Advance Auto Parts Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow here stands for an earnings and funding risk, not a solvency risk. Against red speaks the documented position: $2,956 million of cash and $896 million of undrawn credit at April 25, 2026, no note maturity before October 2027, a financial covenant that only springs into effect below a threshold, an Altman Z-score of 6.56, gross margin up to 45.1 percent and comparable store sales up 3.5 percent. Against green speaks equally documented evidence: $46 million of operating cash outflow in fiscal 2025 and $19 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, a net margin of 0.5 percent, a Piotroski score of 3 of 9, an equity ratio of 18.8 percent, $2,500 million of bank-financed accounts payable and quarterly interest expense up from $27 million to $65 million.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Advance Auto Parts has repaired the stores and not yet the balance sheet. Margin, comparable store sales and operating income are demonstrably turning upward, yet $46 million left the business through operations in fiscal 2025 and another $19 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The full cash balance of $2,956 million comes from two note issues at 7.000 and 7.375 percent whose interest consumed the entire operational gain in the first quarter of fiscal 2026: $24 million of net income, exactly as a year earlier. On top of that sit $2,500 million of supplier invoices in bank hands and an $89 million allowance against $491 million of gross receivables. Not investment advice.
Operational turn
Gross margin rose to 43.4 percent in fiscal 2025 from 37.5 percent, and to 45.1 percent in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 from 42.9 percent. Comparable store sales gained 0.8 percent in fiscal 2025 and 3.5 percent in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. An operating loss of $131 million for the quarter became operating income of $69 million.
Cash generation
Cash flows used in operating activities of continuing operations were $46 million in fiscal 2025, after plus $141 million (2024), plus $142 million (2023) and plus $623 million (2022). After $252 million of capital expenditures, the free cash outflow came to roughly $298 million; a further $19 million left the business in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
Balance sheet and funding
Equity of $2,213 million equals 18.8 percent of total assets of $11,799 million (April 25, 2026). Of $3,054 million in accounts payable, $2,500 million runs through supplier finance programs, and of $2,956 million in cash, $2,300 million sits as qualified cash with the lenders. The principal amount of notes outstanding rose from $1,800 million to $3,450 million.
Interest burden
Interest expense rose to $65 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 from $27 million a year earlier — roughly $210 million on an annualized basis, against other income of roughly $100 million. The cause is the August 2025 issuance of $975 million at 7.000 percent and $975 million at 7.375 percent.
Strength of the hook
Measured on July 27, 2026 the turnaround checklist yields exactly 6 of 8 points — the minimum for inclusion; 44 of the 60 hits in the U.S. selection sit on the same score, and AAP is not among the 25 shown. The mandatory pillars are met without dispute: roughly 77 percent below the all-time closing high of $241.91 set on November 15, 2021, and an Altman Z-score of 6.56. Alongside that stands a Piotroski score of 3 of 9.
Valuation
At a market value of roughly $3.4 billion (data as of July 26, 2026), price to sales is roughly 0.4 and price to book roughly 1.5. A trailing price to earnings ratio of roughly 50 says little at a net margin of 0.5 percent; analyst estimates imply a forward multiple between roughly 21 and 24. Of 28 opinions, 25 are holds, with a price target of roughly $60.
Worth Noting
Hook: a hit in our in-house turnaround scanner with the U.S. market filter, 6 of 8 points on the turnaround checklist, Altman Z-score 6.56. Of 60 hits, 44 sit on the same score; the scanner page shows only the 25 strongest and AAP is not among them. Measured July 27, 2026, underlying scanner run July 26, 2026; the lists are recalculated daily.
Data basis: annual report 10-K for fiscal 2025 (fiscal year ended January 3, 2026, filed February 13, 2026), quarterly report 10-Q for the period ended April 25, 2026 (filed May 21, 2026), shelf registration S-3ASR dated July 14, 2026, Forms 8-K dated March 10, 2026 and June 26, 2026; multiples and analyst views as of July 26, 2026, closing price July 24, 2026.
Comparability: all multi-year series are stated on continuing operations, that is, excluding the Worldpac wholesale business sold on November 1, 2024. Older data sets still show 2022 and 2023 including Worldpac ($11,155 million and $11,288 million of revenue instead of $9,149 million and $9,209 million).
Mind the calendar: fiscal 2025 ended January 3, 2026 and contained 53 weeks instead of 52; the first quarter at Advance Auto Parts runs sixteen weeks while the other three run twelve weeks each. Quarterly comparisons with other retailers are therefore not like for like.
On the distance from the all-time high: our data set carries −73.3 percent, while the unadjusted price history gives roughly −77 percent (all-time closing high $241.91 on November 15, 2021 against $55.80 on July 24, 2026). Both values clear the scanner threshold of at least 50 percent comfortably; the article uses our own measurement.
On market value: it is calculated from 60.3 million shares per the quarterly report cover page dated May 18, 2026 and the closing price of $55.80 on July 24, 2026, and it matches the value in the fundamental data. Displays using a different share count may show higher figures.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at AAP since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 38.80 $ to 63.00 $ · Last price: 42.00 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Auto Parts
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance Auto Parts Inc AAP | 2.6 | – | 8.0 | 45.1 | 3.8 | -5.4 | -31.7 |
| O’Reilly Automotive Inc ORLY | 68.8 | 29.1 | 18.8 | 51.6 | 18.5 | 6.4 | -18.8 |
| AutoZone Inc AZO | 44.9 | 20.5 | 14.2 | 51.7 | 19.1 | 2.4 | -32.6 |
| Hesai Group HSAI | 21.2 | 35.1 | 20.9 | 40.7 | -1.3 | 45.8 | -44.1 |
| Genuine Parts Co GPC | 18.0 | 311.7 | 32.9 | 37.6 | 5.8 | 3.5 | -2.6 |
| BorgWarner Inc BWA | 13.4 | 36.3 | 9.9 | 19.3 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 46.1 |
| Aurora Innovation Inc AUR | 12.8 | – | -4.0 | -15,980.0 | -24,400.0 | -100.0 | 10.2 |
| Allison Transmission Holdings Inc ALSN | 10.3 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 37.9 | 19.5 | -6.7 | 38.6 |
| Modine Manufacturing Company MOD | 9.8 | 74.6 | 32.8 | 22.2 | 11.8 | 23.1 | 21.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 13.4 | 35.1 | 14.2 | 37.9 | 9.9 | 2.4 | -2.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,568 | 788 | 460 | 6.22 | 523 | 2,916 | 8,315 |
| 2017 | 9,374 | 570 | 476 | 6.42 | 601 | 3,415 | 8,482 |
| 2018 | 9,581 | 604 | 424 | 5.73 | 811 | 3,551 | 9,041 |
| 2019 | 9,709 | 677 | 487 | 6.84 | 867 | 3,549 | 11,249 |
| 2020 | 10,106 | 750 | 493 | 7.14 | 970 | 3,560 | 11,840 |
| 2021 | 10,998 | 822 | 597 | 9.25 | 1,112 | 3,128 | 12,194 |
| 2022 | 9,149 | 525 | 464 | 7.65 | 722 | 2,599 | 11,986 |
| 2023 | 9,209 | 55 | 30 | 0.50 | 287 | 2,520 | 12,276 |
| 2024 | 9,094 | -404 | -336 | -5.63 | 85 | 2,170 | 10,798 |
| 2025 | 8,601 | 161 | 44 | 0.73 | -46 | 2,198 | 11,826 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -6.94 | – | 1,996 | -19.00 | -20.80 | -73 | -124 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.40 | -40.40 | 2,583 | -6.80 | 0.90 | -156 | -198 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.25 | -67.00 | 2,010 | -7.70 | 0.70 | 50 | -3 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.02 | – | 2,036 | -5.20 | 0.00 | -12 | -76 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.10 | – | 1,973 | -1.20 | 0.30 | 72 | -21 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.39 | -1.10 | 2,614 | 1.20 | 0.90 | -19 | -75 |
| 2026: Q3 | 0.90 | 4,600.00 | 2,000 | -1.80 | 2.80 | 271 | 195 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Earnings & Surprises
Momentum & Trend
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 2.99 | 2.69 – 3.41 | 8,526 | 32.4% | 24 |
| 12/31/2027 | 3.89 | 3.30 – 4.49 | 8,720 | 30.1% | 23 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 31.5% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $23.0M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.57B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $355.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 72.9% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Der Geschäftsbericht 2025 nennt den eigenen KI-Einsatz ausdrücklich — in IT-Systemen und in strategischen Initiativen; KI ist bei Advance Auto Parts jedoch keine Umsatzquelle, sondern ein internes Werkzeug.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Furthermore, the Company is currently using and intends to use innovative technologies, including artificial intelligence, in its business."
Darüber hinaus setzt das Unternehmen derzeit innovative Technologien einschließlich künstlicher Intelligenz in seinem Geschäft ein und beabsichtigt, dies weiterhin zu tun.
10-K · 2026-02-13 · View SEC filing
„Use of innovative technologies carries inherent risk, and we intend to use artificial intelligence in connection with strategic business initiatives."
Der Einsatz innovativer Technologien birgt naturgemäß Risiken, und wir beabsichtigen, künstliche Intelligenz im Zusammenhang mit strategischen Geschäftsinitiativen einzusetzen.
10-K · 2026-02-13 · View SEC filing
„The Company is in the process of designing, implementing and updating various information and technology systems, including replacing older legacy systems with successor systems, maintaining or enhancing legacy systems that are not being replaced, cloud migration and introducing new systems or functionality, including artificial intelligence."
Das Unternehmen entwirft, implementiert und aktualisiert derzeit verschiedene Informations- und Technologiesysteme — darunter der Ersatz älterer Altsysteme durch Nachfolgesysteme, die Wartung oder Verbesserung nicht ersetzter Altsysteme, die Cloud-Migration sowie die Einführung neuer Systeme oder Funktionen einschließlich künstlicher Intelligenz.
10-K · 2026-02-13 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-13 · 10-K 2025-02-26 · 10-Q 2026-05-21 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-14 · 10-Q 2025-05-22
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -2.0%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 2.5%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -8.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 43.4%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 5.1%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 6.6 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 588 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 2.1%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.8%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -1.2%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 0.7%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -16.2%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 131.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 13.0x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 9
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 3.7%
- ROCE > 15% 2.1%
- Expected return > 10% 104.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Johnson Richard A | Director | Other | 19 | 55.80 | 1,060 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jamison Cynthia T | Director | Other | 17 | 55.80 | 949 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Windom Brent | Director | Other | 43 | 55.80 | 2,399 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Lee Eugene I Jr | Director | Other | 388 | 55.80 | 21,650 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Smith Gregory L | Director | Other | 43 | 55.80 | 2,399 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Hilson Joan M | Director | Other | 58 | 55.80 | 3,236 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Ferraro John Francis | Director | Other | 119 | 55.80 | 6,640 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Bailo Carla Jean | Director | Other | 65 | 55.80 | 3,627 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Seboldt Thomas W | Director | Other | 45 | 55.80 | 2,511 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Seboldt Thomas W | Director | Other | 27 | 53.90 | 1,455 |
The company
About the Company
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. liefert Kfz-Aftermarket-Teile.
- Employees
- 28,274
- Headquarters
- Raleigh, NC
- Address
- 4200 Six Forks Road, 27609 Raleigh, United States
- Phone
- 540 362 4911
- Website
- shop.advanceautoparts.com
- IPO Date
- 11/29/2001
- ISIN
- US00751Y1064
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 09/26/2005
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 01/05/2004
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Shane M. O'Kelly | President, CEO & Director | 1970 |
| Ryan P. Grimsland | Executive VP & CFO | 1978 |
| Jeffrey R. Vining | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate secretary | 1977 |
| Bruce M. Starnes III | Executive VP & Chief Merchant | 1976 |
| Carlos A. Saladrigas CPA | Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Regis HR | 1949 |
| Michael Beland | Senior VP, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 1972 |
| Kunal Das | Senior Vice President & CTO | – |
| Lavesh Hemnani | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Anthony Sarlanis | Senior Vice President of Professional | – |
| Ronald H. Gilbert | Senior Vice President of Supply Chain | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/20/2026 ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.