Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Yellow here stands for an earnings and funding risk, not a solvency risk. Against red speaks the documented position: $2,956 million of cash and $896 million of undrawn credit at April 25, 2026, no note maturity before October 2027, a financial covenant that only springs into effect below a threshold, an Altman Z-score of 6.56, gross margin up to 45.1 percent and comparable store sales up 3.5 percent. Against green speaks equally documented evidence: $46 million of operating cash outflow in fiscal 2025 and $19 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, a net margin of 0.5 percent, a Piotroski score of 3 of 9, an equity ratio of 18.8 percent, $2,500 million of bank-financed accounts payable and quarterly interest expense up from $27 million to $65 million.
symbol.quality_note
After the loss year of 2024, Advance Auto Parts reported $44 million of net income for fiscal 2025, and our turnaround scanner has listed the stock as a turnaround candidate ever since. The bank statement tells a different story: $46 million flowed out of operations in the same year, close to $300 million after capital spending. The bill is paid with a $1.95 billion note issue at seven percent — and with $2.5 billion of supplier invoices now advanced by banks. Not investment advice — simply the question of whether this turnaround hit delivers what the earnings line promises.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 27, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at AAP since then.
Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 5 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 55.50 $ — 66% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIDer Geschäftsbericht 2025 nennt den eigenen KI-Einsatz ausdrücklich — in IT-Systemen und in strategischen Initiativen; KI ist bei Advance Auto Parts jedoch keine Umsatzquelle, sondern ein internes Werkzeug.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Furthermore, the Company is currently using and intends to use innovative technologies, including artificial intelligence, in its business."
Darüber hinaus setzt das Unternehmen derzeit innovative Technologien einschließlich künstlicher Intelligenz in seinem Geschäft ein und beabsichtigt, dies weiterhin zu tun.
„Use of innovative technologies carries inherent risk, and we intend to use artificial intelligence in connection with strategic business initiatives."
Der Einsatz innovativer Technologien birgt naturgemäß Risiken, und wir beabsichtigen, künstliche Intelligenz im Zusammenhang mit strategischen Geschäftsinitiativen einzusetzen.
„The Company is in the process of designing, implementing and updating various information and technology systems, including replacing older legacy systems with successor systems, maintaining or enhancing legacy systems that are not being replaced, cloud migration and introducing new systems or functionality, including artificial intelligence."
Das Unternehmen entwirft, implementiert und aktualisiert derzeit verschiedene Informations- und Technologiesysteme — darunter der Ersatz älterer Altsysteme durch Nachfolgesysteme, die Wartung oder Verbesserung nicht ersetzter Altsysteme, die Cloud-Migration sowie die Einführung neuer Systeme oder Funktionen einschließlich künstlicher Intelligenz.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-13 · 10-K 2025-02-26 · 10-Q 2026-05-21 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-14 · 10-Q 2025-05-22
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 8.8% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Hold
- Analyst Ratings
- 28
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 2.94 | 2.41 – 3.59 | 8,575 | 30.0% | 25 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.01 | 3.40 – 4.50 | 8,788 | 36.4% | 24 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.81 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -6.94 | – | 1,996 | -19.00 | -20.80 | -73 | -124 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.40 | -40.40 | 2,583 | -6.80 | 0.90 | -156 | -198 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.25 | -67.00 | 2,010 | -7.70 | 0.70 | 50 | -3 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.02 | – | 2,036 | -5.20 | 0.00 | -12 | -76 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.10 | – | 1,973 | -1.20 | 0.30 | 72 | -21 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.39 | -1.10 | 2,614 | 1.20 | 0.90 | -19 | -75 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,568 | 788 | 460 | 6.22 | 523 | 2,916 | 8,315 |
| 2017 | 9,374 | 570 | 476 | 6.42 | 601 | 3,415 | 8,482 |
| 2018 | 9,581 | 604 | 424 | 5.73 | 811 | 3,551 | 9,041 |
| 2019 | 9,709 | 677 | 487 | 6.84 | 867 | 3,549 | 11,249 |
| 2020 | 10,106 | 750 | 493 | 7.14 | 970 | 3,560 | 11,840 |
| 2021 | 10,998 | 822 | 597 | 9.25 | 1,112 | 3,128 | 12,194 |
| 2022 | 9,149 | 525 | 464 | 7.65 | 722 | 2,599 | 11,986 |
| 2023 | 9,209 | 55 | 30 | 0.50 | 287 | 2,520 | 12,276 |
| 2024 | 9,094 | -404 | -336 | -5.63 | 85 | 2,170 | 10,798 |
| 2025 | 8,601 | 161 | 44 | 0.73 | -46 | 2,198 | 11,826 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Gross margin rose to 43.4 percent in fiscal 2025 from 37.5 percent, and to 45.1 percent in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 from 42.9 percent. Comparable store sales gained 0.8 percent in fiscal 2025 and 3.5 percent in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. An operating loss of $131 million for the quarter became operating income of $69 million.
Cash flows used in operating activities of continuing operations were $46 million in fiscal 2025, after plus $141 million (2024), plus $142 million (2023) and plus $623 million (2022). After $252 million of capital expenditures, the free cash outflow came to roughly $298 million; a further $19 million left the business in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
Equity of $2,213 million equals 18.8 percent of total assets of $11,799 million (April 25, 2026). Of $3,054 million in accounts payable, $2,500 million runs through supplier finance programs, and of $2,956 million in cash, $2,300 million sits as qualified cash with the lenders. The principal amount of notes outstanding rose from $1,800 million to $3,450 million.
Interest expense rose to $65 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 from $27 million a year earlier — roughly $210 million on an annualized basis, against other income of roughly $100 million. The cause is the August 2025 issuance of $975 million at 7.000 percent and $975 million at 7.375 percent.
Measured on July 27, 2026 the turnaround checklist yields exactly 6 of 8 points — the minimum for inclusion; 44 of the 60 hits in the U.S. selection sit on the same score, and AAP is not among the 25 shown. The mandatory pillars are met without dispute: roughly 77 percent below the all-time closing high of $241.91 set on November 15, 2021, and an Altman Z-score of 6.56. Alongside that stands a Piotroski score of 3 of 9.
At a market value of roughly $3.4 billion (data as of July 26, 2026), price to sales is roughly 0.4 and price to book roughly 1.5. A trailing price to earnings ratio of roughly 50 says little at a net margin of 0.5 percent; analyst estimates imply a forward multiple between roughly 21 and 24. Of 28 opinions, 25 are holds, with a price target of roughly $60.
Advance Auto Parts has repaired the stores and not yet the balance sheet. Margin, comparable store sales and operating income are demonstrably turning upward, yet $46 million left the business through operations in fiscal 2025 and another $19 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The full cash balance of $2,956 million comes from two note issues at 7.000 and 7.375 percent whose interest consumed the entire operational gain in the first quarter of fiscal 2026: $24 million of net income, exactly as a year earlier. On top of that sit $2,500 million of supplier invoices in bank hands and an $89 million allowance against $491 million of gross receivables. Not investment advice.
- Hook: a hit in our in-house turnaround scanner with the U.S. market filter, 6 of 8 points on the turnaround checklist, Altman Z-score 6.56. Of 60 hits, 44 sit on the same score; the scanner page shows only the 25 strongest and AAP is not among them. Measured July 27, 2026, underlying scanner run July 26, 2026; the lists are recalculated daily.
- Data basis: annual report 10-K for fiscal 2025 (fiscal year ended January 3, 2026, filed February 13, 2026), quarterly report 10-Q for the period ended April 25, 2026 (filed May 21, 2026), shelf registration S-3ASR dated July 14, 2026, Forms 8-K dated March 10, 2026 and June 26, 2026; multiples and analyst views as of July 26, 2026, closing price July 24, 2026.
- Comparability: all multi-year series are stated on continuing operations, that is, excluding the Worldpac wholesale business sold on November 1, 2024. Older data sets still show 2022 and 2023 including Worldpac ($11,155 million and $11,288 million of revenue instead of $9,149 million and $9,209 million).
- Mind the calendar: fiscal 2025 ended January 3, 2026 and contained 53 weeks instead of 52; the first quarter at Advance Auto Parts runs sixteen weeks while the other three run twelve weeks each. Quarterly comparisons with other retailers are therefore not like for like.
- On the distance from the all-time high: our data set carries −73.3 percent, while the unadjusted price history gives roughly −77 percent (all-time closing high $241.91 on November 15, 2021 against $55.80 on July 24, 2026). Both values clear the scanner threshold of at least 50 percent comfortably; the article uses our own measurement.
- On market value: it is calculated from 60.3 million shares per the quarterly report cover page dated May 18, 2026 and the closing price of $55.80 on July 24, 2026, and it matches the value in the fundamental data. Displays using a different share count may show higher figures.
About the Company
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. liefert Kfz-Aftermarket-Teile.
| Employees | 28,274 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Raleigh, NC |
| Address | 4200 Six Forks Road, 27609 Raleigh, United States |
| Phone | 540 362 4911 |
| Website | shop.advanceautoparts.com |
| IPO Date | 29. Nov 2001 |
| ISIN | US00751Y1064 |
| Stock Split | 3:2 on 09/26/2005 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Shane M. O'Kelly | President, CEO & Director | 1970 |
| Ryan P. Grimsland | Executive VP & CFO | 1978 |
| Jeffrey R. Vining | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate secretary | 1977 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24. Jul 2026 | Johnson Richard A | Director | Other | 19 | 55.80 | 1,060 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Jamison Cynthia T | Director | Other | 17 | 55.80 | 949 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Windom Brent | Director | Other | 43 | 55.80 | 2,399 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Lee Eugene I Jr | Director | Other | 388 | 55.80 | 21,650 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Smith Gregory L | Director | Other | 43 | 55.80 | 2,399 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Hilson Joan M | Director | Other | 58 | 55.80 | 3,236 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Ferraro John Francis | Director | Other | 119 | 55.80 | 6,640 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Bailo Carla Jean | Director | Other | 65 | 55.80 | 3,627 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Seboldt Thomas W | Director | Other | 45 | 55.80 | 2,511 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Seboldt Thomas W | Director | Other | 27 | 53.90 | 1,455 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.