Offerpad Solutions Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Our findings give no reason to read the low valuation as a favorable entry: a structurally loss-making business with a gross margin of around 7.4 percent, revenue down by more than 50 percent, a positive cash flow that comes only from selling off the stock of homes, and credit lines whose covenants had to be stretched in 2025 — that is a value trap, not substance. We see no margin of safety. Three things are worth following: whether revenue and homes sold turn back up, whether the gross margin improves, and how the credit covenants and the dilution develop. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Offerpad is an iBuyer in the same thin-margin, capital-hungry model as Opendoor: the full house prices run through the books as revenue, what sticks is a gross margin of roughly 7.4 percent — and a loss at the bottom ($46.4 million in 2025). Revenue collapsed from $3,952.3 million (2022) to $567.8 million (2025) and further to $80.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 (down 50.2 percent). The optically spectacular valuation (price-to-sales around 0.05) is no bargain but a mirror of the model: the positive cash flow comes from selling off the stock of homes, the debt ($93.3 million) exceeds the cash ($26.5 million), waivers of credit covenants had to be obtained in 2025, and a capital increase plus a 1-for-10 reverse split (June 2026) dilute and paper over. There is no formal going-concern statement. We see no discernible margin of safety. Not investment advice.
Business model & margin
iBuying is a capital-hungry, thin-margin model: Offerpad books the full house prices as revenue but keeps a gross margin of only around 7.4 percent (2025) — and a loss at the bottom. Since 2020 there has been exactly one profitable year (2021). Every bout of weakness in the housing market hits that narrow spread directly.
Revenue & unit sales
Revenue collapsed from $3,952.3 million (2022) to $567.8 million (2025, down 38.2 percent) and to $80.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 (down 50.2 percent); homes sold fell to 1,591 in 2025 and to 211 in the first quarter of 2026 (down 54 percent). The company is shrinking faster than it is healing.
Cash flow & balance sheet
A positive operating cash flow ($66.8 million in 2025) and no going-concern statement — but the inflow comes from running down the stock of homes (inventory down $109.4 million), not from profit. Debt of $93.3 million exceeds the cash position ($26.5 million); the deleveraging from $668 million to $93 million is real, yet the cash has shrunk as well.
Leverage & credit covenants
The homes are financed through secured senior and mezzanine credit facilities (borrowing base); those lines are the lifeline of the model. During 2025 "temporary waivers" of individual covenants (among them a minimum tangible net worth and leverage ceilings) had to be obtained — a sign of tension, even if not a default.
Valuation, dilution & governance
A price-to-sales ratio of roughly 0.05 and a price-to-book ratio of roughly 0.5 look cheap, but they are a consequence of the model and a thin cushion of substance respectively. An $18 million capital increase (January 2026), a running at-the-market share sales program and a 1-for-10 reverse split (June 2026) against a delisting dilute and paper over. Ownership is broadly spread (LL Capital 12.1 percent, First American 10.8 percent and at the same time a service provider, insiders 16.7 percent); no activist, no takeover.
Worth Noting
Materiality gate: (1) A thin margin plus inventory price risk — a gross margin of around 7.4 percent, $93.8 million of homes (more than 2x equity) on the balance sheet = a structural finding. (2) A revenue collapse of 50.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and roughly 86 percent against 2022, a business surviving by shrinking = a structural finding with existential proximity. (3) Debt of $93.3 million against $26.5 million of cash, warehouse and mezzanine lines with temporary covenant waivers in 2025 = a structural/existential finding (the credit lines are the lifeline, and the covenants have already been stretched). (4) Dilution (an $18 million capital increase in January 2026, an at-the-market program) plus a 1-for-10 reverse split against an NYSE delisting = a price finding. No formal existential finding: NO going-concern or substantial-doubt statement in the 10-K, a positive operating cash flow, deleveraging from $668 million to $93 million. The cluster of a structural finding plus near-existential credit dependence plus a revenue collapse carries the "open questions" rating — for "substance risk" the documented finding is missing, and for "quality demonstrated" the open points weigh too heavily. The low valuation does not determine the color: the rating says nothing about the entry price — that is what the ratio scanners are for.
Price and valuation figures are dated to mid-2026; analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. The market value of roughly $24 million refers to the roughly 4.7 million shares outstanding after the 1-for-10 reverse split (June 9, 2026); the 10 million new shares of the January 2026 direct placement are a pre-split count and correspond to roughly 1 million shares afterwards. The price-to-sales ratio of around 0.05 refers to the 2025 annual revenue ($567.8 million); on the declining current revenue (roughly $487 million on a trailing twelve-month view) it is slightly higher.
Special-situation screening (documented): no activist, no takeover, no rights plan or poison pill, no formal strategic-review press release, no reverse merger. The only "special case" is the delisting avoidance via the reverse split (NYSE minimum price, effective June 9, 2026). The Schedule 13G filings concern passive holders; the cluster of Form 4 filings in June 2026 is split-related. First American Financial Corporation (10.8 percent, the second-largest holder after LL Capital at 12.1 percent) is at the same time a related party (title and settlement services); Offerpad director Kenneth DeGiorgio was chief executive and a board member of First American until April 2025.
AI rating: uses. Offerpad applies machine learning and AI operationally in its "Offercomp" valuation engine (valuing more than 100,000 properties a year automatically, with computer-vision-supported renovation estimates) but generates no AI revenue — AI is a tool for pricing, not a revenue source. Supporting quotes are held in the company-specific AI file.
Side finding: the Wall Street price target (post-split) sits above the most recently traded level, yet revenue estimates keep drifting down and EPS estimates stay negative for the coming years. Short interest stands at roughly 12.6 percent of the free float — part of the market is betting on further price falls.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 4, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at OPAD since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 0.5401 $ to 5.70 $ · Last price: 3.50 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Real Estate Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offerpad Solutions Inc OPAD | 0.0 | – | 48.2 | 7.4 | – | -38.2 | -92.5 |
| CBRE Group Inc Class A CBRE | 40.6 | 33.0 | 24.3 | 18.6 | 2.7 | 13.4 | -14.9 |
| Ke Holdings Inc BEKE | 17.6 | 38.0 | 14.1 | 24.0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | -18.6 |
| Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL | 15.4 | 19.2 | 11.8 | 51.2 | 3.3 | 11.5 | 6.3 |
| CoStar Group Inc CSGP | 12.0 | 453.4 | 32.3 | 78.7 | 0.3 | 18.7 | -66.7 |
| Compass Inc COMP | 7.8 | 522.4 | 106.4 | 14.2 | -5.7 | 23.7 | 10.8 |
| Real Brokerage Inc REAX | 3.7 | – | -13.7 | 8.2 | – | 55.7 | -65.1 |
| Newmark Group Inc NMRK | 3.4 | 17.4 | 9.9 | 100.0 | 3.5 | 21.9 | -27.1 |
| Cushman & Wakefield plc CWK | 2.9 | 42.2 | 10.1 | 18.1 | 2.3 | 8.9 | -24.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 7.8 | 38.0 | 14.1 | 18.6 | 2.7 | 13.4 | -24.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 856 | -14 | -33 | -598.55 | -79 | – | – |
| 2019 | 1,076 | -33 | -52 | -154.89 | -109 | 33 | 386 |
| 2020 | 1,064 | -14 | -23 | -59.93 | 155 | -143 | 236 |
| 2021 | 2,070 | 20 | 6 | 6.77 | -922 | 258 | 1,353 |
| 2022 | 3,952 | -127 | -149 | -90.93 | 305 | 122 | 825 |
| 2023 | 1,314 | -104 | -117 | -44.43 | 262 | 102 | 380 |
| 2024 | 919 | -46 | -62 | -22.68 | 21 | 48 | 313 |
| 2025 | 568 | -33 | -46 | -12.46 | 67 | 38 | 155 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -3.66 | – | 174 | -27.50 | -9.90 | 33 | 29 |
| 2025: Q1 | -3.18 | – | 161 | -43.70 | -9.40 | -10 | -11 |
| 2025: Q2 | -2.30 | – | 160 | -36.20 | -6.80 | -14 | -14 |
| 2025: Q3 | -2.45 | – | 133 | -36.20 | -8.70 | 40 | 40 |
| 2025: Q4 | -1.86 | – | 114 | -34.50 | -7.70 | 51 | 51 |
| 2026: Q1 | -2.14 | – | 80 | -50.20 | -12.70 | 9 | 9 |
| 2026: Q2 | -1.94 | 15.70 | 78 | -51.50 | -12.00 | -26 | -26 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 1 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -7.19 | -7.49 – -6.90 | 409 | 53.3% | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | -3.56 | -5.83 – -2.20 | 639 | 50.6% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
With these assumptions (discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%), no growth rate between -20.0% and 60.0% per year explains today’s market value — the reverse calculation yields no meaningful figure here.
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $73.6M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $16.0M |
| Free cash flow in year ten | – |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | – |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow shrank by 15.4% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Offerpad setzt KI und maschinelles Lernen laut 10-K operativ im Kern seines iBuyer-Geschäfts ein: Die hauseigene automatisierte Bewertungs- und Renovierungs-Engine »Offercomp« bewertet jährlich mehr als 100.000 Häuser, computer-vision-gestützte Bilderkennung und »Smart Scoping« schätzen Renovierungskosten. KI ist damit Werkzeug der Preisfindung und Effizienz — aber keine eigene Umsatzquelle (Offerpad verkauft Häuser und Immobiliendienstleistungen, keine KI-Produkte). Daher »Nutzt KI«, nicht »Verkauft KI«.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We utilize machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze data at various stages throughout our process. Our in-house proprietary data analytics technology continuously collects and synthesizes market data with performance history from our real estate operations, forming a knowledge base that powers our pricing and valuation intelligence technology."
Wir setzen maschinelles Lernen und künstliche Intelligenz ein, um in verschiedenen Phasen unseres Prozesses Daten auszuwerten. Unsere hauseigene, proprietäre Datenanalyse-Technologie sammelt und verdichtet fortlaufend Marktdaten mit der Ergebnishistorie aus unserem Immobiliengeschäft und bildet so eine Wissensbasis, die unsere Preis- und Bewertungsintelligenz antreibt.
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
„We also use artificial intelligence technologies, including computer vision-enabled image recognition and ‘smart scoping’ to inform renovation estimates and improve our pricing model. Our proprietary automated valuation and renovation-modeling engine “Offercomp” uses the information from these sources to automatically value more than 100,000 properties each year."
Wir nutzen zudem KI-Technologien, darunter computer-vision-gestützte Bilderkennung und »Smart Scoping«, um Renovierungsschätzungen zu untermauern und unser Preismodell zu verbessern. Unsere proprietäre, automatisierte Bewertungs- und Renovierungs-Modellierungs-Engine »Offercomp« nutzt diese Informationen, um jährlich mehr als 100.000 Immobilien automatisch zu bewerten.
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-24 · 10-Q 2026-04-30
Rated on July 10, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -47.6%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 35.1%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 31.6%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -26.6%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 7.4%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 575 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -50.6%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 14.5%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
3/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -5.7%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 6.1%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 6.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 1
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -121.4%
- ROCE > 15% -50.6%
- Expected return > 10% 442.1%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Graboske Benjamin | Director | Other | 33,820 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Offerpad Solutions Inc. bietet zusammen mit seinen Tochtergesellschaften eine technologiegestützte Immobilienlösungsplattform in den USA an.
- Employees
- 140
- Headquarters
- Tempe, AZ
- Address
- 433 S. Farmer Avenue, 85281 Tempe, United States
- Phone
- 844 388 4539
- Website
- offerpad.com
- IPO Date
- 12/11/2020
- ISIN
- US67623L5057
- Stock Split
- 1:10 on 06/09/2026
- Stock Split
- 1:15 on 06/13/2023
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Bair | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1977 |
| Peter H. Knag | Chief Financial Officer | 1973 |
| Adam Martinez | Chief Legal Officer | 1978 |
| Chris Carpenter | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Cortney Read | Chief of Staff & VP of Investor Relations and Communications | – |
| Vaughn Bair | Chief Real Estate Officer | – |
| Jaidip Singh Ph.D. | Chief Pricing & Analytics Officer | – |
| Richard Ford | Chief Strategy Officer & President of Cash Offer Marketplace Headshot | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/08/2026 Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
- 08/31/2026 Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/18/2026 Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD): Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/03/2026 Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.