One Gas Inc — Earnings Call Q3 2026
Operator: Good day, and Welcome to the ONE Gas Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Eric Biggers. Please go ahead, Mr. Biggers. Eric Biggers: Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast live, and a replay will be available later today. After our prepared remarks, we are happy to take your questions. A reminder that statements made during this call that might include ONE Gas expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities Act of 1933, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings. This call will include financial results and guidance with respect to adjusted net income and adjusted net income per share, which are non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. A reconciliation of the company's GAAP net income and GAAP earnings per share to adjusted net income and adjusted net income per share, along with additional disclosures required by Regulation G, are available in the earnings release we issued yesterday. Joining us this morning are Sid McAnnally, Chief Executive Officer, Chris Sighinolfi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Curtis Dinan, President and Chief Operating Officer. Now I'll turn the call over to Sid. Sid McAnnally: Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another strong quarter, and the message today is simple: our strategy is working. Third quarter adjusted earnings per share increased 13% year-over-year to $0.53, driven by execution across the business. Equally important, we saw the operating leverage we expected, with O&M essentially flat year-over-year, despite higher activity levels and external pressures which did not exist in the year-ago period. This performance gives us confidence to again raise our 2026 guidance. We now expect adjusted earnings per share of $4.95-$5.01, above our previously raised range. Our 2026 financing plan is complete, with no additional equity needs for the year. This financial output is the clearest evidence of the strength and resilience of our durable growth model. We are benefiting from constructive regulatory frameworks, disciplined cost management, and continued customer growth. At the same time, our opportunity set is expanding. We continue to see large load demand developing across our service territories, including new CNG and LNG-related opportunities, further demonstrating the versatility and importance of natural gas to our region's growth. We are pursuing that growth with discipline. We are focused on opportunities that fit our regulated business model, strengthen our system, and create long-term value. The addition of large load volumes allows us to spread system costs across a broader base, supporting affordability and keeping our 2026 customer bills flat to last year. As we enter the final quarter of the year, we do so from a position of strength, executing well today, raising our financial outlook, and building an increasingly compelling set of opportunities for tomorrow. Chris will walk through the quarter and our updated outlook in more detail. Chris? Chris Sighinolfi: Thanks, Sid, and good morning, everyone. As Sid noted, our third quarter performance was broad-based. Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.53 from $0.47 in the year-ago period. No single line item drove the improved performance this quarter. New rates and customer growth supported net margin. Texas House Bill 4384 provided incremental benefits, and as expected, O&M performance improved meaningfully from the first half of the year. Together, these factors elevated operating income and support the guidance raise we announced in yesterday's release. Texas House Bill 4384 remains an important part of our story, as it reduces regulatory lag on eligible capital placed into service between rate filings. The benefit varies by quarter based on the timing of capital expenditures and the annual Gas Reliability Infrastructure Program cycle. As expected, the third quarter represented a smaller contribution than the quarters before it. The eligible capital balance will build again as we place additional investments in service. The legislation is working as the state intended, but it is just one of several drivers supporting this year's earnings growth. Our O&M performance deserves additional context. Expense was flat year-over-year in the third quarter, markedly lower than the 7.5% year-over-year increase we experienced during the first half of this year. This step-down is consistent with the cadence we described on our second quarter call. This O&M result was achieved in a demanding operating environment. Line locate ticket volumes were up more than 7%. Auto fuel prices added nearly $1.5 million of additional expense, and employee-related expenses were higher. We absorbed these pressures and held O&M in line with 2025, reflecting the benefits of our insourcing efforts, tighter work planning, and disciplined day-to-day cost management. We expect moderate O&M growth in the fourth quarter and affirm our long-term expectation for annual O&M growth of 3%-4%. As I've noted on prior calls, capacity release has provided another offset this year. We entered the refill season with more gas in storage than we had planned. Our gas supply team used this available transportation capacity to create value rather than allow it to sit idle. These actions helped offset the financial effect of lower first quarter usage associated with the warm weather and benefited customers under applicable sharing mechanisms. Through the first nine months of the year, we recorded $3.7 million in capacity release benefits, with an equal amount captured by our customers. Turning to financing, we have no additional financing needs for the remainder of 2026. Given financial outperformance, our equity needs for the year are covered by existing forward sale agreements at approximately $82 per share. In August, we placed a 10-year senior note at a coupon of 5.45%, addressing this year's long-term credit financing needs at an attractive rate. Our next debt maturity is not until the second quarter of 2029. Our near-term exposure to interest rates remains primarily through our use of commercial paper. For example, at average planned levels of commercial paper, a hypothetical 100 basis point full-year movement in the Fed funds rate would impact full-year adjusted EPS by approximately $0.09. Long-term debt costs are recoverable in customer rates. We have been conservative in our planning for such issuances, so the recent movement in long-end yields does not materially alter our outlook. As we have noted, based on our year-to-date performance, we now expect adjusted net income to range between $313 million and $317 million, with adjusted EPS guidance of $4.95-$5.01. Our new adjusted EPS range is entirely above our original 2026 guidance. We look to share more about our 2027 and long-term guidance plan in early December. Yesterday, the ONE Gas board of directors declared a dividend of $0.68 per share, unchanged from the previous quarter. Now I'll turn to regulatory activities. Our 2026 interim filings are complete, and current rates in all three states reflect the full requested amounts contained in this year's respective filings. We believe our interim mechanisms help support timely recovery of capital investments, and having them concluded provides additional visibility as we close out the year. In Kansas, the Gas System Reliability Surcharge became effective in October and provides a $14.3 million annual revenue increase. This compares with $7.2 million requested and approved in 2025 and reflects the broader recovery provisions enacted under House Bill 2435. In Texas, our GRIP filing became effective in July and provides a $36.9 million annual revenue increase. Following consolidation, this marked our first statewide GRIP filing and reflects investments across the Texas system. In Oklahoma, interim rates associated with our Performance-Based Rate Change application became effective in June and provide a $28.7 million annual revenue increase. In mid-October, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission approved the ALJ's recommendation as filed. We expect to file our next Oklahoma general rate case in 2027, as required by tariff. Now, Curtis, I will turn things to you. Curtis Dinan: Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will start with operations. As Chris noted, our coworkers managed a higher level of activity and still delivered better outcomes. Locate tickets increased 7% year-over-year, and most importantly, our damages per 1,000 locate tickets, a common industry metric, decreased 5% during the period. This is the type of improvement we expected from bringing more work in-house. Insourcing gives us greater control over training, scheduling, and work quality. We continue to advance line locating and Watch and Protect initiatives, and both the operating and financial benefits are becoming clearer as these programs mature. Capital execution remains on track. We completed approximately $229 million of projects during the quarter and $587 million through September. We continue to expect approximately $800 million of capital investment for the year. While the majority of this investment supports system integrity, safety, and reliability, an increasing percentage supports growth projects, allowing us to respond to increasing customer demands. We view customer growth as one connected opportunity set. Residential growth remains consistent with recent years, while commercial, industrial, and large load activity is adding another layer of opportunity. These projects allow us to increase revenue while improving utilization of existing assets and supporting affordability for all customers. Our data center project in Oklahoma City is an example of this. We were able to use our existing system and make targeted additions to meet the customer's needs. The project adds meaningful volume in one of our strongest growth markets and demonstrates how natural gas infrastructure can support the power requirements of new large load developments. Our line is complete, and we anticipate the customer initiating service this month. Our project to serve an advanced manufacturing facility in El Paso is complete and will support 100 MW of on-site generation. This represents another type of our evolving customer profile. It also demonstrates the breadth of the opportunity across our footprint. A third project demonstrates our agility and the diversity of opportunities. A recent LNG-related opportunity in Texas was not part of our discussion on the second quarter call, but it entered our project funnel soon afterwards. We have completed our commercial and technical reviews and are finalizing the project. We expect the project to begin construction this quarter and enter service in the first quarter of 2027. Projects like these are well-suited to our system, as they primarily leverage existing infrastructure. This reduces execution time and incremental capital while supporting an attractive customer outcome. They also demonstrate the value of the screening process we have built, allowing us to quickly identify opportunities that fit our regulated model and efficiently advance qualified projects toward service. Western Farmers is still our largest project under development. The project remains on schedule, and we continue to expect an in-service date in the third quarter of 2028. As a reminder, that project is the construction of a 43 m, 24 in pipeline that will support a gas-fired generation facility in southern Oklahoma. Taken together, these four large load projects represent approximately $22 million of additional annual revenue and $200 million of associated capital, and the opportunity set continues to build. I have mentioned six late-stage opportunities on prior calls, and new opportunities have been added to the list. Today, we have eight projects in late-stage development, representing approximately 3 GW of generation and up to 1 BcF per day of potential demand. We also have 20 additional opportunities in the early stages of evaluation and will provide updates as they advance. As we pursue these opportunities, customer affordability remains at the center of our strategy. New large load opportunities spread fixed system costs across more usage. The result is a balanced growth strategy that supports residential development, major economic expansion projects, and customer affordability all at the same time. We are also investing in safety and reliability while adding new revenue, and we can do it while continuing to provide affordable natural gas service to 2.3 million customers. Sid, I'll turn it back to you. Sid McAnnally: Thanks, Curtis. We have a strong core business supported by constructive regulatory frameworks and access to abundant natural gas supply. Our infrastructure is positioned near growing communities and emerging demand. Our teams continue to turn these advantages into growth and create value for customers and shareholders. I want to thank our coworkers for their focus and execution. I'm proud to work alongside them. We look forward to providing our annual guidance and long-term outlook in early December. Operator, we're now ready for questions. Operator: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll pause for a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. Our first question will come from the line of Constantine Lednev with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Constantine Lednev: Hi. Good morning, team. Congrats on a great quarter. Sid McAnnally: Thanks, Constantine. Constantine Lednev: Maybe just starting off on the upcoming Oklahoma rate case. Do you anticipate any unusual requests beyond reconciling invested capital, things like O&M cost inflation or any opportunities to reconcile cost of capital with what we're seeing with interest rates and tightness there? Chris Sighinolfi: Hi, Constantine. It's Chris. Our PBR mechanism, unlike the capital recovery mechanisms in the other states, does keep us fairly current with operating cost expenses. We get a cost of service true-up in that filing. I think the things you've focused on are the things we've been focused on. Cost of capital obviously has moved up pretty significantly on the credit side and on the equity side. There's some provisions that have been introduced in some of other states that make discretionary capital allocations to those states more attractive, and I think we'd seek to rectify that or balance that in Oklahoma. Constantine Lednev: Great. Maybe as a follow-up, any thoughts around risks or opportunities with the OCC turnover, pending the election outcome? Chris Sighinolfi: Not from our vantage point. We have two commissioners that will remain on the commission. Obviously, today will settle who their third counterpart is. But those are all folks known to us. I think they have a shared mindset and a track record that can be examined. That is where we get to the view. I think we feel comfortable going into that case. Constantine Lednev: And just one quick follow-up, I guess for Curtis or maybe Sid. Just in terms of kind of the upside that you are seeing from these large load opportunities and the positioning there, is there any way to frame CapEx sensitivity, timing, and kind of reconciling with the longer term 5%-7% EPS growth? Curtis Dinan: Hey, this is Curtis, Constantine. Good to talk to you this morning. I think the way it is really hard to put it into a square box, so to speak, because each of these deals is a little bit different in terms of capital contributions, proximity to our system, which impacts the timing of how quickly they can come along. If you think about the four projects I mentioned, two of those, Western Farmers, much longer lead time, it is a much larger project, more capital-intensive, versus the project that three months ago on this call was not even on our radar at that point. So that one came in, and we are going through the analysis, and we expect to start construction this quarter and go into service next quarter. They vary all over the board, and that is why I was trying to emphasize the need, number one, for our teams to stay agile in responding to the opportunities that are there. They do that by being in the market, working with the commerce departments, with different economic development arms, so they have a good sense of what is happening in our three service territories. And then putting those through our funnel, we can quickly analyze and respond to which of those we should be involved with and which of those really should go to someone else to work on. So, what we will do for you is, as those become in greater light and better sensitivity around them, we will share that with you, just as we have done on the past couple of calls, that will help you update your model through that period. Sid McAnnally: Constantine, I'll take the second half of that question. To Curtis's point, we're seeing a good bit of diversity, and the real advantage for us is where our system is relative to growth in our service territory. We're just very fortunate to have a very dynamic service territory right now and opportunities that are across the spectrum, and we like that diversity. We think it de-risks the growth profile that we see. In terms of how CapEx impacts our growth CAGR, we really look forward to having the chance to visit with you about that in early December when we provide our forward guidance. Constantine Lednev: Excellent. Understood. Really appreciate the time today, and congrats again. Sid McAnnally: Thanks so much. Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Managing Director and Head of U.S. Power, Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Research Hey. Good morning, team. Thank you guys very much for the opportunity here. Appreciate it. Sid McAnnally: Good morning. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Managing Director and Head of U.S. Power, Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Research You guys hear me okay? We can. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Managing Director and Head of U.S. Power, Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Research Good morning. Look, without getting ahead of the forthcoming guidance here, how should we think about the key puts and takes for 2027? I mean, just as you think about the baseline here, can you talk to the weather advantages that you have in 2026 and just the year-over-year comps in terms of being or executing within your CAGR targets from a 2026-2027 perspective? You've got so much of a tailwind in 2026 already. Just want to make sure we are calibrating appropriately, maybe is the term of art. Chris Sighinolfi: Hey, Julien. This is Chris. It's a great question. I would characterize it this way, that there have emerged over the course of the past year a number of structural benefits. We've talked about the legislative yield of what the state passed in Texas last year. We had originally expected about a $0.35 adjusted EPS impact from that. Today, I'd see it more along the lines of $0.45 in this year's number. That really has to do with processes that we've improved upon internally, whether that be a field process or back office process that can get things closed and into service more rapidly. I think those are structural in nature, and those will carry forward. The legislative change in Kansas, which broadened the capital applicable for the GSRS mechanism. You see in my prepared remarks today our $14-ish million GSRS outcome this year versus $7 million in the year ago period. That really just reflects the broadening of capital. That I would see as a structural benefit. The improvements that Curtis has talked about for a number of quarters about insourcing and the bending of the cost curve on O&M, but at the same time yielding operational benefits, that I see as structural and something that can continue. Then the emergent large load opportunities. Those continue to spool up, and our processes, I think, are far more mature now in terms of how to swiftly evaluate those and commercialize those and bring those into execution. So those are sort of all structural beneficial items that I think you should take into account as you think about the future. Then you offset that maybe with some cyclical headwinds. You have written about, others have written about the fact that the Fed raised rates in September, and if you look at the dot plot, has pegged another interest rate hike for the end of the year. Looks like their dot plot is stable in 2027 off of the end of 2026, but that would be higher than where we had assumed it to be. Fuel prices, I have noted. Those are also, I would characterize as cyclical headwinds. So, there are structural benefits, there are cyclical headwinds. The structural benefits greatly outweigh, in my mind, the cyclical headwinds, particularly when those cyclical headwinds start to alleviate. Then the final thing, just because you raised it, is weather. Weather was still a headwind on 2026's results, despite the capacity release benefits that we were able to take into account. You've seen from our IR materials for several years now, the mechanical nature of the ONG rate case timing and the fact that we were already expecting 2027 earnings growth to be below trend, just given the absence of the PBR and the more lengthy process associated with prosecuting a full general rate case. Sid McAnnally: Julien, a couple of other ideas, just pulling up another 10,000 ft or so. I think the fact that we have demonstrated a level of performance through 2026 gives us a good bit of momentum as we go into 2027 and we think about the forward plan. We've had the opportunity to see the yield of the insourcing that we've been talking about for years, as Curtis pointed out. We have continued to make conservative assumptions, and those have served us well. I think we're starting to see the virtue of increased internal funding, so equity overhangs are lessened, and you see us able to satisfy our equity for 2026 in a way that was very efficient. Finally, Chris mentioned large load projects. I think if you go back and look at our move into larger projects with the Austin System Reinforcement Project, it allowed us to build a muscle around responding to growth opportunities that was flexed with the Western Farmers Project, a much larger project in terms of scale and throughput, and with a commercial counterparty. The development of that commercial flexibility has allowed us to pursue the opportunities that Curtis is talking about, whether they're very short term because they're proximate to our system, or they're longer term and we're working with folks across our region. One of the things that we're excited about as we look toward guidance in 2027 is a level of confidence in our ability to execute around this and the virtuous outcome that's come from the work that we've done over the past three years to prepare for these opportunities. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Managing Director and Head of U.S. Power, Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Research Got it. It sounds like, look, you obviously had an incredible 2026 on a variety of different factors, but it sounds like you still have hope to be able to maintain the trajectory into 2027. Maybe to nitpick a little bit, how do you think about those large loads? I mean, you even speak here about some of the CNG and LNG opportunities. Are those timely for 2027, or how do you think about the funnel of opportunities translating into more tangible revenue uplifts, if you will? Curtis Dinan: Julien, this is Curtis. Let me just kind of walk through a couple of those buckets. One of the four that I mentioned in my comments, two of those we expect to be in service here in the fourth quarter and contribute full year of revenues next year. One of those, the LNG opportunity that I referenced, we do expect that to come online in the first quarter of next year. Of the eight late stage, I would expect over the next one to two quarters that we will have more to share around those, the nature of those projects and the timing of it. As the point that Sid was making, these vary across all three of our service territory. There are opportunities in each, and it ranges from the data centers that everybody talks about, but it is also importantly advanced manufacturing, it is traditional manufacturing, it is CNG, LNG, and electric generation, utility scale generation. Obviously, there is the Western Farmers and there are other opportunities with folks that we are talking to about possibilities down the line. Those larger projects, like utility scale, obviously take a bit longer, not only for perhaps the natural gas assets, but the construction that the generation takes to get put into place. So, there is a combination of some that are very near-term hits and then some that we are building for the future that will fill in buckets in 2028, 2029, and 2030. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Managing Director and Head of U.S. Power, Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Research Got it. Just a quick one, more thematic or to the moment. The strong El Niño has got folks across the natural gas market very much focused on the prospects for this winter. How do you think about your planning and latitude within your own outlook? Again, I know that this is more of myopic 2026, but also 2027 here. How do you think about the, again, the latitude, whether it is cost flexibility or capacity release or otherwise, to adapt to another warm winter and stay on schedule? Again, I get that you have to plan against a normal weather scenario, but again, just for the purpose of what we see coming here, if you have any comments or thoughts. Sid McAnnally: Sure, Julien. I think you can look back at the operation of our weather norms and see good performance. They functioned as they were designed to function. 2026 was an interesting year because we had, as you point out, a very mild winter, but it is easy to forget that we had a significant winter storm spike right in the middle of no winter. So, to a degree, it was an anomaly when you think about the way that weather normalization works and the way that it is intended to work. So, we do not have concerns about the function of our weather norm. When you think about the challenges that systems face, I would pull back and even go broader than your question and say, you look at what has happened since Winter Storm Uri and the way that we were able to adapt our system to that storm. We had very few outages, as you know, but we also learned how to harden the system in a way that prepares us, whether we have a very harsh winter or we have a very mild winter. The capacity release that Chris mentioned, and you repeat, I think is just an example of the flexibility of our mechanisms and the way that our folks are able to sort of shift into whatever is required to best serve our stakeholders. We feel pretty good about the way that we go into 2027, both from an operational perspective and a regulatory perspective. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Managing Director and Head of U.S. Power, Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Research Excellent, guys. Thank you. See you soon. Okay. Thank you, Julien. Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Dylan Lipner with Mizuho. Please go ahead. Dylan Lipner: Hey, everyone. Congrats on a good quarter. Just wanted to kind of touch more on this new Texas LNG project that you mentioned, just kind of give like size and scope of it, and if you're seeing any more projects that are in that late stage or that early stage opportunities that you mentioned. Curtis Dinan: Dylan, this is Curtis, and I don't have a lot of details to share because our customer hasn't announced those details, so we would wait for them to do that. To your broader question, there are other opportunities like that in Texas that folks are pursuing and that we're in, one of them, very late-stage discussions to do both CNG as well as electric generation for the grid. I think those projects both demonstrate a changing interest in where our product can be utilized and how other companies are looking to take advantage of that. Again, we'll continue to provide more detail as our customers do that and as those advance along in the commercialization of those projects. Dylan Lipner: Understood. The capital that was going to that project, that part included in the $100 million for 2026? Curtis Dinan: That project is being funded by us, yes. Dylan Lipner: Got you. Okay, great. That is all I got, and I appreciate the color there. Congrats on a good quarter again. Sid McAnnally: Thanks so much, and thanks for the question. Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg. Please go ahead. Paul Fremont: Thanks, and congratulations on a good quarter. I have my first question. Good morning. Have you guys considered using interest rate swaps to hedge some of the exposure on your short-term debt? Chris Sighinolfi: Hey, Paul. This is Chris. Yes, we have. We have studied that extensively over the course of the past year. We spoke to it a little bit in response to a question on the second quarter call. We studied it, and we know how the mechanism works. We know how we would implement it, but it wasn't attractive to us, and we did not take action on it, and I don't expect, given the current framework, that we would. But we have explored it, and we know what that looks like. Paul Fremont: Got it. Second question on the eight projects that are in late stage. Can you give us any quantification of the capital spending that opportunity that goes with those eight projects? Curtis Dinan: Paul, this is Curtis, and at this point, where the stages that those are, we're also negotiating what that funding would look like. So, in some of these cases, it will be more customer-funded or fully customer-funded, and some of these will be funded entirely by the company. So, it depends on the nature of the product, the project that we're putting into place, what other uses for that expansion we may be able to utilize, as well as what the revenue is that it's generating. Keep in mind that every project also goes through a prudency review, so we have to meet our prudency requirements in each of our three states, which serves to protect our existing customer base. Each one of those will vary a little bit, and like I did on the four projects we talked about, we'll continue to provide that additional guidance, both in terms of revenue and capital, once they get to that point. So, again, as I mentioned on a comment earlier, it's a little hard to put them in a square box to say, "Think about it this way, if you have this volume or this number of projects," because it can be the project like the LNG project I described that is very close to our system, will take minimal time to connect, or a longer-term, fuller, much larger development like the Western Farmers Project that takes a number of years to execute. It's across that whole spectrum that we see in that next eight projects that I mentioned. Sid McAnnally: Paul, as you know Paul Fremont: Right Sid McAnnally: This is all done in a regulated environment, so we are also mindful of the affordability implications for all of these, and really pleased that we are able to have the kind of performance that we have had in 2026 and still perform very well from an affordability perspective. Paul Fremont: No, and I think I get it, but first of all, I think investors are mostly focused on the capital that you would be putting up in projects as opposed to the portion that potentially would be funded by the customer. Is there sort of like a maybe a general type number? Are we talking $100+ million? Are we talking In other words, without giving sort of a specific project-by-project breakout, I think investors just want to know order of magnitude. Are we talking $50 million, $100 million? What general neighborhood does that opportunity represent? That would just be for your portion of the spend, not for anything that is funded by the customer. Curtis Dinan: Yeah. Again, Paul, I appreciate the desire to have the greater breadth and depth into those numbers, but it really is I know the total estimates of those projects, but until commercial negotiation is complete, I really cannot get more specific around what those dollars may look like across those projects. But we will make, when we put out our updated five-year guidance, the projects that we expect and the capital we are expecting, we will have that included in as part of that guidance, both in terms of revenue and in terms of the capital that we project needing over the five-year plan. Paul Fremont: Great. Thank you very much. Sid McAnnally: Thank you, Paul. Operator: Our next question will come from the line of David Paz with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. David Paz: Hey, good morning. Sid McAnnally: Good morning, David. David Paz: Thank you for the helpful color on the 2027 drivers, Chris. Appreciate that. One maybe related mechanical question. Next month, are you planning to rebase the new CAGR off the original 2026 guide or today's revised guide? Chris Sighinolfi: Hi, David. It's Chris. Yeah, thanks for the earlier appreciation of my comments. In terms of rebasing, it has always been our practice to use the midpoint of the current guidance as the anchor point. So we would not use an adjusted EPS of $4.89. We would instead use the $4.98 midpoint of what we've released today. That would be consistent with past action. That's our intention. David Paz: Great. Thank you. I know you subsequently rebased off the 2025 actuals earlier this year, and I think at the time you pointed to 2030 of about $6. Just given the drivers that you noted earlier today and maybe using the current interest rate curve, is there any indication that you will not be around that $6 or even better? Chris Sighinolfi: We'll have a full refresh in December. I think if you go back to the conversation I was having with Julien about structural elements versus cyclical elements, there are elements that have emerged in our story that were not present a year ago that I would say is structural in nature and beneficial. It's a matter, I think, for you to determine amongst the cyclical headwinds, have they abated by that point? For example, if you were to look at what the FOMC says about itself, at least in its latest dot plot, by 2030, it is very much on a path towards neutrality as they've identified it at 3%. Does that hold? Do you use that? Do you have to use some economist forecast at Wolfe Research? I mean, I don't know what your process is versus another analyst. It has been our practice to have a view that's informed by what those actors say about their own actions. That's probably as much as I'm comfortable saying today. David Paz: Fair enough. That's why I did say the current interest rate curve, but fair enough. Maybe one last question. Just within the 2027-2030 planning period, as you stand today, and I know you're going to give us an update, but I think you said you're all done with equity for this year, but should we still assume, again, just through 2030, the same amount of total equity needs that you identified earlier this year? Chris Sighinolfi: Yeah, we've made no change in that comment. You have two things sort of counteracting. One is outperformance of the business, and two is the opportunities Curtis is talking about that will be consumptions of cash. How those two things net each other out in the revised plan, you will see in a matter of a couple of weeks. But at this point, I think it's safe to assume the same range we had provided to you before. David Paz: Great. Thank you. Sid McAnnally: Thank you, David. Operator: Again, press star one to ask a question, and our next question will come from the line of David Rohlfs with Bank of America. Please go ahead. David Rohlfs: Hey, guys. Thanks for the time. Within large load, the CNG and the LNG opportunities, just wondering if you could compare and contrast those versus a traditional data center large load, separating with it any kind of additional timeline risk, differences in economics, new challenges, how much existing infrastructure versus new is needed. Any color there would be helpful. Curtis Dinan: Yeah, David, this is Curtis. Let me just use a couple of the examples that I was referencing earlier. In terms of your question around the ability to respond, it really depends on where each of those customers decides to locate their facilities and what type of facilities those are. In the case of the LNG opportunity, that is not construction of a large facility. They bring those trains in on semi-trailers, effectively, and so they can go into service very quickly. For us to expect to start construction this quarter and it to be in service next quarter, that tells you it's pretty proximate to our location, where we already have assets and our ability to respond pretty quickly, and the customer's ability to be on site and up and running very quickly. In the case of data centers, as you know, those take quite a while to construct physically, the buildings themselves, as well as all the internal components and everything. So, those take a little bit longer to develop and for us to begin service to those. Most of the projects that we're talking about, and those that we focus on, are those where we're going to be really the opportunity for that customer to get gas service. So, we're able to collect our tariff to do that. If we're going to use up capacity of our system in this environment, we're going to be looking to do that where we get our max tariff rates to be able to do it, so that it protects the economics of the project, and equally important, it protects affordability for all of our customers, because it pays its share, it absorbs part of those fixed costs. So, that's one of the ways we look to high-grade these projects. We're not chasing every opportunity that comes along, and we're not going to chase projects down to a lower and lower economic point. We're going to stay focused on how do we best utilize our system to serve that customer as well as protect our existing customers. So, I recognize that the boundaries of that answer were pretty wide, but that's the reality of the environment that we're operating in. David Rohlfs: Yep, fair enough. Okay, good. Thank you. Sid McAnnally: Thank you, David. Operator: That concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to hand it back to the ONE Gas team for closing remarks. Eric Biggers: Thank you again to everyone for your interest in ONE Gas. We look forward to seeing many of you at conferences in New York the second week of December. Our quiet period for the fourth quarter starts when we close our books in early January and extends until we release earnings in mid to late February. We will provide details about the conference call at a later date. Have a great day. Operator: This concludes the ONE Gas third quarter earnings conference call and webcast. You may now disconnect.
Data as of: November 4, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q) · Transcripts: transcript archive
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.