | 2,926 | -5.20 | 1.60 | 545 | -709 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.15 | -137.30 | 2,855 | -3.00 | -3.70 | 976 | -356 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.89 | 24.40 | 3,351 | 1.90 | 18.90 | 1,297 | -511 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.45 | -42.60 | 3,101 | 4.70 | 10.40 | 1,488 | -47 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.68 | 955.70 | 3,180 | 8.70 | 15.30 | 1,201 | -565 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10,170 | 2,132 | -11 | -0.02 | 2,884 | 2,794 | 36,119 |
| 2017 | 10,505 | 2,236 | -550 | -0.83 | 2,489 | 2,465 | 33,112 |
| 2018 | 10,742 | 2,390 | 1,004 | 1.51 | 2,343 | 3,208 | 32,521 |
| 2019 | 10,190 | 2,166 | 302 | 0.45 | 2,466 | 2,996 | 33,648 |
| 2020 | 9,661 | 2,529 | 43 | 0.06 | 2,755 | 2,634 | 34,603 |
| 2021 | 11,142 | 2,547 | -413 | -0.62 | 1,902 | 2,798 | 32,963 |
| 2022 | 12,618 | 2,341 | -546 | -0.82 | 2,715 | 2,437 | 38,363 |
| 2023 | 12,676 | 2,260 | 242 | 0.34 | 3,034 | 2,488 | 44,799 |
| 2024 | 12,278 | 2,028 | 1,686 | 2.36 | 2,752 | 3,644 | 47,406 |
| 2025 | 12,233 | 1,970 | 949 | 1.33 | 4,306 | 6,887 | 51,768 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
AES owns real assets: 34,740 MW of generating capacity across roughly a dozen countries, two regulated U.S. utilities with statutory service territories, and grids serving 2.7 million customers. Property, plant and equipment stood at $39,290 million as of March 31, 2026. The 12.0 gigawatt backlog is contracted, not estimated.
The 2025 annual report names power demand from generative artificial intelligence explicitly as a growth driver for the Renewables segment. By its own account AES ranks among the two largest sellers of renewable power to corporations worldwide; the U.S. development pipeline covers 46 gigawatts and the U.S. backlog 7.6 gigawatts, with a construction budget of more than $12 billion.
Out of $12,233 million of revenue in 2025, the group kept $162 million — 1.3 percent. Interest expense alone was $1,407 million, more than eight times group net income. The $910 million reported for AES shareholders only arises because noncontrolling interests were allocated $748 million of losses.
For four straight years more went into assets than the business produced: from 2022 through 2025, $12,807 million of operating cash flow faced $25,596 million of capital expenditures. The $12,789 million gap was closed with debt, stake sales and tax credits. Debt stood at roughly $31.0 billion as of March 31, 2026.
Of $52,819 million in total assets as of March 31, 2026, only $4,420 million was AES Corporation stockholders' equity — 8.4 percent. Noncontrolling interests held more at $4,936 million, plus $2,895 million of redeemable stock of subsidiaries. The Altman Z bankruptcy warning score nonetheless sits at 3.42, well clear of the danger zone.
Since March 1, 2026 the market has been pricing the probability of a $15.00 closing rather than the business. Shareholders approved on June 26, 2026 and the offer carries no financing condition — but PUCO, the New York regulator, FERC, CFIUS and several non-U.S. authorities still have to sign off. If that fails, the valuation falls back onto the business this report describes.
The AES Corporation is an asset-heavy group with genuine substance: 34,740 megawatts of generating capacity, two regulated U.S. utilities, a contracted backlog of 12.0 gigawatts and, in the AI data center build-out, a demand surge its own annual report names. The earnings side does not keep up: $162 million of group net income on $12,233 million of revenue, $1,407 million of interest expense, four straight years of a gap between operating cash flow and capital spending — $12,789 million in total — and equity worth 8.4 percent of the balance sheet. Reported earnings for shareholders arise in large part from losses allocated to minority partners. Above all of it hangs a price tag: $15.00 per share in cash, accepted by shareholders on June 26, 2026. Anyone buying today is not buying a turnaround but a bet on regulators. Not investment advice.
- Hook: our in-house stock scanner "Turnaround Candidates", rank 29 of 60 U.S. hits, turnaround check 6 of 8, measured on both brands on July 27, 2026 (list computed July 26, 2026). The scanner page shows only the 25 strongest hits — AES ranks 29th and is not visible on the page itself. These lists are recalculated daily; rank and score are a snapshot.
- Cross-check on the mandatory pillar "at least 50 percent below the all-time high": the data set carries −67.03 percent and the price history confirms it. Highest split- and dividend-adjusted close $44.53 on October 2, 2000, close of $14.84 on July 24, 2026 — minus 66.7 percent. No value slipped by a factor of 1,000. The reference point does, however, come from the energy boom of 2000 and is therefore 26 years old.
- Takeover check before the analysis: no Form 15, no SC 14D9, no Form 25 for the common stock; the shares are still listed on the NYSE as of the data date. This is a Delaware statutory merger, not a public tender offer.
- Data as of: 10-K for 2025 filed March 2, 2026; 10-K for 2024 filed March 11, 2025 (supplies 2022); 10-Q as of March 31, 2026 filed May 5, 2026; 10-Q filings as of September 30, 2025, June 30, 2025 and March 31, 2025; merger proxy DEFM14A of May 15, 2026; current reports 8-K of March 2, June 12, June 16 and June 26, 2026; metrics and price history July 24 to 27, 2026.
- Risk of confusion: "AES" is also the name of a subsidiary of Astronics (ticker ATRO) and the abbreviation of an encryption standard. This analysis is exclusively about The AES Corporation, CIK 0000874761.
- The rating in this analysis judges the company, not the entry point. A scanner placement is an invitation to research, never a buy signal.
About the Company
The AES Corporation ist mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften ein Stromerzeugungs- und Versorgungsunternehmen. Es ist in vier Segmenten tätig: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure und New Energy Technologies.
| Employees | 8,336 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Arlington, VA |
| Address | 4300 Wilson Boulevard, 22203 Arlington, United States |
| Phone | 703 522 1315 |
| Website | aes.com |
| IPO Date | 25. Jun 1991 |
| ISIN | US00130H1059 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 06/02/2000 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert Ph.D. | CEO & Director | 1958 |
| Ricardo Manuel Falu | President | 1980 |
| Stephen Coughlin | Executive VP & CFO | 1972 |
| Juan Ignacio Rubiolo | Executive VP & COO | 1977 |
| Aubrey Jarred | Principal Accounting Officer, VP & Controller | 1986 |
| Susan Pasley Keppelman Harcourt | Vice President of Investor Relations | 1983 |
| Paul L. Freedman J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1970 |
| Letitia D. Mendoza | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1976 |
| Sherry L. Kohan | Chief Financial Officer of AES' U.S. Utilities Business | 1970 |
| Gustavo Garavaglia | VP & CFO of US Utilities | 1987 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.