Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Our findings give no reason to read the low valuation as a favorable entry: a structurally loss-making business with a gross margin of around 7.4 percent, revenue down by more than 50 percent, a positive cash flow that comes only from selling off the stock of homes, and credit lines whose covenants had to be stretched in 2025 — that is a value trap, not substance. We see no margin of safety. Three things are worth following: whether revenue and homes sold turn back up, whether the gross margin improves, and how the credit covenants and the dilution develop. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Offerpad buys your house by the click, repairs it and hopes for the margin in between. On paper the stock looks dirt cheap: the market value equals barely five percent of one year of revenue. But at this "iBuyer" the revenue is almost everything and the profit is nothing — the gross margin is a little over seven percent, revenue halved within a year, and the handsome cash flow our filters pick up comes from selling off the company's own stock of homes. We read five SEC filings and did the arithmetic on what sits behind the mini valuation. No advice on what you should do - just an honest stocktake of a business model that is expensive precisely because it looks cheap.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 27, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at OPAD since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 1 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 3.90 $ — 59% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIOfferpad setzt KI und maschinelles Lernen laut 10-K operativ im Kern seines iBuyer-Geschäfts ein: Die hauseigene automatisierte Bewertungs- und Renovierungs-Engine »Offercomp« bewertet jährlich mehr als 100.000 Häuser, computer-vision-gestützte Bilderkennung und »Smart Scoping« schätzen Renovierungskosten. KI ist damit Werkzeug der Preisfindung und Effizienz — aber keine eigene Umsatzquelle (Offerpad verkauft Häuser und Immobiliendienstleistungen, keine KI-Produkte). Daher »Nutzt KI«, nicht »Verkauft KI«.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We utilize machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze data at various stages throughout our process. Our in-house proprietary data analytics technology continuously collects and synthesizes market data with performance history from our real estate operations, forming a knowledge base that powers our pricing and valuation intelligence technology."
Wir setzen maschinelles Lernen und künstliche Intelligenz ein, um in verschiedenen Phasen unseres Prozesses Daten auszuwerten. Unsere hauseigene, proprietäre Datenanalyse-Technologie sammelt und verdichtet fortlaufend Marktdaten mit der Ergebnishistorie aus unserem Immobiliengeschäft und bildet so eine Wissensbasis, die unsere Preis- und Bewertungsintelligenz antreibt.
„We also use artificial intelligence technologies, including computer vision-enabled image recognition and ‘smart scoping’ to inform renovation estimates and improve our pricing model. Our proprietary automated valuation and renovation-modeling engine “Offercomp” uses the information from these sources to automatically value more than 100,000 properties each year."
Wir nutzen zudem KI-Technologien, darunter computer-vision-gestützte Bilderkennung und »Smart Scoping«, um Renovierungsschätzungen zu untermauern und unser Preismodell zu verbessern. Unsere proprietäre, automatisierte Bewertungs- und Renovierungs-Modellierungs-Engine »Offercomp« nutzt diese Informationen, um jährlich mehr als 100.000 Immobilien automatisch zu bewerten.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-24 · 10-Q 2026-04-30
Rated on July 10, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 265.4% above the current price.
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -1.60 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -3.66 | – | 174 | -27.50 | -9.90 | 33 | 29 |
| 2025: Q1 | -3.18 | – | 161 | -43.70 | -9.40 | -10 | -11 |
| 2025: Q2 | -2.30 | – | 160 | -36.20 | -6.80 | -14 | -14 |
| 2025: Q3 | -2.45 | – | 133 | -36.20 | -8.70 | 40 | 40 |
| 2025: Q4 | -1.86 | – | 114 | -34.50 | -7.70 | 51 | 51 |
| 2026: Q1 | -2.14 | – | 80 | -50.20 | -12.70 | 9 | 9 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
iBuying is a capital-hungry, thin-margin model: Offerpad books the full house prices as revenue but keeps a gross margin of only around 7.4 percent (2025) — and a loss at the bottom. Since 2020 there has been exactly one profitable year (2021). Every bout of weakness in the housing market hits that narrow spread directly.
Revenue collapsed from $3,952.3 million (2022) to $567.8 million (2025, down 38.2 percent) and to $80.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 (down 50.2 percent); homes sold fell to 1,591 in 2025 and to 211 in the first quarter of 2026 (down 54 percent). The company is shrinking faster than it is healing.
A positive operating cash flow ($66.8 million in 2025) and no going-concern statement — but the inflow comes from running down the stock of homes (inventory down $109.4 million), not from profit. Debt of $93.3 million exceeds the cash position ($26.5 million); the deleveraging from $668 million to $93 million is real, yet the cash has shrunk as well.
The homes are financed through secured senior and mezzanine credit facilities (borrowing base); those lines are the lifeline of the model. During 2025 "temporary waivers" of individual covenants (among them a minimum tangible net worth and leverage ceilings) had to be obtained — a sign of tension, even if not a default.
A price-to-sales ratio of roughly 0.05 and a price-to-book ratio of roughly 0.5 look cheap, but they are a consequence of the model and a thin cushion of substance respectively. An $18 million capital increase (January 2026), a running at-the-market share sales program and a 1-for-10 reverse split (June 2026) against a delisting dilute and paper over. Ownership is broadly spread (LL Capital 12.1 percent, First American 10.8 percent and at the same time a service provider, insiders 16.7 percent); no activist, no takeover.
Offerpad is an iBuyer in the same thin-margin, capital-hungry model as Opendoor: the full house prices run through the books as revenue, what sticks is a gross margin of roughly 7.4 percent — and a loss at the bottom ($46.4 million in 2025). Revenue collapsed from $3,952.3 million (2022) to $567.8 million (2025) and further to $80.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 (down 50.2 percent). The optically spectacular valuation (price-to-sales around 0.05) is no bargain but a mirror of the model: the positive cash flow comes from selling off the stock of homes, the debt ($93.3 million) exceeds the cash ($26.5 million), waivers of credit covenants had to be obtained in 2025, and a capital increase plus a 1-for-10 reverse split (June 2026) dilute and paper over. There is no formal going-concern statement. We see no discernible margin of safety. Not investment advice.
- Materiality gate: (1) A thin margin plus inventory price risk — a gross margin of around 7.4 percent, $93.8 million of homes (more than 2x equity) on the balance sheet = a structural finding. (2) A revenue collapse of 50.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and roughly 86 percent against 2022, a business surviving by shrinking = a structural finding with existential proximity. (3) Debt of $93.3 million against $26.5 million of cash, warehouse and mezzanine lines with temporary covenant waivers in 2025 = a structural/existential finding (the credit lines are the lifeline, and the covenants have already been stretched). (4) Dilution (an $18 million capital increase in January 2026, an at-the-market program) plus a 1-for-10 reverse split against an NYSE delisting = a price finding. No formal existential finding: NO going-concern or substantial-doubt statement in the 10-K, a positive operating cash flow, deleveraging from $668 million to $93 million. The cluster of a structural finding plus near-existential credit dependence plus a revenue collapse carries the "open questions" rating — for "substance risk" the documented finding is missing, and for "quality demonstrated" the open points weigh too heavily. The low valuation does not determine the color: the rating says nothing about the entry price — that is what the ratio scanners are for.
- Price and valuation figures are dated to mid-2026; analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. The market value of roughly $24 million refers to the roughly 4.7 million shares outstanding after the 1-for-10 reverse split (June 9, 2026); the 10 million new shares of the January 2026 direct placement are a pre-split count and correspond to roughly 1 million shares afterwards. The price-to-sales ratio of around 0.05 refers to the 2025 annual revenue ($567.8 million); on the declining current revenue (roughly $487 million on a trailing twelve-month view) it is slightly higher.
- Special-situation screening (documented): no activist, no takeover, no rights plan or poison pill, no formal strategic-review press release, no reverse merger. The only "special case" is the delisting avoidance via the reverse split (NYSE minimum price, effective June 9, 2026). The Schedule 13G filings concern passive holders; the cluster of Form 4 filings in June 2026 is split-related. First American Financial Corporation (10.8 percent, the second-largest holder after LL Capital at 12.1 percent) is at the same time a related party (title and settlement services); Offerpad director Kenneth DeGiorgio was chief executive and a board member of First American until April 2025.
- AI rating: uses. Offerpad applies machine learning and AI operationally in its "Offercomp" valuation engine (valuing more than 100,000 properties a year automatically, with computer-vision-supported renovation estimates) but generates no AI revenue — AI is a tool for pricing, not a revenue source. Supporting quotes are held in the company-specific AI file.
- Side finding: the Wall Street price target (post-split) sits above the most recently traded level, yet revenue estimates keep drifting down and EPS estimates stay negative for the coming years. Short interest stands at roughly 12.6 percent of the free float — part of the market is betting on further price falls.
About the Company
Offerpad Solutions Inc. bietet zusammen mit seinen Tochtergesellschaften eine technologiegestützte Immobilienlösungsplattform in den USA an.
| Employees | 140 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Tempe, AZ |
| Website | offerpad.com |
| IPO Date | 11. Dec 2020 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Bair | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1977 |
| Peter H. Knag | Chief Financial Officer | 1973 |
| Adam Martinez | Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 1978 |
| Chris Carpenter | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Cortney Read | Chief of Staff & VP of Investor Relations and Communications | – |
| Vaughn Bair | Chief Real Estate Officer | – |
| Jaidip Singh Ph.D. | Chief Pricing & Analytics Officer | – |
| Richard Ford | Chief Strategy Officer & President of Cash Offer Marketplace Headshot | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.